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While the NHL calendar has hit the official slow period as the calendar shifts from July to August, the league will be soon growing beyond its current 32-team format, with several new teams – and some familiar cities – getting into the league.
Earlier this summer, the NHL said it was looking to put a team in Texas, either in Houston or Austin, as it granted the Friedkin family the right to look at putting together an arena deal in either of the two markets. The family, which owns a pair of European soccer clubs, would be seeing if they can cut a deal for a building in either of the cities for what would be the NHL’s 33rd team.
From a TV market perspective, Houston would make the most sense, as while the other big three in American sports – the NFL, MLB and NBA – all have teams in the top 10 of the Designated Market Areas of the United States, the NHL is missing two of them – Houston and Atlanta.
NHL, Pro Sports and Market Size
The largest market without an NFL team is currently Orlando, which is 15th, but also next door to the Tampa Bay market and not far away from the Jacksonville market as well, as the franchise will temporarily call that city home for the 2027 season. Baseball too, Orlando is the largest market without a MLB team, but is also within 110 miles of the Rays’ home in St. Petersburg. Tampa, 11th overall, is the largest market without an NBA team, but in a reversal of the other two, Orlando is home of the Magic within a two-hour drive of the market.
Hockey is missing the 6th and 7th largest TV markets in the U.S. with Houston and Atlanta, and in a map where just 25 of the league’s 32 teams are in the U.S. – with 5 of those sharing 2 markets in New York and Los Angeles – that desire to change that fact is evident.
With the NHL’s U.S. TV deals expiring after the 2027-28 season, missing those top markets is not an insignificant fact, especially considering the NFL’s own broadcast deals could be subject to change and change the amount of dollars the league can get from broadcast partners. Certainly the ESPN deal has helped the league’s ratings with its high visibility placement of the product, while Turner has brought some innovation into their broadcasts and what they lack in reach they make up for in innovation during their broadcasts.
Certainly this past June’s Stanley Cup ratings were a plus for the league, but also was a by-product of the entire series being available on broadcast television in the U.S., something the league doesn’t always have. TNT’s ratings are a fraction of the ABC numbers, more because the cable channel is less accessible than ESPN’s broadcast partner.
So while the reported $2 billion price tag for a new team will yield a nifty $62.5 million per existing club and provide a significant bump from the $650 million paid in 2021 to bring the Seattle Kraken into existence, the long-term goal of the league is to fill some of the gaps in television coverage by perhaps adding up to four new markets in the coming years.
Arena location and overhead
Certainly, the Texas group will be given the chance to strike a deal for a new building, likely in Houston but with the up-and-coming market of Austin providing some insurance an arena gets built. While Houston already has the Toyota Center, home of the NBA’s Rockets, they are owned by Tillman Fertitta, who had discussions previously with the NHL about bringing an expansion team to Houston, and while perhaps the building would be used on a temporary basis as Ferittia reportedly would be willing to house the team at least for a season or two, it’s more likely the team would come on-line whenever the new arena is complete.
One site in Houston that has arisen as a possibility for the new arena project is the former home of the AstroWorld theme park, near the current home of the NFL’s Texans, NRG Stadium, according to the local Realty News Report. The land, which has already been slated for redevelopment, could come into play as the Houston Livestock Show and Rodeo announced this week a $300 million redevelopment of part of the AstroWorld property, and leaving the door open for a potential building either on another part of land, or at the NRG Arena across Interstate 610 in the shadow of the Astrodome, and in the NRG Stadium complex.
Austin certainly is a fast-growing market that can provide an alternative avenue should the Houston arena project not work out, but seemingly it’s more of a failsafe to get a team to pair with the Dallas Stars within a few seasons, and preferably by the 2028-29 season – which happens to be when the NHL’s new U.S. TV deal would kick in. The market does have an AHL-sized arena, H-E-B Center in suburban Cedar Park a team could temporarily use if needed, but seats just 6,800 for hockey and likely would be a difficult sell even for a season or two.
Beyond Texas, the NHL’s next team or two seems to be old familiar markets, with Atlanta and Phoenix the next two on deck.
Certainly Turner, based in Atlanta, is a factor in the push for a team to be placed in the northern suburbs of the city, and while the Atlanta Flames and Thrashers struggled to draw at the Omni and the replacement Philips Arena, the teams also won a grand total of two playoff games between 1970 and 2011. There are two current primary groups that are targeting an NHL team, the Gathering at South Forsyth and Alpharetta Sports & Entertainment, both which would build arenas in Alpharetta, roughly 25 miles north of Philips Arena downtown.
Paired with Houston, the NHL would then have its Top 10 U.S. markets set, and then, like the NFL and MLB, have all 14 of the top DMAs covered with franchises. The hope is a change of venue would draw more fans to NHL games than downtown Atlanta, as the city’s hockey culture resides mostly north of the Perimeter with the ECHL’s Atlanta Gladiators having played in Duluth since 1995. The Gladiators’ Gas South Arena could also provide a temporary venue for an NHL team, with 11,355 for hockey, although with some rather strange sightlines for the game.
The Case for a Phoenix Return
Beyond those two, the NHL seemingly is interested in returning to Phoenix, but of course as the Arizona Coyotes found out, the getting an arena done will be the biggest challenge, particularly after the former ownership group burned bridges with local communities before the franchise was sold and moved to Salt Lake City. Another Arizona team would likely be up to the NBA’s Phoenix Suns and their owner Mat Ishbia, who have the leverage to get a new building constructed but would likely have to be willing to pay the $2 billion expansion fee himself to get a team that can have a sufficient home arena.
Other options would possibly be New Orleans, who has shown interest in a team but would be the second-smallest U.S. market just ahead of Buffalo. Quebec City, which has a building but likewise is a small market and a tougher sell for expansion, Cincinnati which has a lengthy hockey history but also is just the 37th overall DMA, as well as Indianapolis which is 25th overall and hockey history as well.
Another emerging option may be Hamilton, Ontario, who have just completed reconstuction of the former Copps Coliseum and will host the AHL’s Hammers next season in a 18,000-seat venue renamed TD Coliseum, although any potential expansion would likely include a sizeable payout to the Toronto Maple Leafs and Buffalo Sabres to enter their markets, which could be a deal-breaker. Certainly the city was linked to potential relocation in the past with the Nashville Predators, but although the market probably would be a slam dunk without the two NHL teams playing up and down the QEW, it’s pretty clear the two are very protective of their territories and both would likely demand a ransom for allowing it.
While it seems around the time of the NHL’s new TV deal there will be a Texas-based team added to bring the league to 33, Atlanta may not be far off in bringing the league to 34. Should the league expand beyond that, the candidates get much murkier, but it seems that a desire to try and boost the league’s national broadcast revenue – not to mention a healthy expansion fee for existing clubs – will be a driver on where the league goes next.
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