As a surprise to some, but not I, the Leafs lost to the Panthers. The Leafs exceeded my expectations. I thought the Panthers would end them in 6 but the Leafs pushed them to 7.

Let’s do this player by player, head to head.

RW1- Reinhart 2G 3A 5P – Marner 1G 4A 5P – Even
C1 – Barkov 2G 3A 5P – Matthews 1G 3A 4P – Barkov
LW1 – Verhaeghe 2G 3A 5P – Knies 2G 2A 4P – Verhaeghe

The top lines were pretty evenly matched with the Panthers getting the slight edge. The three games the Leafs won, Marner, Matthews and Knies got the GWG. That should tell anybody with even a room temperature IQ that the problem IS NOT the top line on this team. They went shot for shot with not one but TWO Selke FINALISTS and came out pretty much even.

RW2 – Tkachuk 0G 4A 4P – Nylander 3G 3A 6P – Nylander
C2 – Bennett 3G 1A 4P – Tavares 2G 0A 2P – Bennett
LW2 – Rodrigues 0G 3A 3P – Pacioretty 2G 4A 6P – Pacioretty

On the score sheet, this line was a mixed bag either way. This line for the Leafs started strong and ended with a whimper. For all the shit Marner and Matthews gets for not showing up in the big games, Nylander and Tavares did next to nothing in Games 5, 6 and 7. Pacioretty was the big surprise offensively but this line was routinely stuck in their own zone and Tavares was on the ice for more goals against than any other Leafs forward. He has always been and will continue to be a defensive liability as he ages. The fact that the Panthers could manage to win this series with Tkachuk getting 0 goals is telling. The reason? Depth scoring as we are about to see with the 3rd and 4th lines.

RW3 – Marchand 3G 5A 8P – Holmberg 0G 0A 0P – Marchand
C3 – Lundell 2G 3A 5P – Domi 2G 3A 5P – Even
LW3 – Luostarinen 2G 5A 7P – McMann 0G 2A 2P – Luostarinen

This line was the biggest reason why the Panthers won the series. Plain and simple. They absolutely destroyed the Leafs at both ends of the ice. Leafs fans can erroneously blame their “core 4” for all their problems but the reality is they got beat on the 3rd line. Marchand was the perfect deadline acquisition for the Panthers, unlike Laughton for the Leafs. Absolutely relentless on the forecheck, defensively sound and offensively opportunistic. This line wasn’t really on the PP but they would kill you 5v5. The Leafs did not have an answer for this line and if they wish to win in the future, this is the type of 3rd line they need to be able to create. Which is funny because it’s often the type of line that barely costs you cap space to create if you just know how to draft and develop players.

Lundell and Luostarinen are clear examples of what the Panthers do right that the Leafs do wrong. Lundell, a 1st round pick, is 23 years old and produces 15ish goals with 30-40 points. Luostarinen, picked up as a spare part in a trade with Carolina for Trocheck, another 10-15 goal, 30-40 point player. Neither one of them are flashy or all-stars. But determined competitors. Think of having two of Leo Komarov’s bigger, better brothers. Then add to the mix a veteran like Marchand and you have a 3rd line from hell. Domi, for all his flaws, is still a valuable playoff performer for the Leafs. He gets it. It’s in his blood. He hates to lose. But he needs better guys to play with. McMann was damn near useless other than one assist. And Holmberg, well, he’s pretty much useless too, especially offensively.

RW4 – Gadjovich 2G 1A 3P – Jarnkrok 0G 0A 0P – Gadjovich
C4 – Sturm 0G 0A 0P – Laughton 0G 0A 0P – Even
LW4 – Greer 1G 1A 2P – Lorentz 0G 2A 2P – Greer

This Leafs 4th line did hustle, I will give them that. But they couldn’t finish to save their life. Two breakaways early in Game 7 with nothing to show for it. The Panthers, on the other hand, did get some goals from their 4th line. In a game of inches, it makes all the difference. Absolutely ZERO goals from this line. Doesn’t seem like it should matter but unfortunately it does. Did anybody know who Gadjovich was before the series? Well, he scored 2 goals by himself. 6’3, 211 from Whitby, scored 46 goals in the OHL. And the Leafs don’t have him. Why? Because they’d rather have midget pylons like Jarnkrok. Jarnkrok, for all his efforts, got nothing. And he’s been considered a reliable, dependable bottom-six player. He has to go. Kampf and Robertson, also have to go. They do not move the needle in the playoffs. At all.

LD1 – Forsling 0G 1A 1P – McCabe 0G 3A – 3P – Forsling
RD1 – Jones 2G 2A – 4P – Tanev 1G 1A – 2P – Jones

Jones dominated this series. Multiple Leafs fans stupidly thought Jones absolutely sucked. Guess what? He’s a force. He played a ridiculous amount of time and took over games, including important moments like Game 7. While the Leafs have been looking for a top pair RHD for years, what were they doing? They were busy getting Carlo. Why? Because the Leafs love getting lesser players and expecting too much from them. The moment Jones demanded a trade away from Chicago, the Leafs should have been first in line. Instead? They’re golfing early because their division rival was first to improve their team. Tanev, at his age and his contract, is going to decline. And offensively, simply does not contribute enough. The Leafs should have signed him to be a 2nd pair RHD and instead they’re expecting him to do too much as they always have from their aging defenders.

LD2 – Mikkola 1G 0A 1P – Rielly 2G 2A 4P – Mikkola just for not being a defensive liability
RD2 – Ekblad 1G 4A 5P – Carlo 0G 0A 0P – Ekblad

Rielly is an absolute disaster. He must be traded. He scored more than he did in the regular season but it still wasn’t enough to make up for the absolute train wreck he is defensively. Once able to skate himself out of trouble, he just makes terrible decisions for a player with 10+ years of NHL experience. He is broke and can’t be fixed. Carlo, is a big pylon too. There’s a reason why Boston dumped him on the Leafs. Playing with Rielly is difficult, no doubt, but it’s always extra annoying when the biggest guy on the ice is playing like he’s Ian White rather than Zdeno Chara. If Carlo had somebody better to play with, he wouldn’t be as bad but there’s no chance he’s going to be able to keep Rielly afloat going forward. And he’s offensively inept and useless so whatever mistakes he makes defensively will never be equalized at the other end.

LD3 – Schmidt 0G 4A 4P – OEL 0G 2A 2P – Schmidt
RD3 – Kulikov 1G 1A 2P – Benoit 0G 0A 0P – Kulikov

OEL was underutilized this season and this series. He is aging, for sure, but he should have been put on the PP because he can shoot and pass the puck. He can QB a PP. The guy made an entire career of being a high power offensive D. And the Leafs leave him to rot offensively when that was his calling card. Marc Savard must be fired immediately and replaced with somebody who can put OEL’s talents to good use. OEL could have been a difference maker (he was the Panthers top offensive option last year) and yet they simply refused to use him even when the PP had gone static and dry.

EXD – Balinskis vs. Myers

Balinskis played one game and scored one goal. Even their blueline depth scores more. Unbelievable.

Bob vs. Stolarz + Woll – Bob

Bob had a rough start to the series and just turned it around as the series went on. He gave up some suspect goals but ended the series with 3 out of 4 games with a .950 SV%. He is currently a steady hand for the Panthers but at his age, this will become the Panthers weakness in the next year or two as he ages out. The Leafs, with Woll, have a playoff performer. If they can keep him healthy, the Leafs will win these future battles in net. Woll gave the Leafs a chance to win most games, even when they gave him nothing in terms of support in Game 5 and Game 7. He stood tall in Game 4 and Game 6. When the pressure is on, Woll is on. They just need to support him better like they did in Game 6. It will simply be a matter of time.

TOR PP vs. FLO PK – FLO
TOR PK vs. FLO PP – FLO

Leafs PP sucked balls. Fire Savard. Their PK need work, again, their bottom-six forwards are not good enough at either end of the rink to help the special teams enough. The Leafs are forced to throw their star players out there in so many situations they end up being over worked by the end of the series.

Leafs were absolutely dominated most games at 5v5. Why? Because the Panthers forecheck, much like the Ottawa forecheck, dictates how and where the game is played. Until the Leafs inject the line-up with more guys that can play that style, they will always struggle to come out on top in these tight series, especially when their bottom-six forwards contribute basically 0 goals for and many goals against.

——————————————————————————————————————————————————————————–

Luckily, despite all these flaws and mistakes, this Leafs team is the best team we’ve seen in this era.

They won the division. They beat Ottawa (as they should) and got out of the 1st round. They took the defending Champions (two time Finalists) to Game 7. Did they meet the lofty (and exaggerated) expectations of winning a Cup? No. Not yet. But the correct adjustments can make a difference.

1. Fire Shanahan. His time is up. This team needs upper management that understands what it takes to finish building a team. Shanahan has made many mistakes getting us to this point, they can not allow him to continue to throw away this opportunity. With this type of foundation, we should have been looking at multiple Cups. As it stands, they’ll be fortunate if they can squeeze out one.

2. Trade Rielly. If there is to be somebody from the “core” that DESERVES to go, it’s Morgan Rielly. He’s been here the longest and his time is up. The Leafs will never be able to win with a guy like Rielly. He does not provide the Leafs with enough offensive output to compensate for his absolutely horrid defensive ability and his cap hit is unmanageable. It won’t be easy to move him but Vancouver could be a place he doesn’t mind landing. Worse players with worse contracts have been traded before. He can and should be moved.

3. Bye Tavares. He’s older, he’s slower and he’s defensively terrible. Absolutely no team or coach or player looks at Tavares anymore and is worried about that match-up. They know he can’t skate, they know he can’t defend and they know he won’t kill them offensively anymore either. Again, people want to bitch about Mitch in Game 5, 6 and 7? Where was Tavares? He was busy watching the other team score goals while he scored none himself. He was overpaid and underdelivered once before, never make the same mistake twice.

4. Re-sign Marner. He led the team in points, 5 straight 100 point per 82 game seasons and was 2nd in playoff scoring (more than Matthews). Your team will not improve if you let these types of players walk as UFAs. There is no player better (or cheaper) available to replace Marner. The Leafs do not have prospects, they do not have draft picks. They can not afford to lose this much talent. The cap is going up, they can afford to keep Marner and Knies if they trim the fat.

5. Re-sign Knies to a bridge deal. He’s a big body, he scored some goals but he’s not a star yet. Don’t pay him like one. Give him a bridge deal and let him earn it. Don’t pay for the UFA years and worry about his “big” contract when he earns it in the future. The Leafs made the mistake of giving every young player a giant deal way too early. Never make the same mistake twice. If he gets an offer sheet, deal with it accordingly but keep that cap hit low in the short term.

6. Dump Jarnkrok, Kampf, Robertson, Holmberg and McMann. You won’t win in the playoffs with depth players that bring nothing to the table. These guys are mostly overpaid and simply don’t move the needle when it matters. Replace them immediately with guys who bring more size, more aggression and can actually bang in some greasy playoff goals. The Leafs can no longer afford to have their bottom-six provide no offense and expect to win games.

7. Keep finding guys like Pacioretty. Every year, there are former “star” players who are on their back-nine who are more willing to play for a bargain. We see guys like Perry who can still contribute and cost next to nothing. The Leafs need to continue to recruit these guys. Jamie Benn? He might be the next one to fit that mold.

8. Bring in some quality coaches to help fix this team on special teams. Tortz should be at the top of the list. Keep adding guys to the staff who have accomplished something as coaches unlike that fat piece of shit Marc Savard.

——————————————————————————————————————————————————————————

My initial idea is this…

Morgan Rielly $7.5 M

to VAN for Teddy Blueger $1.8 M + Tyler Myers $3.0 M + sign Brian Dumoulin $2 M

OR ALTERNATIVELY

to SEA for Jamie Oleksiak $4.6 + sign Sean Kuraly $1.5 M + sign Brent Burns $2 M

Calle Jarnkrok $2.1 M + David Kampf $2.4 M to CBJ for Boone Jenner $3.8 M

McMann $1.4M for Pospisil $1 M

Jack McBain. Mathieu Olivier. Eeli Tolvanen. Kiefer Sherwood. Garnet Hathaway.

Mitchell Marner
$13,160,000 × 8 years

Matthew Knies
$6,500,000 × 3 years

Reilly Smith
$5,000,000 × 3 years

Brian Dumoulin OR Brent Burns
$2,000,000 × 2 years

Sean Kuraly OR Blueger @ $1,800,000 in the Rielly trade.
$1,500,000 x 2 years

Brandon Tanev
$900,000 × 2 years

Steven Lorentz
$900,000 × 2 years

Max Pacioretty
$900,000 × 1 years

Knies | Matthews | Marner
Smith | Jenner | Nylander
Domi | Laughton | Tanev
Pacioretty | Blueger OR Kuraly | Pospisil
Lorentz

OEL | Tanev
McCabe | Carlo
Dumoulin | Myers OR Oleksiak | Burns

Woll | Stolarz

That is my first glance at the UFA / trade possibilities.

This team is larger, tougher, meaner in the bottom-six and on the blueline. Adding some motivated veterans. Some, with Cup experience, others, with hunger for a last chance.