One way to describe the weekend and past week, for that matter, is anticipation. For hockey fans, it’s all about the Stanley Cup Final and counting down the days until Game 1 between the Edmonton Oilers and the Florida Panthers.
The matchup is set, and it’s the first rematch in the Final since 2008 and 2009, when the Detroit Red Wings faced the Pittsburgh Penguins. The Oilers and Panthers are sure to provide a great series, and it’s where we start this week’s column.
In this column, we’ll explore the following:
- A fun rematch, both on the ice and historically.
- The matchups that will decide the series.
- The Dallas Stars must replace Pete DeBoer, not just for his Game 5 gaffe.
- Seattle Kraken hire Lane Lambert: A lackluster move.
- Quick Hits: Calder Cup Check-In
It’s only fitting to start with the rematch. It’s one we’ve waited all year for and one that’s years in the making.
Oilers & Panthers Rematch: The Stars & History
This is what we as hockey fans live for! It all comes down to the Oilers trying to even up the score and the Panthers looking to become the next dynasty in the NHL. There are so many things to point to, so it’s hard to find a place to start with this series.
Well, the star power does stand out. Connor McDavid is the best player in the game and almost fueled a series comeback last year, allowing him to win the Conn Smythe Trophy in a losing effort. Yet, the Cup still eludes him, and his legacy feels incomplete without the trophy. Leon Draisaitl is a top-five player in the game and a Hart Trophy candidate. Then the Panthers have star power throughout their lineup from Matthew Tkachuk on the top line to Brad Marchand on the third line.
Rarely does the NHL have a best-on-best in the Final. That’s what this one is. Better yet, both teams are better this time around. The Panthers are playing their best hockey at the right time, and streamrolling the Carolina Hurricanes in the Eastern Conference Final was a case in point. The Oilers are prepared for the big stage and the pressure of the Final, something that overwhelmed them last time around.
This is also the first rematch since the 2009 Final, when the Penguins and Red Wings met for a second year in a row. The parallels can be drawn with the star power of Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin leading the Penguins, while the Red Wings were the model franchise looking to put a bow on a remarkable run.
There’s also the comparison to the 1984 rematch when the Oilers defeated the New York Islanders. That came one season after Wayne Gretzky, Mark Messier, and the rest of the Oielrs saw firsthand how hard it is to win it all. They took it up a notch for the rematch to end the Islanders dynasty and start their own.
Of course, everyone will compare McDavid to Gretzky and Crosby, two generational stars who lost before they won. The other, and possibly more accurate comparison if Alexander Ovechkin, who was a star who could neven get over the hump and finally did in 2018, his 13th season in the NHL. McDavid is in his 10th season, and nobody deserves to win the Cup more than him.
The narratives favor the Oilers, making them a favorable pick for many fans and experts. So, there are two teams to compare the Panthers to. The first is a recent one, the Tampa Bay Lightning. They won back-to-back titles and reached the Final three years in a row, making them the model franchise in the NHL before the Panthers arrived. The other comparable team is the Montreal Canadiens from the 1970s, who faced a good Boston Bruins team twice in a row and beat them en route to five consecutive championships.
The narratives favor the Oilers, and it makes them a favorable pick for many fans and experts. So, there are two comps for the Panthers. The first is the Lightning, who won back-to-back earlier this decade and were the model franchise before the Panthers. The other comp can be the Montreal Canadiens from the 1970s, who faced the Bruins twice in a row and beat them.
So, for a Final that can go either way, take your pick.
The Matchups That Will Decide The Final
It’s easy to look at the two teams and try comparing the offense of one to the offense of the other. That’s not how the games will play out. So, let’s look at three matchups and do so with three questions.
Question 1: Will the Oilers split McDavid & Draisaitl? If they do, how do the Panthers respond?
The Oilers, for the most part, have McDavid and Draisaitl on the same line for this playoff run, splitting them occasionally for better matchups. It’s worked with the duo contributing 13 goals and 38 assists in 16 playoff games.
The thing is, the duo goes up against Aleksander Barkov, the best two-way center in the NHL, who shut down McDavid in Game 6 and Game 7 a year ago. Barkov is good enough, and he’s centering a line with Sam Reinhart on it, who was a Selke Trophy nominee this season.
So, splitting McDavid and Draisaitl makes sense from that standpoint, especially if the Oilers want to allow Draisaitl to find more open looks. How do the Panthers counter? The initial thought is they’ll move Reinhart off the Barkov line but that messes with chemistry and hurts the offense. The other option is to force the Carter Verhaeghe, Sam Bennett, and Matthew Tkachuk line to stop Draisaitl. Or leave it to the Anton Lundell line, which has stepped up during the playoffs on both ends of the ice.
Either way, this is where the Oilers will either run up the score or the Panthers will shut them down. It makes for an interesting chess match.
Question 2: Can Evan Bouchard create chaos in front of Sergei Bobrovsky & can the Panthers defensemen do the same against Stuart Skinner?
Both goaltenders are playing great heading into the Final. It seems like there’s no way to beat Sergei Bobrovsky or Stuart Skinner. One way is to get pucks on the net from the point. Those shots will either zip through traffic and find the back of the net or create rebounds for the forwards to power into the goal.
The Oilers need Evan Bouchard to stay hot. His “Bouch Bombs” have resulted in six goals in this playoff run and have created plenty of scoring chances for the offense. The Panthers, meanwhile, need the entire defense to generate shots from the blue line and will lean on Aaron Ekblad and Seth Jones in particular to do so.
Question 3: Will the Panthers still find offense from their third line?
This is where the Panthers can exploit the Oilers. Their third line of Eetu Luostarinen, Anton Lundell, and Brad Marchand has 11 goals and 27 assists in the playoffs. Calling it a “third line” is somewhat sarcastic. They are shredding the bottom six and the later pairings of their opponents and giving the Panthers a clear-cut advantage in the playoffs.
This line will test the Oilers and their depth. In the playoffs, the depth has held up at both the forward position and on defense. That said, forwards like Jeff Skinner and Connor Brown will have their hands full, and so will defensemen Jake Walman and John Klingberg.
Pete DeBoer’s Issues Go Beyond Game 5
To start, it’s important to note that Pete DeBoer is a great head coach. He’s won everywhere he’s gone, and if fired, a team will eagerly look to hire him. Removing Jake Oettinger from a game with the season on the line is a fireable offense for most coaches, yet DeBoer has the reputation to remain with the Dallas Stars.
He shouldn’t, and it’s because of where the Stars are and their limitations under DeBoer. For all his coaching accolades and Game 7 wins, DeBoer has only appeared in the Stanley Cup Final twice. The last time was in the 2016 Final with the San Jose Sharks, which was nearly a decade back.
DeBoer is not a good coach against the great teams and in the later rounds. He won’t win matchups and won’t pivot either in the playoffs to win. It’s why the Stars lost in the Western Conference Final and lost badly to the Oilers. Aside from the first period of Game 1, the series was one-sided.
This isn’t the first time DeBoer’s reached a big playoff series only to look outmatched against a better coach. Craig Berube had his number in the 2019 Western Conference Final, and Bruce Cassidy led a dominant series against him in 2023. When DeBoer goes up against a great coach, he has no answers.
The expectations have changed in Dallas. They are no longer a great team poised to compete. This is a team with a Cup or bust mentality. It’s why the Stars need a new head coach, someone who will get them over the hump.
Kraken Hire Lane Lambert: An Underwhelming Hire
You can talk yourself into the Lane Lambert hire. He was given a bad hand with the New York Islanders and is a great assistant who understands the game. He also runs a fast system where the defensemen join the rush, something that will help the Seattle Kraken, a team that has always struggled on offense.
Lambert’s issues stem from his assistant background. By nature, he’s the player-friendly coach behind the bench. Everywhere Lambert went, he was the coach the players could relate to and often rally behind. The problem is that, as the head coach, there must be accountability and discipline.
That was his undoing with the Islanders. By the end of his tenure, the Islanders were an undisciplined team that took too many penalties, couldn’t defend, and couldn’t hold a lead in the third period. It’s possible Lambert learned from his mistakes but the Kraken hires him one season removed from all these issues.
This is the type of retread hire a team makes when they aren’t a serious franchise and not a destination. Both of which can be true about the Kraken, a team that isn’t great and hasn’t been since their inaugural 2021-22 season.
Quick Hits: Calder Cup Check-In
- The conference final round in the NHL wasn’t competitive, and the American Hockey League is looking to up the ante. The Charlotte Checkers took a 3-0 series lead with their win on Sunday while the Abbotsford Canucks have a 2-0 series lead.
- The Checkers are dominating the Laval Rocket, a team that had the best record in the AHL this season, yet is being outscored 15-4 through three games. The Checkers play a similar style to their NHL affiliate, the Florida Panthers, as they forecheck, push the puck up the ice, and pressure opponents with a surplus of shots every night.
- The Canucks have a 2-0 series lead over the Texas Stars thanks to their goaltender, Arturs Silovs, who somehow plays better in the playoffs. He had a .908 save percentage (SV%) and a 2.41 goals-against average (GAA) in 21 games this season. In the playoffs, he has a .941 SV% and a 1.61 GAA with five shutouts. So, a bright spot for Vancouver is that if they are good enough to be a playoff team next season, they’ll have someone to turn to. For now, he’s leading the AHL group on a remarkable run with the team only six wins away from a Calder Cup title.
