Adjusting To The NHL’s New Normal

NHL clubs and their fans are going to need to adjust in the post-Leo Carlsson-offer sheet world, as the prices for players will go up. This is now a league where a talented 21-year-old center who put up 67 points is the highest-paid player at $18 million a season, and wunderkind Connor Bedard, with a flailing Chicago Blackhawks club that is nowhere close to making the playoffs, just signed a five-year, $75 million deal. 

There is chatter that Macklin Celebrini’s new deal will not go to the max, and that he will give the San Jose Sharks a “discount”. That discount is still likely to yield him somewhere in between Carlsson and Bedard. Where fans need to adjust their focus is at the amount that marginal or role players received on or just after July 1. With the cap going north of $100 million and likely heading to $120 million within two years, fourth liners like Peyton Krebs ($4.5 million) and Colton Sissons ($4.25 million) will become more commonplace. 

You will also see players in arbitration ask for the moon, just like Columbus goalie Jet Greaves did on Tuesday. After his first season as the Blue Jackets starter (26-19-9, 2.60 GAA, .908 save %), the 25-year-old opted for arbitration. Columbus offered a lowball $2.8 million, and Greaves’ ask was $7.5 million. As with most of these situations, the two sides will meet somewhere in the middle on a short-term deal. 

Two things will be very interesting over the next year or two. Players on existing contracts will increase in value because of cost certainty. An example of this is William Eklund going to Ottawa for the 9th overall pick. A high price to pay, but part of the cost was that the 23-year-old is locked up for another three seasons at $5.6 million AAV. 

The other thing is what top players will be getting on their next deal. Connor McDavid, when (not if) he hits the open market in two years, could ask for the 20% max amount on a free agent deal, but if his motivation is to win a Stanley Cup with his new club, he won’t be able to do that. Interesting times…..and fans will have to adjust their critique of salaries for the new normal of the NHL.