Can This Game 7 Be Different?

The Toronto Maple Leafs have faced a deciding game or Game 7 in the Brendan Shanahan/Core Four era many times and have gone 0 for 5 in that span, so for those awaiting series clinching game between the Leafs and Florida Panthers at Scotiabank Arena on Sunday, the thought going through their heads has to be why would tonight be any different?

Toronto improbably came back from their worst performance in the postseason in a 6-1 thrashing in Game 5 to play a nearly perfect road game in a 2-0 win at Amerant Bank Arena on Friday, but that was easy based on the fact that they had almost no pressure on them. The Leafs were on the road, the Panthers were perfectly positioned to slam the door on the Leafs season, and after losing so badly at home, nearly everyone thought they were ready to fold up their tents on the season.

Now back in Toronto, the Panthers are still the favorite to win because they are the reigning Cup champions, because they came through in the Cup Final 11 months ago after surrendering a 3-0 lead, and because it’s the Leafs and their record in this scenario is pathetic. To expect something other than a loss is just not logical.

Here’s a brief look at what this group has done since 2018:

April 25, 2018: Boston 7, Toronto 4

Leafs get two first-period goals from Patrick Marleau, which were quickly erased by Bruins tallies. Boston led 3-2 after 1, Toronto re-took the lead in the second on goals by Travis Dermott and Kasperi Kapanen, but Boston scores four third-period goals.

Low lights – Frederik Andersen, 6 GA on 36 shots, Jake Gardiner -5

Mitch Marner – 1A, -2, 19:51 TOI

William Nylander – 2A, -1, 16:18 TOI

Auston Matthews – +1, 18:06 TOI

April 23, 2019: Boston 5, Toronto 1

Leafs cannot win Game 6 in Toronto, trail Game 7 throughout, John Tavares narrows the lead to 2-1 in the second, but Boston pulls away with an early goal in the third and two empty-netters.

John Tavares – 1G, -1, 21:19 TOI

Nylander, Matthews, Marner, Rielly – No points -8

August 9, 2020: Columbus 3, Toronto 0

Toronto gets stymied by a 33-save shutout performance by Joonas Korpisalo in the bubble. Columbus takes the lead on a Zach Werenski goal and holds on until the middle of the third, when they get a pair more. Andersen, in his final playoff start as a Leaf, makes 19 saves.

Tavares – – 1, 21:48 TOI

Matthews – -1, 22:12 TOI

Nylander – -3, 17:57 TOI

Marner – -1, 23:12 TOI

Rielly – -1, 28:29 TOI

May 31, 2021: Montreal 3, Toronto 1

The most brutal of the Game 7 defeats, because the Leafs could not recover from the loss of Tavares and crumbled after leading the Habs 3-1. Leafs falls behind 2-0 on goals by Brendan Gallagher and Corey Perry, and cannot beat Carey Price until late in the third after Montreal had padded their lead with an empty-netter.

Marner – -1, 23:55 TOI

Nylander 1G, 22:09 TOI

Matthews 1A, 24:46 TOI

Tavares – Did Not Play

Rielly – -1, 26:17 TOI

May 14, 2022: Tampa Bay 2, Toronto 1

Two words – Nick Paul

Leafs are done in by the Lightning’s depth forwards two goals, the second coming with 3:28 left in the third period. Jack Campbell makes 23 saves in his final game as a Leaf.

Marner 1A, -1, 24:16 TOI

Matthews 1A, 25:04 TOI

Nylander 21:31 TOI

Tavares 21:52 TOI

Rielly 1G, 22:57 TOI

May 4, 2024: Boston 2, Toronto 1 (OT)

Nylander puts the Leafs in the lead midway through the third period, Hampus Lindholm ties the game less than two minutes later, and the Bruins win the game less than two minutes into overtime on a David Pastrnak goal, where he burns Marner and Rielly to beat Ilya Samsonov.

Marner – -1, 20:04 TOI

Matthews – 1A, +1, 17:35 TOI

Nylander – 1G, 22:26 TOI

Rielly – -2, 24:58 TOI

Tavares – -1, 18:01 TOI

The common thread through all these games is that Toronto got very limited positive performances from their core players, and in none of the five games did they get a standout performance in goal.

Why Could This Year Be Different?

1 – The Leafs defense is better this year than in any of the previous seasons. Three solid pairings, and they will need to be in Game 7.

2 – Joseph Woll has shown an ability to come up big in clutch situations.

3 – This Toronto team knows how to put forth a playoff-style victory; they did it in Game 6 with their back against the wall.

4 – Leafs are getting secondary contributions up front (Pacioretty, Domi) and on defense (Benoit)

Good news for the Leafs is the status of winger Matthew Knies. The young forward collided behind the net with Panthers defenseman Niko Mikkola and missed some time in Game 6, but the 22-year-old took the morning skate and head coach Craig Berube indicated that he will be in his normal spot on the left side with Matthews and Marner.

Evan Rodrigues will return to the Florida lineup in place of Jesper Boqvist.