They might grab a lower or middle tier free agent or two, but bringing in a top tier talent is probably going to involve a trade. Given the Leafs track record with trades and their current relations with other GM’s, I wouldn’t expect to pull off a case of highway robbery, but maybe Tree can get creative with three-way trades, retention, etc.
The Leafs don’t need highway robbery, but they do need to “win” a trade or at least make a solid trade that improves the team.
I’d like to see the following :
1) Marner stays for $11m or $12m. (very very very unlikely)
Marner has the misfortune of having to pay taxes in Canada. That means he will take home significantly less money than his cap hit will suggest he makes. The NHL has no will to change it any time soon either.
Rantanen makes 12 AAV in Dallas which means he actually takes home 7,601,813. For Marner to make the exact same amount, he’d have to have a cap hit of 16.4 AAV to take home 7,664,895. Everybody needs to stop and think about that for a second. That’s how bad the taxes fuck over the Leafs trying to sign players who negotiate based on what they’re taking home. So if Marner is asking for 13 AAV, in reality he is only taking home 6,084,445 for 8 years and a total of 48.6 million dollars. When compared to the 7,601,813 per year Rantanen takes home, it’s actually fair value. The fair compromise for both sides is 13.16 x 8 and Marner is actually taking a discount just nobody is realizing it.
If Utah were to give him 13 AAV, he would take home 7,640,313 per year for 7 years which totals 53.4 million dollars.
In Vegas (an immediate Cup contender), he would take home 8,231,813 for 7 years totals 57.6 million dollars.
Which means, if Utah or Vegas offered him 11 AAV, he’d still make more money, with a lower cap hit, playing for Utah or Vegas than he would for the Leafs at 13 million AAV.
This IS NOT a matter of greed. Marner could be leaving anywhere between 5-10 million dollars on the table to play for the Leafs at that price. He’s not negotiating for nickels and dimes in difference.
2) Marner does a sign and trade allowing the Leafs to recoup some assets (again, not very likely).
Marner has taken a 6 year deal before, Matthews took a 4 year deal. I don’t think the extra year matters to Marner if he’s decided to test UFA status because the sooner he can be a UFA again, the better it is for him. If he’s gone, he’s gone. The Leafs get and deserve nothing for their horrible mismanagement.
3) Weaponize the free space if Marner walks, but don’t be stupid with it. Don’t go throwing term at dudes on the wrong side of 30 unless an eventual trip to Robidas Island is part of the plan (ala the Gourde contract). Also, don’t shoot your wad on a guy like Ehlers. Who does this leave? Probably guys like Gavikrov, Beauvillier, Fabro, Tanev, and maybe take a flier on a project like Drouin or Patty Kane if the price is cheap.
The UFA market is not there to be weaponized. The last time the Leafs “weaponized” the UFA market, they got fucked in the ass with Tavares. The UFA market has nothing to offer the Leafs except complimentary pieces. And those complimentary pieces would only help the Leafs if they kept their leading point producer, not to try and replace him. Let’s go one by one through what would be top-six forwards “UFA list” and give you the reasons why the majority on this list are either garbage, not better or won’t sign with the Leafs.
Boeser is horrid. -25 player who deserves his -25. He was a 50 point player last year, only made the playoffs twice in his career. This guy is like a less athletic, Value Village Kessel.
Ehlers, not leaving Winnipeg, soft as baby shit, not a playoff performer, not a 100 point, Selke nominee, PKer. Most of his playoff runs ended with 0 goals. This guy is Value Village Nylander.
Tavares. Is. Garbage. 7 years of his prime, he can’t skate, he can’t defend and he didn’t score in 6 out of 7 games against the Panthers. This guy was the definition of bad DNA. Show him the door.
Duchene. Value Village Tavares. Horrid defensively, can’t score 5v5. Basically a PP weapon who can’t play in any other situation. Cheap but ineffective.
Nelson, very good size, good player staying in Colorado, has no reason to play in Toronto (from Minnesota) unless you massively overpay him. And he’s 33. Not going to be a “prime years” contract. Usually a 50 point player most of his career. 0 playoff goals in 7 games for Colorado this year. ZERO.
Giroux, not leaving Ottawa, hasn’t been a 100 point player in 7 years. Basically another 50 point guy on the wrong side of 37. Hasn’t been a playoff performer since 2012.
Palmieri, off the market. Also, 34 anyway…
Drouin has 1 playoff goal in his last 20 playoff games and he had the benefit of playing with MacKinnon. If he knows what’s good for him, he’ll stay in Colorado and continue being a passenger over there.
Suter, is better than Malgin, I’ll give him that but still, 2 playoff goals in 13 career playoff games? Don’t see this guy moving the needle that much.
Granlund, good player but 32, why would he leave all his Finnish buddies in Dallas after going so deep this year?
Benn is washed, from BC, no reason to come to the Leafs. Probably just stays in Dallas for 1 year, 1 million dollar deals.
Kuzmenko, one year wonder, completely unreliable.
Donato, from Boston, why would he don’t see why he wouldn’t go back to Chicago / Boston unless you overpaid him. 0 playoff goals in 19 playoff games.
Roslovic, from Ohio, don’t see why he’d leave Carolina or come to Toronto unless you overpaid him. 3 career playoff goals in 45 games. Already have enough Jarnkroks and Kampfs. Don’t need another.
Mangiapane, 5’10”, 14 goals, 28 points. This guy can’t replace Marner except if it’s in a police line-up for the height and weight. If he takes a super cheap contract, he’s worth a shot but probably not a legit top-six threat in the playoffs as his career playoff numbers are unimpressive. 7 playoff goals, 14 points in 37 games.
The complimentary players need to be acquired via trade. You can get some of them by exchanging Jarnkrok, Kampf, McMann and Robertson. Between those 4 guys, you can get enough capital to flip for McBain and Jenner, if not directly. Draft picks be damned, the Leafs will trade them all later anyway. Any prospect except Cowan should be available. And even Cowan has a price tag if it lands a big enough fish. He’s too young and too small to be effective in the window of opportunity the Leafs have currently backed themselves into. Robertson was a goal scoring machine in the OHL but has been basically useless in the NHL. Cowan is better than Robertson but suffers from the same issues and will ultimately take longer than 3 years before we get what we need out of him. He should be given a chance but he’s not untouchable either.
4) Jesus Fucking Christ, we gotta do something about Rielly. If he’s coked out, put him in rehab and bury his caphit. If he refuses a trade, then redeploy him as a second pairing guy and go after someone like Provorov. Leafs need another top pair D guy. It won’t come cheap. Maybe use some of the Marner cap space. Also, minor tip here – chatter is that Tampa is cutting bait with Nick Perbix. He’s actually a solid 3rd pair guy who will come cheap. I’d snag him if he leaves Tampa (just for depth).
Agreed on Rielly having to be removed. Leafs absolutely need to drop Rielly off in Vancouver or Seattle. Whether people agree or disagree on Marner staying or going, Rielly must go away as soon as possible. He’s not on cocaine, he just sucks defensively. He has since the day he was drafted. He has enough offensive value you can get some depth pieces in return like a 4C and a 3rd pair D. Enough to be useful for the Leafs but nothing directly the same price or role.
But after he’s gone, they don’t need another top pair D. I think the only option the Leafs have now is to acquire a 3rd pair D for Rielly and sign another depth offensive D for the 3rd pair. At this point, the Leafs are locked into having a bunch of old guys as their D core. If you can have 3 balanced LD/RD who can play 20 min each, the Leafs can just do it by committee.
I would prefer to bring in Brent Burns as the Leafs depth D. He’s from Barrie, he’s 40, he’s got a huge shot for the PP. Maybe he does us a favor and gives us a retirement contract discount. He’s looking to win a Cup on a contender, he spent most of his career in San Jose and Carolina. He might come for the ride with his hometown team at this point.
5) Blockbuster trade that brings in an elite centerman or winger to replace Marner. I’ll hold my breath on this one, but I’m giving Tree a chance here to blow us away with something unforseen and off the board.
Not happening, the Leafs don’t have the assets unless they decide to trade Nylander. In that case, a 2nd line C and a 2nd pair D might help the Leafs and allow them to keep Marner if they move Nylander for the pieces they can’t find as UFAs. At this point, just getting rid of Rielly for depth pieces would be a blockbuster.
I think Berube could make Marner and the “DNA” improve if the right pieces are brought in to compliment him,as Uggie keeps going on about. He’s not wrong about that. But, who is actually available right now? I don’t want to hear Bennett or Marchand. The first is a dirty piece of shit that wouldn’t come to TO unless he’s grossly overpaid, and the other is a bionic geezer piece of shit who is definitely on the wrong side of the aging curve to throw term at.
This is how you change the DNA of a team. Bunch of hometown Tarana boys who play North, South, violent hockey.
Knies @ 7×3 | Matthews | Marner @ 13.16×8
R. Smith @ 4.25×3 | Jenner @ 3.75×1 | Nylander
Domi | McBain @ 3.5×3 | B. Tanev @ 1.75×2 (or Corey Perry)
Laughton | Blueger @ 1.8×1 | Lorentz @ 1×1
Comtois @ 850 (or Pacioretty if he doesn’t retire)
OEL | Tanev
McCabe | T. Myers
Burns @ 2×1* | Carlo
Benoit
*(if he doesn’t retire, hometown guy because he’s from Barrie. Could be the ultimate utility player as both a 7th D and a 13th forward.)
Realistically, having said all of the rambling shit above, unless Matthews goes Super Saiyan next year and puts the team on his back, the Leafs are going to take a step back without Marner.
Marner’s absence will significantly hurt Matthews (as if he wasn’t bad enough in the playoffs). The stats clearly show, the Leafs can win without Matthews, Nylander, Tavares and Rielly. But their record without Marner is significantly worse. Matthews will struggle to reach 60+ goals. Might be a challenge to reach 50 again if Domi is the guy they put up at RW. Nylander doesn’t work with Matthews because they’re both at their best when they shoot first.
The only guy you can bring in to temporarily replace maybe 50-60% of what Marner can do offensively is Patrick Kane. But he’s 37, often injured and hasn’t been effective in the playoffs since 2015. So even Patrick Kane replacing Marner is a big stretch. You also have to bring in Rielly Smith to replace Marner’s defensive responsibilities, especially on the PK. But again, he’s also 34. The Leafs are trying to piece together one 100 point, Selke nominee, 28 year old with two guys on the wrong side of 30. It will look good on paper but the game is played on ice.