With just a month left until free agency opens, it appears the Washington Capitals may not know about their biggest name’s status until after the market opens on July 1.
On a Russian TV interview, Capitals team captain Alex Ovechkin said he would likely decide in July on returning to the NHL next season, which means the team may not know for sure while trying to shape their 2026-27 roster with plenty of cash but also plenty of holes to fill in what figures to be a very expensive proposition to improve clubs with the rising salary cap.
Of course, it’s not surprising Ovechkin is taking his time making a decision, as the choice to sell John Carlson and Nic Dowd at the trade deadline certainly seemed to displease the captain, who called it one of the toughest days of his career. Compounding that was the public insistence of Capitals management that they would add a Top 6 forward to the mix to help Washington make a Stanley Cup playoff run since last summer, and instead pulling the plug on a team that finished four points out of a playoff spot in what turned out to be a very wide-open playoff field.
Since wrapping up this past seems, reading between the lines it seems Ovechkin’s decision will be based on what the Capitals decide to do to improve, as while they do have ample cap space, it’s important to remember that other teams will also have money to throw around, meaning real improvement will be a lot more expensive in the past – and that includes potential trades, since teams can retain contracts they otherwise would have needed to shed.
Several teams balked at the asking prices for Top 6 forwards at the trade deadline, and the demands aren’t going down with teams keeping the ability to fit players under their cap, and the list of other teams looking for Top 6 forwards isn’t a short one.
How Can The Capitals Improve
You’d have to expect the starting price for the Capitals to get a Top 6 forward would be the team’s two 2026 NHL Draft first-round picks at 16th and 18th overall, one of the team’s prospects in Hershey, as well as an NHL regular roster player, and that may even be a low-end offer.
Even the offer sheet route that has been largely unused due to the high cost of picks won’t be a realistic option for many, as a top-flight forward would command four first-rounders.
Also important to note this year is the beginning of the new Collective Bargaining Agreement, which reduces the maximum length of a contract signed with your own club from eight to seven years and players not under your control to six, so those Unrestricted Free Agency prices will be a major jump in dollars with one less year to play with in terms of spreading out the cap hits.
And, should the Capitals not attract Ovechkin back, that creates a bit more of an issue, as they would need to attain two Top 6 forwards, as while the forward didn’t quite pass the eye test, he still is the second-highest goal-scoring UFA available, and the team’s top goals and points getter, and likely would cost significantly more to replace him on the roster than simply retaining him.
Certainly the lack of activity on the Top 6 front since last summer for Washington has begun to back General Manager Chris Patrick into a corner, as while it seems the team would like to eventually make a clean break from the old core as they did with the trades of Carlson and Dowd in March, clearly Ovechkin is in a different category since he is still the most productive player on the roster, and by far the most marketable player on the roster and also one who has helped the franchise become part of the NHL’s top tier in worth with the ticket and merchandise sales he produces.
While Carlson was popular with the fan base, Ovechkin is in his own stratosphere in terms of marketability, and even the perception that the team pushed their star out the door or failed to deliver on a promise to upgrade would quickly undo a lot of the growth the franchise has had over the past two decades.
What Could Happen With The Great 8
A final farewell season certainly would be lucrative for the team and the league, while the decision to not return with what presumably would be an underwhelming effort to improve would create an underwhelming end for the most popular player in franchise history.
While it appears the Capitals won’t know for sure if Ovechkin will be skating in the NHL or KHL next season when the market opens up, it’s a safe bet they will have to plan on major upgrades either way, because no significant movement to the roster likely means he wouldn’t return to Washington. More likely than not, Ovechkin decides to return for at least one more season, but the Capitals also have to make an effort to return the team to contender status, something they failed to do in March.
The silver lining for Washington is if Ovechkin likes to wait, he likely will take less money to return to fit under the cap, as his countryman Evgeni Malkin did in Pittsburgh. A potential return deal would likely deliver a similar incentive-laden contract that the Capitals at the very least could push the hit into the following season.
So while the fans await Ovechkin’s decision, it’s becoming clear the Capitals captain is waiting to see just what Patrick delivers before his own decision to return to the NHL or not, and so until Washington makes a move, the waiting game appears to be set to continue.
