Toronto Maple Leafs players held the exit interviews at locker cleanout on Tuesday, and while there were some subtle differences, they simply recycled the same tired excuses that have been uttered throughout the early departures from the Stanley Cup Playoffs during the Brendan Shanahan era. The one difference this time around is that, because of the contractual situations in the front office and in the locker room, the Leafs are going to be forced, kicking and screaming, into the changes they have needed to make for at least four years.
CEO Keith Pelley and the MLSE board will reportedly meet on Thursday to decide the fate of Team President Brendan Shanahan. There are reports that Pelley has the authority to make a decision on whether Shanahan will get a new contract or move on from him with the expiration of his deal. According to Chris Johnston of the Athletic, the New York Islanders have asked permission to speak with the Hall of Famer, which would provide him with a comfortable landing spot and allow the Leafs to purge themselves of the person most responsible for their current state. Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reports that Toronto has given permission for the Isles to speak to Shanahan.
Shanahan’s vision for the club’s roster is the main reason for the Leafs reaching a crossroads entering this summer. The plan involving building around the young core and the free agent signing of center John Tavares was obviously affected by the flat cap coming out of the 2020 pandemic, because that did not allow Toronto to retain players like Zach Hyman or add others in free agency, but there were exit ramps that Shanahan and GM Kyle Dubas could have taken, but chose not at the time.
Following the signing of Tavares in 2018, the Leafs immediately had a dilemma with William Nylander as a restricted free agent. GM Lou Lamoriello chose not to engage Nylander’s agent the previous summer when he became eligible for a new contract, and the Leafs under Dubas could not get the 22-year-old winger signed through the summer. The impasse lasted until December, but Dubas was considering trade offers for the RFA. The most intriguing was a deal with St. Louis involving Alex Pietrangelo, but Toronto surrendered to Nylander’s demands and signed him to a six-year deal for just under $7 million per season.
This led to a domino effect of deals that were not in the Leafs favor, including the deal for Auston Matthews in February 2019, and the contract extension for Mitch Marner, signed at the start of training camp in September 2019. Matthews was made the second-highest paid player in the NHL on his new deal, but Toronto only got him locked up for five years, instead of the eight years that Connor McDavid signed in Edmonton. Marner, as well, did not sign a max contract, and after a 94-point season in 2018-19, got just under $11 million AAV.
Had the Leafs held the line on Nylander and either traded him or signed him to an eight-year deal, they would have had a stronger negotiating position with their two young stars.
The greatest failure came in 2023, after losing to Columbus in the bubble in 2020, the inexcusable collapse against Montreal in 2021, and the seven-game loss to Tampa Bay in 2022. Dubas expended most of his draft capital in a bid to finally break through the first-round choke jobs, and added veteran Ryan O’Reilly and defenseman Jake McCabe. The Leafs finally beat the Lightning in six games for their first series win in 19 years, but the core group was summarily shut down by a more physical Florida Panthers squad (sound familiar).
After being eliminated so soundly, Dubas appeared fully prepared to finally do what needed to be done, which was to break up the core group and reshuffle the Leafs deck, but his inability to convince Shanahan or his being able to go around him to make the changes necessary led to his departure in May 2023.
Shortly after, Brad Treliving was hired as GM, but with only five weeks before Marner’s no-movement clause went into effect, the former Calgary GM was under the same limitations as Dubas to not trade Marner or Nylander, who they eventually signed the following January.
The greatest crime perpetrated by Shanahan is that a player of great value like Marner will simply be able to walk away for nothing on July 1, and that is only happening because of his stubbornness, intransigence or lack of vision to realize that the Leafs core group could not win, no matter how good of a supporting cast you surrounded them with. Just look what Colorado was able to get for Mikko Rantanen, who had a limited no-trade and not a no-move like Marner.
The miscalculation of not getting Rantanen locked up may come back to bite the Avalanche down the road, but they did get Martin Necas and Jack Drury for a top-flight rental. At best, the Leafs will get a draft pick or two for Marner’s rights or in a potential sign-and-trade, but that will not be Shanahan’s concern when he is moving into Lamoriello’s old office at UBS Arena.
