There’s always a glass-half-empty or glass-half-full question in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Specifically, did one team (the Maple Leafs) collapse, or did the other rise to the occasion and take over the series? It depends on who (or which fanbase) you ask, and often, two things can be true simultaneously.
Toronto didn’t fall apart in the Second Round, a series where they lost four of the last five games. They ran into a machine that is the Florida Panthers. Their series wasn’t proof of that, at least at first, but Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Final was. The Panthers blew the doors off the Carolina Hurricanes in a 5-2 victory, proving the Cup still runs through them.
They took the defending champions to seven games. With this in mind, the Maple Leafs should feel good heading into the offseason. They came only nine wins short of a title, and now, it’s about building on that. This season provided a blueprint for how they’ll win the Stanley Cup, so they know where to go next.
Maple Leafs Must Win From The Net Out
In the Core Four era, the question always was how the Maple Leafs could build a winning team when their salary cap was devoted to four forwards. Multiple teams win with four players taking up most of the cap space (they are the stars to build around), but most teams invest in multiple positions while doing so. The Maple Leafs paid Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, William Nylander, and John Tavares while cutting corners on their defense and in the net.
The results on the ice showed. The offense was always great, arguably top five in the league every season, and the defense lagged behind. The Maple Leafs would always piece together their defense and goaltending, which always let them down in the playoffs.
The past offseason finally saw them pivot. The Maple Leafs acquired Chris Tanev, who became the anchor of the defense. They also signed Oliver Ekman-Larsson to round out the unit. Anthony Stolarz was brought in as the starting goaltender and was great during the regular season. There’s a good argument that if he doesn’t get injured in Game 1 against the Panthers that the Maple Leafs win the series.
For now, the Maple Leafs have a goaltending tandem with Stolarz and backup Joseph Woll that can lead them throughout the season and the playoffs. That’s where the Maple Leafs will build a Cup-caliber team. The offense will be fine with Matthews and Nylander leading the way. However, the team can win with defense leading the way, and it’s what must happen in the playoffs.
Berube & The Physical Game
The Maple Leafs hired Craig Berube last summer, and the impact wasn’t felt overnight. Over time, the fans started to see his value and what he brings to an organization, specifically, one searching for a title. He was hired with the playoffs in mind, and they played with that mentality all season. They played the 82-grind like it was a marathon and not a sprint, while also playing the style of hockey needed to win in the playoffs.
This team not only played two-way hockey, but they also forechecked and played a physical game. The Maple Leafs won when games slowed down, and for the first time in almost a decade, they weren’t reliant on Matthews, who was injured or limited for most of the season. Berube had the team buying into his system, and even as they stumbled against the Ottawa Senators in the First Round, losing two games in a row, they were unfazed thanks to the coach behind the bench.
The Maple Leafs will be a competitive team next season and play at another gear in the playoffs with Berube behind the bench. The team looks different compared to the ones that would fall in the First Round under Sheldon Keefe. The only question is if their star players will set the tone for how the rest of the team plays as well. Matthews and Nylander are great, two of the most skilled players in the game, yet they aren’t winning with physical play. It’s something that can ultimately come back to bite them in the playoffs.
Losing Marner Will Hurt & Ultimately Help
All the signs indicate that Marner is leaving in free agency this offseason, and it’s a shame he’s going out with a whimper. He was born and raised in the greater Toronto area and was drafted and developed by the Maple Leafs into a star, which, considering the hit-and-miss rate of prospects, is a success story.
Ideally, the Maple Leafs re-sign him, keeping a key part of their forward unit around. The problem is that Marner’s asking price will be too high, and other teams will outbid the Maple Leafs, a team that doesn’t have as much cap space as the Chicago Blackhawks or the Anaheim Ducks. Even a team-friendly deal for John Tavares is in doubt since the hometown forward might want to stay for cheap, but other teams will outbid the Maple Leafs.
Marner’s production will be tough to replace in the regular season. He’s coming off a season where he had 27 goals and 75 assists as the top-line winger who sets up scoring chances for the other skaters on the ice. The Maple Leafs won’t be the same offensively without him. At the same time, the Maple Leafs aren’t building a team with the regular season in mind. They are building for the playoffs, and Marner, for as exciting as he is in the regular season, is not great in the playoffs.
In 70 playoff games, Marner has only 13 goals and 50 assists. In the final four games of the series against the Panthers, he registered only one assist. His offense disappeared in the playoffs, and he doesn’t play the physical game needed to succeed in the big moments. The last series was an explanation point for his tenure with the Maple Leafs, as he was a non-factor and one of the reasons the team had no answers to bigger and faster games.
Marner will sign a big deal elsewhere, and it will sting for a Maple Leafs team that invested heavily in him only to lose him for nothing. At the same time, they’ll suddenly have some cap space to work with. It will help them add to the defense and bring in some forward depth as well. The Maple Leafs won’t head into next season with a core four for the first time since 2017. However, they will have a well-rounded roster.
The Maple Leafs Must Build a Team To Beat Florida
In the big picture, the Maple Leafs are a better team than the previous ones in the Matthews era, and they are closer to the Cup. They have to beat the Panthers, something the rest of the league is trying to figure out as well. The Maple Leafs will inevitably run into the Panthers in the playoffs, if not in the First Round, in the Second Round, and must have a roster that can defeat them.
They proved they can do it with two early wins in the series and a 2-0 Game 6 victory. The Maple Leafs just have to do it in a full seven-game series. They must match the Panthers blow for blow and get better as the series progresses. The regular season is played at one gear, and the teams that win it all get better as the playoffs go on. The Maple Leafs used up all their mileage on the first two games and were spent by Game 7. It’s something they will prepare for if they are back.
Building a team that can beat the Panthers is easier said than done. It’s something the entire league is trying to do yet the Panthers remain the team to beat. That said, the Maple Leafs are on the right path. It won’t seem that way right now but it’s true.
