As for Marner’s replacement numbers/impact:
Hard to say, but FLA for example, TBL, etc. are never using the standings as any kind of metric: it’s all about mile markers towards playoff preparedness, individually and as a team. They’ve fully embraced the “playoffs is like a different league” mentality and built a team around that.
And yet, Florida aren’t rolling into the playoffs with 95 points and winning the Cup. Florida ran to the Finals as a Wild Card but lost. They won the Cup when they won the division last year. Vegas won the Cup in 2023, also won their division. So did Colorado in 2022. Tampa Bay sandbagged with LTIR in 2020 and 2021 so they could have also won the division as both seasons were shortened by COVID. As did Washington the year they finally beat Pittsburgh in 2018.
I’d still say the Leafs are way better off winning the division and getting the easier match-up than they are trying to underdog it as a wild card team.
Like I think if the Leafs got Bennett and Marchand, for example, this team would still be a 95+ point team, assuming Matthews is healthy.
95 points could mean you miss the playoffs. Bennett’s career high is 51 points. And Marchand is 37 and also had 51 points last year. How much gas you think these guys have left in the tank for the playoffs if he has to scratch and claw to make the playoffs? Especially Bennett who has had 3 deep playoff runs in a row.
Leafs should’ve shut down Matthews for the last 8-10 weeks, spent over the cap like all the good teams do when their star players are hurt, and worried less about home-ice advantage, which clearly didn’t do much in the grand scheme of things.
Agreed. After the 4 Nations, he should have been shut down. It would have allowed the Leafs to have even more deadline cap space and probably allows them to add better players than Carlo and Laughton who were both pretty big disappointments considering the price they paid and who the Panthers got. Seth Jones vs Carlo and Laughton vs Marchand. That’s a giant difference in deadline day upgrades that proved to be a big difference on the ice too.
Let’s say we get Bennett and Marchard, DNA changing players built for playoffs, proven playoff performers; generally clutch guys.
I think assuming the Leafs getting Bennett and Marchand is like assuming they’re getting McDavid in 2026 as a UFA. I think it’s a long shot dream scenario that probably doesn’t pan out in the Leafs favor. They’re going back to Florida, they’d be major league idiots not to.
Knies Matthews Domi: the line is a little less effective defensively, but you still have a Selke nominee center, plus Knies is a responsible 200′ player in the making, so it’s not like a huge drop-off there at 5v5. It’s a little less crafty/shifty, but it’s also quite a bit more intense, physical, puck battle-winning line with Domi on it.
Giant drop off for Matthews and Knies. I’d say combined, that line probably scores 20-30 less goals without Marner. Probably get scored on another 10-15 extra times too. Domi takes penalties and can’t play defense. So don’t expect Matthews to be some kind of defensive wizard when he has to take care of his area as well as Domi’s. That probably costs Matthews a bunch of goals too just having to play more time in his own zone because of Domi.
Domi was tried as a top-line player. He failed. He is, at best, a 3rd liner who can occasionally play on the 2nd line if his C and RW are rock solid. Which, on the Leafs, they are not.
McMann Tavares Nylander: no changes obviously, although McMann has room to improve and I don’t think Tavares takes a really step back here.
Horrible line to go back to exactly the same considering McMann scored 0 playoff goals, Tavares was shutout in 6 out of 7 games and Nylander disappeared after Game 3. Sorry, but if this is your 2nd line, you are losing in the 1st round 75% of the time and going beyond the 2nd round 0% of the time.
Nylander is horrid defensively and so is Tavares. You can afford to keep Nylander. But Tavares can’t even score his way out of his horrible defense anymore. This line is why the Leafs lose in the playoffs. That’s what nobody seems to understand or learn.
Robertson Bennett Marchand: a massive upgrade over the 3rd lines we’ve had, and we’re now truly capable of scoring across all three (maybe 4) lines. Robertson will get a lot of time/space with that line, and he has a Mighty Midget in Marchand to look up to, not to mention Bennett. Maybe Robertson’s gone, but a scoring complementary winger here who can pot 15+ goals would be great and I think a full season of Robbie here could definitely work.
Robertson is dog shit. There’s no way the Leafs land these two guys and then saddle them with Robertson AND slap them on the 3rd line. Bennett and Marchand cost the Leafs, at least, 9 and 8 AAV each. There’s no way you can afford to pay that much to put them on the 3rd line and expect to win games.
Lorentz Laughton Holmberg: a line that will get buried in DZ starts and will probably come out even, and maybe even pot a few here and there, but will be relied upon for majority of the PK duties. Definitely opportunity to tinker here for not a lot of cap space.
Lorentz and Laughton can get another chance (as rotational players) but Holmberg is another dog shitter. If this is the Leafs 4th line, expect 0 goals and more playoff failure.