A classic post on social media comes on opening night. A player scores a goal. Someone cracks, “Hey! That player’s on pace for an 82-goal season!” Even better, when the player scores in the first period, he os on pace for a 246-goal season. It’s one of the many ways to describe the overreaction and overreaction culture that takes over the first week of the season.
Every team has played two or three games, and it’s hard to read much into them. That said, there are some things worth monitoring, and that’s what will happen here.
In this week’s column, we’ll look at…
- The hot starts: Which are for real & which are fool’s gold.
- The red flags in the Kings defense.
- Are the Flames overworking Dustin Wolf?
- Colten Ellis getting claimed off waivers & other AHL notes.
- Canadiens, Sabres & Other Quick Hits
So, since this piece has plenty to discuss, let’s dive right in!!
Which Hot Starts are for Real & Which are Fool’s Gold?
There are five undefeated teams in the NHL, plus another four teams that have yet to lose in regulation (the Vegas Golden Knights already have two overtime losses under their belt). Which starts are sustainable and which ones are fool’s gold?
- Florida Panthers – Nobody is doubting the Panthers. Even with two one-goal games and injuries to star players, they still look like the team to beat in the NHL. And they will be until proven otherwise.
- Dallas Stars – Two games are enough to tell that this team is going to be dominant, especially on the offensive end. There’s a chance Mikko Rantanen puts together a Hart Trophy-caliber season and Jason Robertson has a career year (which would work out well for him, considering his contract is up after the season).
- Carolina Hurricanes – The Hurricanes look like one of the best teams in the NHL. That said, it’s the same story with them, and until they look like a team that can beat the best in the Eastern Conference, their reputation as a great regular-season team will remain.
- Boston Bruins – The Bruins are the first unknown of the unbeatens. Yes, they have a 3-0 record, and there’s been some promising signs. The defense looks great, and Jeremy Swayman is bouncing back in the net. At the same time, the question is how they’ll hold up in the long term, and the Hampus Lindholm injury is certainly a concern (even if new head coach Marco Sturm provided an optimistic timeline for his return).
- Seattle Kraken – The one team to cast a doubt about is the Kraken. They were the team many expected to finish at the bottom of the NHL, yet they have two early-season wins. The question marks are still there with this team but if there’s one thing everyone overlooked, it’s Lane Lambert behind the bench. The new head coach looks a lot different compared to his first stop in the NHL (he literally looks different). But more importantly, he’s learned from his mistakes and might be the coach to get the most out of this Kraken group.
The other teams with hot starts that are expected to remain are the Colorado Avalanche and the Edmonton Oilers. They’ve both lost one game in overtime. Otherwise, they’ve been two of the most dominant teams in the NHL. Better yet, these two teams have all the pieces in place to make deep playoff runs, and there’s a good chance these teams meet in the Western Conference Final, considering how they’ve played.
The Kings Have Significant Concerns on Defense
12 goals in three games is a cause for concern but not a red flag per se. It’s how the Los Angeles Kings have looked defensively to allow those goals. Their one win, oddly enough, was their worst night defensively, as they barely defeated the Vegas Golden Knights 6-5 in a shootout. The Kings are struggling on defense, and it’s an issue that could ultimately have them a step behind in the Pacific Division.
The issues start with their offseason moves. Their new general manager (GM) tried replacing Vladislav Gavrikov with Cody Ceci and Brian Dumoulin. The quantity of veterans doesn’t replace the quality of Gavrikov and what he brought to the defense every night.
Gavrikov was a key part of the defense, and the offseason additions failed to replace what he provided. He moved the puck up the ice, shut down opponents, and didn’t turn the puck over in the neutral zone. The Ceci and Dumoulin duo have had the opposite result. The fallout can range from a step back to the unit being a mess that continues to cost the Kings games.
The question is what fixes are on the table? The Kings have a Ceci-Dumoulin pair they must move on from or figure out before it’s too late. The best solution, at least internally, is giving Brandt Clarke more ice time, allowing the 22-year-old defenseman to continue developing while covering up some of the issues on the unit. Drew Doughty and Mikey Anderson are the top two defenseman but the Kings are searching for reinforcements. Clarke is the best option from within.
The other option is for the Kings to actively shop for a blueliner. The assumption is they trade for one if they are in the playoff discussion but if there’s one thing Holland has proven in his GM tenure, it’s that he’ll still make a big move even if the team isn’t a Cup contender. He’s going to buy in, and part of that likely means he’ll add a defenseman, specifically, one who can skate, to the roster.
Are the Flames Overworking Dustin Wolf?
The Calgary Flames started the season with three games in three-and-a-half days. That’s rough. It’s even rougher when there are multiple times zones involved (MDT to PDT and back to MDT). Dustin Wolf started all three games.
Normally, a team starts the backup in at least one of the games. That’s the type of situation where the backup goalie gets one of the games. Usually, it’s the middle game/ second half of the back to back. Ryan Huska chose otherwise.
Wolf’s .865 save percentage (SV%) and 3.99 goals-against average (GAA) aren’t indicative of his play.He’s faced 89 shots, the most of any goaltender in the NHL so far. He played brilliantly in the opener in Edmonton. Wolf had a subpar performance by his standards the next night in Vancouver. In Saturday’s home opener against St. Louis, Wolf’s play was somewhere in the middle. Joel Hofer outplayed him when all was said and done.
That’s all fleeting. Here’s the big picture. The Flames are overworking him. The team is 1-2-0 and has been outscored 9-3 in the last two games. The Flames were the better team for most of the first two periods against the Blues. Hofer — and the goal posts — carried the day by the end.
The Flames overrely on Wolf. They underestimated Dan Vladar. Now with Philadelphia, Vladar by no means is a true starting NHL goalie. Perhaps he can be the 1B in a tandem. At minimum, he’s a reliable backup. Last season, ne gave Wolf the occasional night off. Down the stretch after 4 Nations, the Flames were in good hands with either Wolf or Vladar (seven starts) in net.
Now, the Flames don’t have a viable alternative. It’s why they exclusivey turn to their elite goaltender and overwork him in the process.
It’s no coincidence that the Flames have been linked to multiple rumors in the goaltending market. Trading for a backup will go a long way for a team looking to enter the playoff conversation. Moreover, Wolf is a young goaltender and is still improving. It’s these years in particular that he needs a backup, and the Flames must give him one. He has all the makings of an elite top-of-the-league goaltender but he’s not that yet, certainly not the workhorse who can start every game and remain at a high level.
Colten Ellis claimed by the Sabres (& other AHL notes)
Arturs Silovs was traded this summer because the Vancouver Canucks were confident he wouldn’t make it through waivers. So, they traded him to avoid losing him for nothing. This led many hockey fans to believe there was another goaltender who would get claimed off of waivers before the season began, presumably, Michael DiPietro or Clay Stevenson.
Last week, the Buffalo Sabres claimed St. Louis Blues prospect goaltender Colten Ellis. The quick thoughts on the claim are 1) The Blues were overconfident, he’s clear waivers, 2) The Sabres broke an unwritten rule of some sort (like throwing an offer sheet at a player, which you can do but nobody does for some reason), 3) This really hurts the Blues.
The Blues needed Ellis to be the young successor in the net with Jordan Binnington and Joel Hofer starting to age. And that’s what he was developing into. Last season, Ellis had a .922 SV% and a 2.63 GAA on 1259 shots while almost leading the Springfield Thunderbirds to a Calder Cup Playoffs upset over the Providence Bruins. In short, for those who don’t follow the American Hockey League (AHL), he’s a young goaltender on the rise and was the next in line to start for the Blues.
This becomes a sneaky move for the Sabres. Yes, they seem to have four (or 20) goaltenders on their roster but Ellis could be the one who breaks through and gives them the stability they’ve been searching for for the past 14 years. This move also affects the Thunderbirds, who might be the worst team in their division without a competent goaltender.
Other AHL Notes
Speaking of Silovs, it seemed like the Abbotsford Canucks would struggle in the net without him. In their first game of the season, Nikita Tolopilo saved 36 of the 37 shots he faced to lead the way in a 2-1 overtime win. The next night, Jiri Patera saved 27 of 29 shots in a 4-2 win. It might say a lot about the goaltending coach in Abbotsford (it’s Justin Pogge for those wondering).
The Hershey Bears are the standard in the AHL, or they have been in recent seasons. They won the Calder Cup in 2023 and 2024, making them a team to beat even if they didn’t win it all last season. They lost their first two games of the season against the Syracuse Crunch. It’s a surprise but they went through a lot of turnover. Expect them to be near the top of the standings by the end of the season, especially with Derek King coaching them.
The Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins won their first two games and did so with their defense leading the way, allowing only two goals in the two games. After relying on their offense to win games last season, they look like a complete team this time around.
Quick Hits: Blackhawks, Canadiens, Sabres & More
- The Chicago Blackhawks are 0-2-1, yet it doesn’t feel that way. They’ve lost every game by one goal and have looked like a better team this season. Connor Bedard is starting to find his footing in the league as he enters year three, and Frank Nazar has also looked like a steady contributor.
- The Montreal Canadiens look like a fun team to watch. They have a forward unit that can come at teams in waves, especially if Zachary Bolduc continues to find the back of the net in a third-line role (although he’ll move up to the second line if he keeps this up).
- Speaking of fun, the New Jersey Devils, Ottawa Senators, and Tampa Bay Lightning might not be the best teams in the league but early on, they’ve looked like the teams that can score but not defend, making them fun teams to keep an eye on.
- On the opposite end of things are the Buffalo Sabres. Things look bleak, and they’ve gone from bad to worse as the 0-2 Sabres will be without Josh Norris for a significant amount of time.
