Big Week Ahead For Capitals, Patrick

With the Stanley Cup out of its case in North Carolina and the Free Agent Frenzy looming next week, this is probably the biggest week of Chris Patrick’s nearly two-year run as the Washington Capitals‘ general manager.

After promising an upgrade to the team’s Top 6 forwards last summer, and then not being able to complete a deal for one, then seeing the team that was the top seed in the Eastern Conference in 2024-25 fall out of the playoff picture, and now the team’s captain awaiting the franchise’s moves to decide on coming back for another season, the runway for Chris Patrick is running out rapidly.

Washington enters this year’s NHL Draft holding a pair of first-round picks, their own at the 16th pick and the Anaheim Ducks’ 18th overall, which potentially the Capitals can use to either move up a couple spots in the order, or see if they can lure a trade partner to finally improve in the team’s forward corps should they opt not to use the picks for what likely would be help two or three years down the road.

With the trade market heating up this weekend, it seems that a deal for a Top 6 forward would need to come sooner than later, and using the team’s two first-round selections would allow Patrick to make a move without overly impacting the team’s current core, as one after the draft would likely involve more current roster players than future picks.

Despite Washington’s ample cap room, over $34 million in space according to CapWages, the two highest-goal scorers on the unrestricted free agent market have already been part of the Capitals organization, with Anthony Mantha and Alexander Ovechkin being the top two, with the former having a very erratic run with the Capitals before being traded at the 2024 trade deadline – although he did perform well under a first-year coach Spencer Carbery.

But Washington isn’t alone in having ample money to spend this summer, and that figures to drive up the price for the most useful unrestricted free agents, such as the Buffalo Sabres’ Alex Tuch, who figures to make a sizeable raise once the market opens July 1. So the trade market would seem to be the route that’s preferable to go for teams looking to improve their Top 6, although the price for making trades is going up as well, as teams can opt to hang on to pricier contracts without the need to deal them.

Of course, a combination of teams looking for Top 6 forwards combined with the prices rising in trade talks for them – evidenced by the three first-rounders netted for Matthew Tkachuk over the weekend – will test NHL general managers to how much they are willing to spend to fill their needs, as the cost of waiting has driven the market value up for these forwards. Those GMs who were patient at last year’s deadline likely will see that with the rising cap, so too the prices for top-end talent has gone up.

Certainly, Capitals fans got used to the more high-risk, high-reward approach of both previous GMs George McPhee and Brian MacLellan, who would roll the dice to improve the roster, sometimes to successful results (such as T.J. Oshie), or not so good results (such as Martin Erat) Patrick wasn’t alone last season being discouraged by the high prices for trade partners, but waiting to actually improve proved to be an ineffective strategy, as they punted on a wide-open Eastern Conference playoff bracket and still narrowly missed the postseason as the prices for talent seems to be rising further this offseason.

Washington does have a couple of in-house options with the Hershey Bears, such as Ilya Protas and Andrew Cristall, but the team didn’t give those two a shot to show their mettle until it was almost too late, and in Cristall’s case, he remained in the AHL all season rather than even getting a quick callup as the younger Protas did.

It is possible the team could opt to actually try and fill the hole up front with those two, but they would have to commit to actually using them regularly, as well as selling the team’s captain and remaining roster, that is the right course of action after openly discussing improving the roster for a year and not taking a swing for the fence.

What Will #8 Do?

Should Washington take the safe route and just look to promote from within, Ovechkin may simply opt to skate in the KHL next season, which has ramifications for both the on-ice product as well as the off-ice ticket sales and marketing the team’s captain provides, which would impact the Capitals’ bottom line in a big way. And, should Ovechkin not return, then the team needs to fill two Top 6 spots, which makes it an even more expensive proposition, which almost certainly would require significant assets and cap space over simply retaining their captain.

Despite Ovechkin not looking nearly as speedy as he did early in his career, he still led the Capitals in goals and points last season, and should they not make the moves to encourage him to come back for another season in the NHL, they would have to replace that production in addition to upgrading the roster, and that probably would cost significantly more than simply a one-year deal at presumably somewhat of a hometown discount for Ovechkin. That puts more of a premium on keeping their captain for at least one more season, as that ample cap space would get eaten up quickly, having to acquire two Top 6 forwards in a seller’s market for them.

And, a farewell tour certainly would prove lucrative for the Capitals, whose large increase in franchise value from 18th overall in the NHL at $135 million before Ovechkin arrived in 2003 to $2.55 billion and 9th overall last season in the league per Forbes, as the team has a big financial stake in if he comes back or not. While other factors, such as owner Ted Leonsis controlling now-Capital One Arena has a large impact on the team’s value, the jump up the league ladder also has a big improvement thanks to the star power Ovechkin has provided.

Addressing The D

Beyond needing a Top 6 addition up front, Washington will also need to upgrade the defense, as with the deadline deal to send John Carlson west and the injury to Rasmus Sandin, the team will need to bolster a defensive corps that was thinning out at the end of the season.

While Washington was largely good after the trade deadline as they tried to chase the playoff cut line, the defense at times collapsed in some ugly losses at the New Jersey Devils and New York Rangers, and without the prospects the team already has up front, it will be more urgent to fix, although this is more of an issue for depth rather than top-end talent.

With Carlson seeking a multi-year, eight-digit contract this summer, and the team’s past willingness to sign its veteran core, such as deals with Oshie and Nicklas Backstrom, it seems the team knew this past March they would not be able to sign the veteran to a favorable deal, and opted to trade him rather than even let him finish his career in Washington. With the trade signaling the team has decided to move past a player who turns 37 this January, a reunion seems very out of the question, barring an unexpected twist, and with the lack of good unrestricted free agents, that seems more and more unlikely.

As the prospects gather in Buffalo this weekend and teams operate from their home bases again for selections, Washington likely would try to offer a package of the two first-rounders, one of the top forward prospects, and a veteran to see if they can get the job done, perhaps Charlie Lindgren if the team is committed to using Clay Stevenson as the backup next season. Clearly, the likelihood that Stevenson would not survive waivers again will force Patrick’s hand to see if he can use one of the team’s depth goaltenders as trade bait.

While Patrick’s first season as general manager was a successful one, the lackluster encore has the team at a crossroads, as the team’s stated plans to improve unexpectedly turned into a sell-off in March. The near future has created a ton of cap space to get deals done, but the inherent danger is that with the inflated value of contracts, you grossly overpay for players, and that limits your ability to make moves down the road should you opt to add bad contracts.

It’s still early in Patrick’s reign as GM as he reaches the two-year mark in July, but with needing to produce results this time around, not only to improve the club but to convince their captain to make at least one more run at the Stanley Cup. And the decision he makes in the next two weeks likely impacts the Capitals’ future for the next few seasons, and certainly what direction their captain elects to take.