I share the same sentiment. JT wants to remain and unless Treliving comes in insultingly low, a deal is going to get done.
Marner, I’m almost certain, is going to test the market and the only question left is whether the Leafs do a sign and trade or trade his rights to recoup some value.
Last year there was a lot of chatter about how everyone knew where certain free agents were going to sign prior to July 1 with the NHL saying that they were aware and were investigating (and I’m sure if it had been a Canadian team that as guilty, they’d have done something about it) – but with a high profile player like Marner, if teams start talking to him prior to July 1 or if it’s “a known done deal” before July 1, I’d suspect tampering could actually be brought up. It might be wise for an interested team to trade something to get that right to talk to him early. Carolina has Toronto’s 6th in 2026. That’s probably a fair trade to get a player’s negotiating rights.
Has any team in recent memory, let’s say, the past 10-15 years, with a player who fits the bill of Tavares been able to win a Cup?
I’d put Tavares in the category of: massive defensively liability, poor skating, 34-40 year old making 5-7 million getting top-six minutes and PP time with poor career playoff success. I’m going to guess; no.
If Tavares is on this team, even on a “discount”, the Leafs will still be fundamentally flawed and won’t be able to win a Cup with him on the roster. Much like how Duchene at 3 million seemed like a bargain for Dallas, Duchene was horrible at 5v5 and defensively for Dallas in the playoffs despite leading the team in scoring in the regular season. I see Tavares in the same light and I don’t think he gives the Leafs any real winning value unless he makes 1 million a year. At absolute most, 2 million AAV.
Tavares has made 112 million dollars in his career. Even with the government stealing 50% of that, Tavares is set for generations and can afford to play for 1-2 million a season if playing in Toronto is paramount to his existence. The Leafs, however, can’t afford to have Tavares at more than that.