There’s that meme of the two people looking out the window, with one side looking grim and bleak and the other looking sunny and nice. That’s the meme that keeps coming to mind when being asked to watch the Eastern Conference Final and the Western Conference Final.
The Eastern Conference Final seems all but wrapped up. The Florida Panthers have a 3-0 series lead over the Carolina Hurricanes and have outscored them 16-4. The Western Conference Final is 2-1 in favor of the Edmonton Oilers, and they’ve won back-to-back games by a combined score of 9-1. However, the Dallas Stars are one win away from flipping the script on that series.
In this column, we’ll explore the following:
- The Hurricanes have core issues.
- The case for Aleksander Barkov to win the Conn Smythe.
- McDavid’s underrated value.
- Stars are showing roster flaws but they are fixable.
- Quick Hits: Calder Cup Check-In
The Hurricanes are on the verge of elimination, and there are plenty of reasons why. Here’s one that stands out.
Hurricanes Core Problems
Here’s something to consider. The trio of Sebastian Aho, Seth Jarvis, and Andrei Svechnikov is the anchors of the Hurricanes forward unit and offense altogether. They are the three skaters (with Jaccob Slavin on defense) that this team build around. They’ve disappeared in this series.
Aho, Jarvis, and Svechnikov through the first 10 playoff games: 15 goals and 14 assists.
Hurricanes trio in the last three games: two goals and four assists.
The Hurricanes have a good core for the regular season and can beat noticeably flawed teams. It’s what they did to an injury-plagued New Jersey Devils team and the Washington Capitals, who had a great regular season but, like the Hurricanes, weren’t built for the playoffs. The problem is that when they run into a team like the Panthers, they run into a wall.
It’s what happens when a team invests in three forwards who can’t adapt and can’t find dirty-area goals. The Panthers force them out of their comfort zone and dare them to fight for goals in the crease, and they have no answers.
This is why the Hurricanes traded for Jake Guentzel last year. It’s why they traded for Mikko Rantanen this year. They need that player who can get them over the hump. This team will likely be staring at a long offseason in a few days. The answer for them is to make that splash and get that player who moves the needle. They might not fit in Rod Brind’Amour’s system, like Rantanen didn’t this season, but they’ll make a difference in the playoffs.
The Case For Barkov to Win The Conn Smythe
Everyone is talking about Rantanen for the Conn Smythe Trophy, and if not him, it’s Connor McDavid. They deserve the coverage and recognition as the top two players in the playoffs so far.
That said, there’s some surprise to see Aleksander Barkov’s Conn Smythe odds are so low. He has 10-1 odds on ESPN Bet at the time of this typing. He’s not even the favorite to win the Conn Smythe on the Panthers (Sergei Bobrovsky is).
Barkov might be the most overlooked superstar in hockey, and all sports for that matter. Ask a casual Florida sports fan to name a star player in their state (or the city of Miami). Does Barkov come up? Does his name even come up when asking a fan to name five Panthers?
Yet, he’s having a remarkable playoff run. With six goals and nine assists, Barkov has 15 points, the most on the Panthers and fourth-most among all players. His offense is only half the story. Centering the top line, he’s playing great defense and turning turnovers into offense the other way. He’s arguably the most valuable player in the series against the Hurricanes as he’s shutting them down while also creating offense on the other end of the ice.
Barkov will be in the Final again and playing a key role in the Panthers’ forward unit. If they win the Cup, it will be in part because of him. It’s hard to notice his value most of the time yet, Barkov’s the best skater on the ice more often than not.
There was a good case for Barkov to win the Conn Smythe Trophy last year. He didn’t have the stats offensively but he shut down McDavid in Game 6 and Game 7 to help the Panthers win the Cup. If the Panthers win it this time around, it will be hard to ignore his case.
Everyone Talks About McDavid’s Offense, What About His Defense?
Rantanen hasn’t scored in five games, and it’s a credit to the team defense the Oilers are playing. They aren’t giving Rantanen a lot of open looks. However, the standouts in this series are Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, with McDavid stepping up on the defensive end of the ice to often limit the elite skater on the other side.
Game 3 was a showcase of McDavid’s ability to take a turnover and make it a goal within seconds. The Oilers boasted a 1-0 lead, and he won the puck battle along the boards and moved it up the ice to set up a three-on-one rush chance. With a few quick passes, McDavid found the back of the net for the second Oiler goal in 30 seconds.
Later on in the game, McDavid cycled the puck around the offensive zone, and after losing possession, he chased down Rantanen with the puck. The pinch in from Evan Bouchard allowed McDavid to collect the puck and, with a quick wrister, score his second of the night in a 6-1 win.
For the Oilers to win this series, they needed McDavid and Draisaitl to step up on both ends of the ice. McDavid uses his speed to impact the games in multiple ways, and it’s another case in point of why he’s the greatest player in the game. When the Oilers need to win with defense, they can rely on him to do it. They got both defense and offense out of him, and it led to a dominant performance.
Stars Are Down But Not Out
The Stars aren’t playing great, at least not in the last two games. They look like a team that’s become dependent on their elite skaters and hoping Jake Oettinger can bail them out. They have one of the deepest forward groups in the NHL, yet only four forwards have found the back of the net in this series.
On top of that, the Stars are also playing a sloppy brand of hockey, where defensive breakdowns and loose pucks are allowing the Oilers to run up the score. It’s not the type of hockey championship teams play. That said, there are three reasons to believe in the Stars.
- Wyatt Johnston, Matt Duchene, and Jason Robertson still haven’t gotten going in this series (they have two goals and an assist). Johnston has been off the scoresheet altogether, yet as the team’s best scorer, he’s bound to get some looks as the series goes on.
- Thomas Harley scored four goals and seven assists in the first two rounds and hasn’t recorded a point in this series. He’ll start firing the puck at the net more in the upcoming games.
- Oettinger usually bounces back after forgettable starts, and Game 3 was one.
The Stars’ talent is unquestioned. Jim Nill built a Stanley Cup contender, and they have all the pieces in place to win it all. They can make this a series. The question is if they will. It starts with a pivotal Game 4.
Quick Hits: Calder Cup Check-In
- The Charlotte Checkers swept the Hershey Bears to end one of the best runs in recent memory (the Bears won nine playoff series in a row). Otherwise, every matchup went the distance, proving how thin the margin is from winning the Calder Cup and an early playoff exit.
- The Texas Stars took Game 5 over the Milwaukee Admirals with a 3-2 victory. The game-winning goal was scored by 24-year-old forward Justin Hryckowian, who now has seven goals in the playoffs. He’s just another prospect for the Stars to have in their back pocket, as if they didn’t have enough young talent on their roster.
- The Rochester Americans put up a fight against the Laval Rocket, winning Games 2 and 4 to force a winner-take-all game. But, at the end of the day, the Rocket were the more talented team and it showed with a decisive 5-0 win in Game 5. With prospects like Joshua Roy, Logan Mailloux, and Owen Beck playing at a high level, this is the team to beat.
- The Colorado Eagles host the Abbotsford Canucks in a deceive Game 5 on Monday afternoon (3 PM mountain time). A Memorial Day afternoon game to decide the series is a choice but for a league where the fans are the only thing that matters, it looks to be a packed arena for the big game (per the Eagles’ social media, they sold out tickets).
