I do agree this no longer a destination franchise. Having players waive NMC to come here is going to be unlikely. The few times an elite talent becomes available without a NMC (ie Quinn Hughes), the organization cannot just say “oh well, we got outbid”. Since free agency is not an option and the current regime has no interest in team stripping to get close to top 5 for the next couple of drafts, the only way forward is more Zegras and Jiricek trades. Players who have not lived up to their pre draft hype. That’s why the team has to be willing to move Tippett and/or Foerster this summer. See if they can get Berniers out of SEA. Another organization going no where with a high draft pick who has not lived up to his hype on a long-term contract. Notice he does not have a NMC clause. The regime will need some luck and a HC to maximize the skill of Michkov and Martone. I’m not sure which is more likely- getting the luck needed to win big in Zegras type trades or the current HC who can maximize his players’ performance.
Every franchise goes through the process of being a “non destination franchise”, very few franchises stay competitive for more than a decade or so before they start to decline. As a general rule of thumb. Look at the Coyotes/Mammoth, we sucked in Arizona for how long? 20 years? Until we hired a GM, Bill Armstrong in Sept 2020, who was committed to properly rebuild, with the blessing of ownership, Arizona was a no-go destination. Now we have some good young players and a new owner who’s committed to winning. Right now you’re in the John Chayka phase, eventually you’ll get to the point where Briere is gone and ownership submits to a proper rebuild, although, you’re already set up pretty good with picks for 2026 and 2027 where you have two 1st’s and two 3rd’s.
First, fair play to Utah no longer being an irrelevant franchise. Certainly, Weeger did waive his NTC to come to Utah. I think we can agree Weeger is a really good Dman, not elite (not many elite Dman in the league-not meant to be a dig). However, I do think there are destination franchises that truly elite players will only waive to go to in a trade in this current environment. The no state tax franchises do have an advantage. Bettman can downplay that factor all he wants, but it is a factor with today’s player simply because of the salary cap. Some players like Panarin enjoy playing in large media markets. Pre cap the Flyers had a tremendous advantage with Snider at the helm. The Flyers and other big market teams just would outspend other franchises because they had such an advantage accumulating revenue.
Hypothetically, let’s assume B. Tkachuk and A. Matthews decide they will not extend with their current franchises in a few years. As a Flyers fan, I would be shocked to see them waive to come here. Does the Utah franchise have a better chance then Philly to land them? Probably. On the same level as Vegas, TB, FLA, DAL, CHI, LA, or NYR? Probably not. So I disagree with you it is only cyclical based upon if a franchise is playing competitive hockey. In 5 years, may be my opinion will change.