A unique aspect of this season, at least the first half of it, is that anytime a player does well, there will be one question that follows. Are they good enough to make the Olympics? Are these players fueled by the Olympics or trying to shrug off the struggles from the Four Nations? Jack Hughes, for example, is off to a hot start, and there is a little extra field this season (as noted in last week’s column).
It’s happening with Cole Caufield, at least to some extent. He’s one of the game’s best scorers, with 10 goals, including three game-winners. It’s not just the goals but the clutch goals that make a convincing case from him. It’s what leads this week’s column.
The Starting Lineup:
- Cole Caufield’s case for the USA Olympic team & other young stars to watch.
- Why we overlooked the Penguins.
- How Trevor Zegras changes the Flyers rebuild.
- Providence & AHL notes.
- Quick Hits: Stamkos, Necas & more.
Watching Caufield score the overtime winner against the Seattle Kraken on Oct. 28, it’s easy to talk yourself into his case for the Olympic team. It turns out, there are plenty of hockey people who will be quick to point out his shortcomings.
Caufield Has a Great Case For Team USA’s Olympic Squad
Through 12 games, Caufield’s 10 goals have him tied with Nathan MacKinnon for the most in the NHL. It’s made him a long shot yet a strong candidate to win the Rocket Richard Trophy at the end of the season.
There are two fun facts with the trophy in mind. One, Caufield can become the first player on the Montreal Canadiens to win the award named after Canadiens legend Maurice “Rocket” Richard (it officially became an award in 1999 but the last time a Habs player led the league in scoring was 1977-78 when Guy LaFluer scored 60). Two, there have been 16 winners of the Rocket since 1999; only one has never made an Olympic, World Cup, or Four Nations roster (it’s Jonathan Cheechoo). In short, elite goal scorers are usually on the international stage, and Caufield’s established himself as one.
The USA team needs scoring. They didn’t get enough of it at the Four Nations, notably in the Final, where they lost 3-2 (leaving Kyle Connor off the team for that game didn’t help the cause either). Caufield is often labeled as one-dimensional, a shooter who only takes advantage of open looks. He’s proving this season that he can find the back of the net in multiple ways and from multiple spots in the offensive zone. On top of that, he’s one of the better skaters in the NHL, which allows the coaching staff to play him on a speed-based line that would mix up the pace and be tough to stop.
It’s also worth adding that the USA team has plenty of size and physicality already. They need speed. This is a particular issue for the Olympics, where the rink is bigger and it’s an open game, where physicality isn’t as much of a priority.
The obstacle Caufield faces is the same one Hughes dealt with at the Four Nations. It’s his size. He can get pushed around easily and fall apart in a heavy game, which can happen in the Olympics. One scout noted how he slows down and drops off when the game tightens up and space is hard to come by. This also explains the hot start to last season, where he scored 23 goals in the first 41 games and then only 16 goals in the second half, with only four goals in the final 16 games of the season (interestingly, he scored three goals in the five-game series against the Washington Capitals).
Those 10 goals, by the way, can be taken with a grain of salt. Three of them have been in overtime when it’s three-on-three hockey, which suits Caufield’s game better. He’s only scored five goals in five-on-five situations. So, there’s a case to be made that his scoring, his best attribute, is inflated.
Caufield’s off to another hot start. It’s too early to say whether it will last and whether it will be enough to sway Bill Guerin and the rest of the front office staff putting the team together. It’s unlikely since they will prioritize experience and size, two things USA has always favored over skill.
Who Makes The Team?
There will be plenty of time for projections and more projections. Then, there will be enough weeks to look at the snubs. The Olympic team will have the usual suspects and much of the same from the Four Nations roster (needless to say, expect both Tkachuk brothers to lead the way).
The handful of players who won’t be back (presumably) are Brock Nelson, Chris Kreider, and Vincent Trocheck. All three veterans struggled on the big stage last time around and are on the decline. Throw in a possible injury, and there will be at least three spots up for grabs. So, who grabs those spots?
Tage Thompson is everyone’s pick. He’s a power forward with a great shot and plenty of skill. Plus, he’s starting to find his footing on a Buffalo Sabres team that started the season in a downward spiral (he has four goals in his last five games). Then there are the young skaters like Logan Cooley, who is starting to emerge as one of the best in the game with eight goals and four assists through 12 games. Cooley is a star in the making but at 21 years old, is still viewed as too young to make it (so they’ll probably prefer someone experienced on the international stage like Patrick Kane).
Cooley, like Caufield, is an exciting young player to watch. That’s not what wins Gold Medals, at least in the eyes of the team-builders. Two-way players do, and so does experience, from the playoffs to previous Olympics.
So, Which Young Stars Will Make it (for any country)?
The 2020 draft class seems like the cutoff year for young players. Jake Sanderson and Seth Jarvis are presumed locks, while Tim Stutzle will lead Germany. After that, it doesn’t seem like a young star will make it to the Olympics, although there are a few names to keep in mind.
Strong Candidates: Macklin Celebrini, Logan Cooley, Leo Carlsson, and Lane Hutson
Yes, With A Few Breaks: Connor Bedard, Juraj Slafkovsky, and Matthew Schaefer
Not Now But Maybe Soon: Adam Fantilli, Cutter Gauthier, Frank Nazar, Logan Stankoven, and Wyatt Johnston.
The future for hockey is bright and exciting. The only problem for the upcoming Olympics is that teams won’t value youth. Sweden or another country may roll the dice with a youth movement featuring a player like Leo Carlsson, and it pays off but for the most part, expect experience. But don’t worry, the 2030 Olympics are when the above-mentioned players will be in their primes and dominating hockey.
Why We Were Wrong With The Penguins
When the Penguins started the season hot, everyone assumed they would regress to the mean. It’s a hot start but they are one of the worst teams in the NHL and would return to the bottom of the standings. At some point, the hot start stopped looking like a fluke. Maybe it was after their Oct. 23 win over the Florida Panthers, a 5-3 victory that extended their winning streak to four games. Maybe it was the 4-1 win against the Minnesota Wild to wrap up October with a three-game point streak.
13 games into the season, and the Penguins are 8-3-2 with one of the best records in the Metropolitan Division. Sure, it’s unlikely they keep this pace up the entire season but it’s clear that this was an overlooked team that is better than everyone expected before the season. So, how did the Penguins sneak up on everyone? There are five keys to their hot start, which also explain why they might be in for a big season ahead.
1: Justin Brazeau, Ryan Shea, and Parker Wotherspoon are the young NHL who are finally hitting their strides.
A common theme in hockey is that teams are impatient with their prospects and quick to move on from them. The Arizona Coyotes and Chicago Blackhawks gave up on Dylan Strome while he was still developing and learning the pro game. It’s not a coincidence that his rise happened at the same time that the Capitals became a top team in the Eastern Conference.
Justin Brazeau is that type of player to a lesser degree. The Boston Bruins developed him with the American Hockey League (AHL) team but at 26, he didn’t see enough improvement to keep him as a regular on the NHL team. The Penguins gave him that chance, and at 27, he’s a point-per-game player and a vital part of their top six.
The same is true about Parker Wotherspoon, who the New York Islanders and Bruins let go when they didn’t see him as a prospect anymore. At 28, he’s emerged as a stay-at-home defenseman with the Penguins with 1.1 defensive point shares, 21 blocked shots, while averaging 21:36 ice time. Likewise, Ryan Shea spent multiple seasons in the AHL with the Texas Stars, learning the defense position, and is now a viable depth option.
An underlying issue with the Penguins in recent years was that they lacked NHL talent in its prime years. Either the roster was over the hill, or there were too many prospects. They took a chance on a few players in their age 27-28 years, the years when players are in their primes, and it’s paid off.
2. The goaltending has helped.
Last season, the Penguins had some of the worst goaltending in the NHL. So, they were due for a better season just with the play in the net improving. The Arturs Silovs addition made all the difference. Aside from being a great starter, he’s allowed the Penguins to split starts between him and Tristan Jarry to form a strong duo.
The team’s goaltending unit last season had -20.7 goals saved above average (GSAA). This season, it’s 8.9 GSAA. That swing alone can explain why the Penguins are off to a hot start.
The Penguins were making a risky move and betting on Silovs in the summer. They acquired a goaltender who was great at the AHL level but struggled in the NHL with the Vancouver Canucks. The Penguins brought him in to split starts with Jarry, and he doesn’t look like a star but he’s been good enough to prevent them from falling in the standings.
3. The farm system is better than many expected.
The Penguins lack a star in their prospect pool, and it’s why the group is overlooked. They have a handful of prospects who can be reliable contributors on a given night, and it shows. Harrison Brunicke made the opening night roster, while Owen Pickering has had a few stints with the NHL team. Both skaters have added depth and a burst of speed to the defense. Ville Koivunen hasn’t found the scoresheet but he’s a great skater who helps the Penguins play fast.
Then there’s Ben Kindel, a player many thought the Penguins reached on in the 2025 draft. He was selected with the 11th overall pick but already has three goals and is one of their better forwards.
The Penguins also have more prospects on the way, something their AHL team displays on a nightly basis. It’s why the turnaround for the Penguins, if they choose to take that route, can happen faster than anticipated.
4. Dan Muse and the coaching staff have helped.
Mike Sullivan is one of the best coaches in the NHL. That said, his system, voice, and impact weren’t connecting with the group anymore, and a change was needed. Dan Muse has provided a fresh perspective while getting the most out of the roster.
One thing that’s stood out is his management of the lines. Instead of leaning on Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin to win games, he’s balanced the lines, relying on depth to win games more so than Sullivan would. The balance and the structure defensively have the Penguins playing winning hockey.
It’s worth adding that it’s not Muse alone behind the bench. It’s a new coaching staff that features Nick Bonino and Todd Nelson. Bonino recently retired and is a great messenger for the players while Nelson had plenty of success at the AHL level and is a player-friendly coach, especially with the younger players.
5. Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin are still playing at a high level.
Crosby being dominant and scoring nine goals and seven assists in 13 games isn’t a surprise. What is a surprise is Evgeni Malkin turning back the clock. He has 15 assists and has made Brazeau and Anthony Mantha better by creating plenty of scoring chances for them. With Crosby and Malkin playing well, it’s hard to see the Penguins falling in the standings any time soon.
Sure, there’s a good chance the Penguins don’t keep this pace up. They might drop to a wild card spot in a few weeks and miss the playoffs by the end of the season. At the same time, this team will be far from a lottery position, which is a surprise considering that’s where everyone expected them to be at the start of the season.
Trevor Zegras Changes The Flyers Rebuild
Trevor Zegras is the only point-per-game player on the Flyers through 12 games. It’s one thing to win the trade as the Flyers got the better player in the deal and someone with elite talent. It’s another to do a victory lap, taking a player who looked like damaged goods in his final season with the Anaheim Ducks and watching him become a key part of the offense.
With four goals and nine assists, Zegras isn’t just a playmaker or a highlight reel. He’s doing it all for the Flyers. He’s set up scoring chances when the games slow down and, similarly, has found open skaters while taking hits in the offensive zone. Zegras can also make an impact in space or on the rush and find the back of the net when a good look is available.
His versatility has allowed Rick Tocchet to move him around in the top six. Zegras has spent time on the wing and at center while his linemates have been shuffled all season (although to be fair, that says more about Tocchet’s willingness to blend the lines). Through all of it, Zegras is the steady producer in the offense that general manager (GM) Daniel Brier hoped he’d become when the trade was made.
How He Changes The Rebuild
The Flyers hope that Zegras can eventually become a top-six center. It saves them a lot of headaches and bodes well for their future. The Flyers have struggled up the middle for years and have searched for elite skill at the center position.
There’s a chance Zegras is that. Noah Cates has shown flashes but is a good, not great player. Jett Luchanko and Jack Nesbitt are the top two centers in the prospect pool but are far from the NHL and haven’t shown that upside (at least not yet). Between Luchanko and Nesbitt, there’s a good chance the Flyers have another top-six center or at least a middle-six option who can also do it all.
It makes Zegras a wild card in the rebuild. Yes, he can also stay on the wing, which has fewer responsibilities and might be best for the offense, especially his shooting. However, the Flyers have plenty of wing talent on the NHL roster and in the pipeline. Zegras becoming a top-six center and playing well in that role changes everything.
It saves Briere the hassle of searching for another center, whether it’s in the draft or in a trade. Zegras and the young core carrying the Flyers also allows players like Travis Konecny and Sean Couturier to settle into depth roles, especially in the back half of their careers. Zegras isn’t the glue or the straw that stirs the drink but his play changes the dynamics of the forward group and the rebuild as a whole.
Is Zegras The Star to Build Around? Not So Fast!
The overall sentiment in Philadelphia is that they are building this team around Matvei Michkov. He’s the star and future of the team, and they go as he goes. While the hot start from Zegras provides optimism, the slow start from Michkov, with only six points in 12 games, is a concern. It’s why the Flyers must get him going, even if his ice time is limited by Tocchet, if they hope to see any big-picture success.
Zegras is off to a great start and is an exciting player to watch but he won’t carry this team. Michkov will, and eventually Martone or the other prospects might as well. Zegras helps the Flyers move closer to contention. The other forwards will get them over the finish line.
It’s also important to add that the rebuild goes with the defense. For the Flyers to have success, they need Jamie Drysdayl and Cam York to be great and anchor the unit (plus, another young blue liner will help).
Providence Bucking The Trend For Success & Other AHL Notes
The Providence Bruins entered the weekend with a 7-0 record. They lost to the Hershey Bears in a 2-0 defensive struggle but recovered on Sunday with a 5-2 win over the Charlotte Checkers. They no longer boast the best record in the AHL (the undefeated Grand Rapids Griffins do) but they look like the best team in the league regardless. The fascination with the Bruins is that they’ve taken an unconventional route to the top.
Most teams in the AHL focus on their prospects, the 19 or 20-year-olds with the most potential. They blend the youth with veterans who are established stars, players like Alex Belzille or Chris Terry, and journeymen players who have been great in the league for a while. The Bruins are winning games with a handful of 24 and 25-year-old players that other teams have forgotten about.
In a league that is valuing youth and giving up on those older players, even if those older players are still prospects, the Bruins are betting on them. Riley Tufte was with the Stars and Colorado Avalanche beforehand but at 27, he’s a veteran who is leading the AHL with 14 points. Matej Blumel spent the past three seasons with the Stars and, at 25, is off to a career year with 10 points in nine games. The Bruins have prospects but they also have those players who can get called up to the NHL on a given night and deliver.
The other thing that stands out about the Bruins is their approach. Most teams move the puck up the ice with their defensemen. Either the defensemen chip the puck out of the defensive zone or carry it. Under Ryan Mougenel, the Bruins let their forwards carry the puck while the defensemen trail the play, a strategy that was commonplace in the 1970s when there were few puck-handling defensemen. When executed well, it’s hard to defend and it’s another example of them bucking the trend to find success.
The question is whether the Bruins have something sustainable or if they will decline after their hot start. Their roster will change halfway through the season, especially when the NHL team needs reinforcements. That said, they have a great infrastructure in place to avoid a drop off, even if that happens.
Other AHL Notes
I was in Hartford for the back-to-back between the Lehigh Valley Phantoms and the Hartford Wolf Pack. It’s hard to ignore the differences in the two teams. The Wolf Pack look promising, and with a four-game point streak, they are putting together a good team. The Phantoms, who won both games in overtime, proved that they are ahead of schedule and building something special.
The Phantoms provide a few other notes. Alex Bump found his footing over the weekend. He’s a player who has highs and lows where he’ll score and score in bunches, such is the life of a shooter on the wing. Then there’s the play of Christian Kyrou, the defenseman whom the Phantoms acquired in the Samu Tuomaala trade. There are a few parallels to the Drysdale trade, which the Flyers gave up Gauthier to make work. Tuomaala can develop into an elite player with the Stars but the Flyers addressed an organizational need, adding a defenseman who can skate and handle the puck.
The Hershey Bears are starting to find their footing. They won in a shootout on Oct. 25 and then won three games in a row on the road in their first road trip of the season. Their 2-0 win over the Bruins shows that they are back, or at least Derek King is starting to find out what works defensively with the Bears.
The Utica Comets entered November with a 0-6-1 record and faced a Wilkes-Barre Scranton Penguins team that was 8-1. The Comets won the game 3-1. That’s hockey sometimes, where the worst team in the league can show up and beat the best.
Quick Hits: Stamkos, Crazy Scoring Splits & More
The Steven Stamkos contract talks are interesting. He signed a four-year deal in 2024, and it’s already looked like a disaster for the future Hall of Famer and the Nashville Predators (he only has one goal and one assist this season). If only there were a way out.
The first question is whether the contract is moveable? The $8 million average annual value (AAV) is a lot but not a dealbreaker with the cap going up and the Predators taking on some of the salary. The problem is Stamkos has a no-trade clause, so he can choose his destination if a trade is necessary. So, which teams would Stamkos want to join, and which teams want him?
The only two that make sense are the Tampa Bay Lightning and the Toronto Maple Leafs (only because he’s a playoff-proven player who can finish his career in Ontario). One scout noted how Stamkos doesn’t address any needs for the Maple Leafs, who have left wingers and scorers when they need right-wing help and playmakers.
- Speaking of the Maple Leafs, it looked like they were turning a corner with three wins in four games. Then, Chris Tanev takes a scary hit in the Saturday game against the Flyers. The timetable is unknown but for a team that already had issues, they can’t afford to lose Tanev for more games.
- Kiefer Sherwood had a hat trick for the Canucks on Thursday. It’s a weird season for him as he’s scored nine goals but has no assists. Pavel Dorofeyev (nine goals and one assist) and Morgan Geekie (nine goals and two assists) are having similar seasons. Some hockey people joke that they are having “Cy Young” seasons, a reference to a pitcher’s win-loss record but replaced by goals and assists (Sherwood is 9-0 on the season).
- Speaking of pitchers, Yoshinobu Yamamoto had a fun moment in the World Series. He closed out Game 7 but did so with a Golden Pitch scenario. That is when the next pitch can win or lose the World Series. Yamamoto is only the ninth pitcher in the history of the series to be in this scenario. The comparison for hockey is a Golden Goal, where an overtime goal wins or loses a series. Canadians will quickly point to the Sidney Crosby Olympic winner as the Golden Goal but in the NHL, it’s a rarity. There have only been two Stanley Cup Finals that went to a Game 7 sudden-death overtime: 1950 and 1954. The goals were scored by Pete Babando and Tony Leswick (so now you have that trivia question ready to go).
