You could be bang on. I think he’s young enough and hungry enough he may want to go to a team he sees as having a real shot at a cup now but then again someone might be able to talk him into being a young leader on a young and up and coming team with all the benefits and so much less pressure etc.
He should have at least 1 more contract after this one (maybe more depending on how long he signs for) so the chance to jump to a contender and try and get a cup if he doesn’t have one as he enters the twilight of his career will be there. A place where he can maximize his earnings (as in his salary I’m not diving deep into all the taxes BS) and have much less pressure off the ice and can focus on his new family and perhaps having it grow might really appeal to him.
~Cush29
So I’ve seen it heavily suggested that Carolina is going in, as are Vegas. I think it’s a lot harder for Vegas because they would need to move pieces – pieces they have won with – out in order to afford Marner (like Karlsson or a Barbashev) – or possibly Hertl. I’ve also seen it suggested that Marner isn’t what Carolina needs and they know it – but they were willing to flip Rantanen for him.
The other names you hear a lot are LA and Utah. Lifestyle-wise, LA is cool and all – but I guess now that’s he’s a relatively newlywed with a newborn, they’d need to decide on what type of lifestyle they want. There are a lot of US markets that would offer a lot more anonymity and lot less vitriol than Toronto.
But with a young child, I’d imagine proximity to family is important to both. You may have money, but being cooped up in airplanes for hours on end all the time is exhausting.
It might be the lure to keep him on the east coast. You don’t hear a lot about the Rangers, likely because of their NMCs – but Drury has shown a real compunction to tell people to F-Off and want to get rid of them, so who knows?
I think if I were gambling, I’d lay odds on Carolina because of the east coast relationship. My dark horse would be Chicago because getting Bedard someone like Marner to play with would send a message that’s loud and clear.
That said, your point about San Jose is decent – but I think I’d be fearful that in 2 years I’m re-upping Celebrini, Smith Eklund and a few others (that won’t command nearly as much), but I don’t know if I want to invest 15% of my cap in a guy who will be 31 when I’m resigning Celebrini – and will be setting the bar for the contracts on the team.