by Jeremy Laura
In last year’s NHL Draft Lottery, folks complained that it was anticlimactic. All 16 teams in the lottery defaulted to their final position in the regular season standings. Now, people gripe that the 2025 Lottery produced too much movement. The New York Islanders jumped from 10th to the first overall pick. Meanwhile, Utah HC (now the Utah Mammoth) rose from 14th to fourth overall.
When the lottery results produce sharp risers, other teams fall. Alas, the Detroit Red Wings were among the “droppers”.
Detroit’s “lottery luck” was on full display once again. The team slipped one spot from 12th to 13th. Wings have become all too familiar with the nearly annual push back. Before the NHL altered the rules to a maximum two-spot slippage, it was even worse.Detroit dropped three spots on multiple occasions. The move from 12 to 13 isn’t massive. However, it is disappointing.
Once an Entry Draft spot is cemented, mock drafts follow. Some are automated, some are guesstimates.
Last year, for the first time Steve Yzerman’s tenure, multiple publications correctly guessed the pick. Michael Brandsegg-Nygard was the consensus choice. The reality aligned with the analysis. This year, there’s little pundit consensus.
Mixed forecast
Of nine sampled opinions, the following results appeared.
- Both the Bleacher Report and Tankathon have Detroit selecting Lynden Lakovic.
- MyNHLdraft.com predicts Brady Martin to Motown.
- Carter Bear received the most picks: NHL.com’s Adam Kimelman, the Daily Faceoff, and Lines.com all “selected” him for Detroit.
- Viktor Eklund secured the Red Wings spot for two outlets: NHL.com’s Mike Morreale and the New York Times.
- Justin Carbonneau received one Wing prediction in the nine mocks. SB Nation picked the right wing for Detroit.
The Bear Necessities
Today’s focus will be on “triple crown” winner Carter Bear. Listed at 6-foot even, the left shooting center is a borderline top-10 pick. At the upper end, pundits place him seventh overall. He’s a versatile forward. Bear can play center or wing with equal comfort. However, some pundits feel he’s best suited to the wing at the pro level.
Bear scored 82 points (40G, 42A) in 56 games for the Everett Silvertips of the Western Hockey League. His presence would be a welcome addition to the pipeline.
Truthfully, I do not expect Bear to fall to 13th spot. He has some skating deficiencies. This will probably keep him out of the top five or six of the Draft. However, Bear’s skating is fixable. He’ll get bigger and stronger. He’ll add more first-stride explosiveness over time. He’s far from the first prospect to face this process. Likewise, he won’t be the last.
I just don’t see 12 different NHL scouting departments and GMs bypassing Bear. If they do, though, it would be a gift to Yzerman. High-scoring, gritty players are in demand. Red Wings fans in particular have clamored for more players with the combination of scoring prowess and a physical edge. Bear having both traits in tandem drive the intrigue for his long-term upside.
Will he ever evolve into a speedster? Probably not. Does he need to? No. As long as he gets from Point A to Point B, it’s fine. Most pundits consider Bear’s innate hockey sense to be average to slightly above average. But that, too, can improve. He’ll play a very direct, north-south game. The equation: Determined drive plus physical tools plus good hands equals potential top-six forward.
The DeBrincat Factor (?)
Alex Debrincat knocked on the 40-goal door in 2024-25. He ended with 39. Also, the acquired winger developed into a stronger defensive presence. The trio of Debrincat, Marco Kasper and Patrick Kane became a clear fan favorite down the stretch.
Big picture: Detroit needs more scoring in the lineup. The third and fourth lines do not currently provide sufficient scoring depth. If Bear is on the Draft board at 13th, the Hockey Ops staff should strongly consider taking him.
As with Debrincat, the right line combination can get the most out of an individual member’s skill set. Moreover, it seems easier to add defense to supplement scoring than to add scoring to defense.
Injecting passion
Many Wings fans have “safe pick” fatigue. They want to see a shake up in Detroit’s status quo. Yes, the team’s attention to defensive detail needs improvement. Also needed: a fresh injection of offensive talent. This brings a different value.
In other words, there is an appetite for some “sizzle” in Motown. There’s also an appetite to add more muscle to the finesse.
From the beginning, Yzerman has defied most mock drafts and NHL Central scouting ratings. The now famous clip of Moritz Seider’s shock in 2019 laid the foundation for first round surprise. In this case, a move toward popular opinion would be welcome. If Carter Bear is there for the taking, 13 could indeed be a lucky number.
