Buy or Sell Forecast: Borderline Playoff Teams

The latest episode of Ice Time brought one thing to realization. There are a lot of borderline playoff teams. Yes, there are a handful of Stanley Cup-caliber teams like the Florida Panthers, Edmonton Oilers, and Dallas Stars, plus there are a handful of teams prepared to tank for Gavin McKenna. Then there’s the rest of the league, which includes 15 or so borderline playoff teams.

Which ones make the playoffs and which don’t? To kick things up a notch, which teams are good bets to make it, and which ones are worthwhile to bet on to miss the playoffs? It’s why there are numbers next to each team with the first being their odds to get in and the second being their odds to miss (these numbers are subject to change since it’s still the offseason, and a big trade can happen any day). 

Buy: Columbus Blue Jackets (+220/-300)

The Columbus Blue Jackets are a team to be optimistic about. The oddsmakers don’t like them but this is a team that barely missed the playoffs last season and is only getting better. Goaltending and depth remain issues, and it will probably hold them back.

Otherwise, the Blue Jackets have the difference-makers in their core, led by elite defenseman Zach Werenski. They also have young skaters entering the primes of their careers, notably Adam Fantilli, who is coming off a 30-goal season. It makes them a great bet with better odds. 

Sell: New York Islanders (+240/-320)

The New York Islanders retooled on the fly this offseason, adding young talent to the farm system. It’s a reason to be optimistic about their outlook for this season and the future. The reality is they remain a year away from truly competing. 

The core is good and will get them on the bubble. The thing is that even if Matthew Schaefer or Calum Ritchie are on the team, they won’t make a significant impact this season. The depth, or lack thereof, ultimately leaves them on the outside of the playoffs looking in. 

Sell: New York Rangers (-200/+160)

The New York Rangers are a favorable team for the oddsmakers because the core is elite, they have one of the best goaltenders in the NHL, and with Mike Sullivan behind the bench, they have stability. For a team that saw everything fall apart last season, a return to competitiveness is expected. 

The problem is that the Rangers are becoming a stale group, with the same veterans returning year in and year out. Normally, that isn’t an issue but without a good pipeline, it leaves this team a mess, and the defense, particularly, can let them down. 

Sell: Philadelphia Flyers (+260/-350)

There’s some optimism for a team that hasn’t had much of it in recent seasons. The new coaching staff, a youth movement, and most importantly, Matvei Michkov, provide it. It’s why they are a good bet to make the playoffs. That said, they are the team to avoid as their goaltending issues and questions on defense (there’s no true No. 1 defenseman to be found) and the center position might leave them a few points out of a playoff spot. 

Sell: Buffalo Sabres (+280/-370)

The odds aren’t great for them to miss the playoffs. That said, it’s hard to bet against that. The team with the longest drought in the NHL is expected to extend it for one more season. It’s frustrating since the Buffalo Sabres have elite talent with Tage Thompson on the top line and Rasmus Dahlin on the defense, yet the pieces fail to mesh, which ultimately reflects poorly on the coaching staff. 

Sell: Detroit Red Wings (+260/-350)

The Detroit Red Wings are close to the playoffs. There’s also a lot of pressure on Steve Yzerman to make the moves to get this team over the hump. With the John Gibson addition, it’s possible they rounded out their roster and are good enough to make the playoffs. 

Here’s the thing: their roster still has glaring weaknesses. In the big picture, Yzerman has a lot of good players but not the star power that can take over games. On top of that, they don’t have depth, which is surprising considering how great the farm system was in the past few rankings by many experts. 

Sell: St. Louis Blues (-115/-115)

A lot of people are high on the St. Louis Blues, and they should be. They looked like a great team down the stretch and look poised for another step forward. However, they are a team to avoid and could miss the playoffs.

The problem is they overachieved last season. Without a winning streak in the middle of the season, they don’t make the playoffs, and with a good but not great roster, there’s a chance they miss the playoffs by a few points this season. 

Sell: Utah (-125/-105)

This team is the Detroit Red Wings of the Western Conference. They’ve rebuilt for a while and have a great farm system. They also have plenty of good players but not the difference makers. It’s why they are the team to avoid when everyone is expecting them to make that leap into the playoffs. 

Sell: Anaheim Ducks (+250/-340)

Like Utah, a lot of people are high on the Anaheim Ducks. It makes sense. Their young players are starting to enter the primes of their careers, and they have an elite goaltender with Lukas Dostal in the net, and Joel Quenneville is expected to bring them to the playoffs. 

The question is how the veterans who are well past their prime will hold up. Can Chris Kreider add depth to the forward unit? Can Jacob Trouba round out the defense? Their depth is reliant on veterans who are starting to decline, and it’s a reason to be cautious when looking at their playoff chances. 

Sell: Los Angeles Kings (-350/+260)

The Los Angeles Kings are a surefire playoff team; their overall roster is too good not to be. That said, their offseason was a questionable one, and it could backfire. They added older skaters with the playoffs in mind but to win in the playoffs, they must it there first, and this team could take a significant step back. 

Buy: Calgary Flames (+270/-350)

The Calgary Flames are a sneaky team in the Western Conference. They have elite goaltending with Dustin Wolf leading the way and a good defense. With some young skaters starting to make their marks on the forward unit, they can be a surprise playoff team. 

The offense is the reason to avoid them. They averaged 2.6 goals per game last season, and to make the playoffs, they’ll need to win a lot of 2-1 or even 1-0 games. That said, the team stepped up offensively down the stretch to the point that they only missed out on a playoff spot due to the tiebreaker rules. One more point would have gotten Ryan Huska’s team into the postseason.

Is a momentum carryover a guarantee? No. However, they CAN do that, especially if Wolf takes another step forward. They can be the new version of the Winnipeg Jets, where the roster might not be elite, and it won’t matter with elite goaltending and a surprisingly high depth of “good not great” talents leading them. 

Many of the Flames’ most vocal critics come from within their own fanbase. However, around the rest of the league, Calgary is considered a dangerous opponent: scrappy, driven, and with a top young goalie to steal games.

Buy: Vancouver Canucks (+105/-135)

There are two ways to look at the Vancouver Canucks this season. Either they will bounce back after a rough season, or the 2023-24 season was the real outlier. When everything went wrong, they were still a borderline playoff team, so they are worth buying on (albeit with slight optimism).

The assumption is that Quinn Hughes, who is a Norris Trophy-level defenseman, continues to take over games. Likewise, Brock Boeser, who is around long-term, will bounce back, and the same should happen with Elias Pettersson, their top-line center. Throw in reliable goaltending, and this team should be in the playoffs.