The false dream of the UFA class of 2026

[Metalhead]

Forums here and elsewhere, are speckled with posters advocating for their team leaving money available for the 2026 UFA class.
“The 2025 UFA class is bad”. “Marner’s weak in the playoffs, Tavares sucks in the playoffs and is old.”
Nelson, Giroux, Benn, are a combination of “old” “bad” “too expensive” and unlikely to leave their current team.

Here’s the real problem for 2026, though:
The UFA class of 2025 was a lot bigger/better 12 months ago.

Draisaitl signed an extension before the season started.
Rantanen made it to the trade deadline but still got extended.

Some other potential 2025 free agents who got extended before reaching free agency:
Jake Oettinger*
Adin Hill*
Juuse Saros*
Linus Ullmark*
Igor Shesterkin*
Carter Verhaeghe*
Mackenzie Blackwood*
Logan Thompson* (I grouped the goalies to point out that the 2025 goalie UFA group didn’t always suck. It sucks now because most got extended)
Esa Lindell
Jake Guentzel (TBL paid a 3rd rounder to get their hands on him 1 day before free agency)
Victor Hedman
Neal Pionk
Shea Theodore
Jaccob Slavin
Jakob Chychrun
Pavel Buchnevich
Travis Konecny
I’m sure there are a few on this list that people will laugh about. It is not intended to be superstars only.
The point is, 12 months ago they were on the 2025 UFA list just like the 2026 UFA class are all listed now. Fans were hoping many would hit free agency. They didn’t.
Additional math for the 2026 UFA dreamers—
The 2026/27 salary cap, which is the one that matters for signing the 2026 UFAs, is expected to be $104 million.
That means teams have $16 million new cap money by then to sign their own UFAs. (+7.5 for 25/26, +8.5 for 26/27)
So even if McDavid gets $16 million/year, it can all be done with cap money that did not exist for the hockey season that just ended.
Kaprizov? More likely than McDavid, but Minnesota also has a ton of cap room coming free on July 1st from the Parise/Suter buyout reductions.
Will any of Eichel, Connor, Laine or Necas make it to 7/1/2026 without an extension? Or a trade > extension like Rantanen?

I would expect that the currently dreamy looking 2026 UFA class will look similar to the current 2025 class on 5/31/2026.

Metalhead

[Metalhead]

List looks great now ! Save cap room ! Help is only a contract away !
I doubt it will look great next June. Will update occasionally as extensions or sign/trade deals happen.

Yes Gladys, there are some less desirable 2026 UFAs on this list.
They are there to help show how the list diminishes before 07/01/2026.

“Already Extended” list:
Thatcher Demko

“Pending UFAs” list:
Connor McDavid
Kirill Kaprizov
Kyle Connor
Martin Necas
Adrian Kempe
Andre Kuzmenko
Rasmus Andersson
Jack Eichel
Alex Tuch
Adam Lowry
Patrik Laine
Artemi Panarin
Jacob Trouba
John Carlson
Viktor Arvidsson
Oliver Bjorkstrand
Christian Dvorak
Anders Lee
Boone Jenner
Mike Matheson
Mattias Ekholm
Cam Fowler
Evander Kane
Vlad Tarasenko
Carson Soucy
Adam Henrique
Jake Walman
Charlie Coyle
Jean-Gabriel Pageau
Mathieu Joseph
Trevor van Riemsdyk
Mason Marchment
Radko Gudas
Nick Schmaltz
Jamie Oleksiak
Alex Wennberg
Alex Kerfoot
Michael Bunting
Erik Gudbranson
Ilya Mikheyev
Matt Dumba
Jaden Schwartz
Jordan Eberle
Luke Schenn
Logan Stanley
Connor Murphy
Jeff Skinner
***Goalies***
Ivan Fedotov
Anthony Stolarz
Stuart Skinner
Scott Wedgewood
Connor Ingram
Vitek Vanacek
Jacob Markstrom
Freddy Andersen
Petr Mrazek
***old guys***
Alex Ovechkin
Evgeni Malkin
Patrick Kane
Anze Kopitar

[Metalhead]

9/30/25 some updates.

Yes Gladys, there are some less desirable 2026 UFAs on this list.
They are there to help show how the list diminishes before 07/01/2026.

“2026 Pending UFAs” list:
Connor McDavid
———————————Kirill Kaprizov extended pre-season
Kyle Connor
Martin Necas
Adrian Kempe
Andre Kuzmenko
Rasmus Andersson
Jack Eichel
Alex Tuch
Adam Lowry
Patrik Laine
Artemi Panarin
Jacob Trouba
John Carlson
Viktor Arvidsson
Oliver Bjorkstrand
Christian Dvorak
Anders Lee
Boone Jenner
Mike Matheson
Mattias Ekholm
Cam Fowler
Evander Kane
Vlad Tarasenko
Carson Soucy
Adam Henrique
Jake Walman
Charlie Coyle
Jean-Gabriel Pageau
Mathieu Joseph
Trevor van Riemsdyk
Mason Marchment
Radko Gudas
Nick Schmaltz
Jamie Oleksiak
Alex Wennberg
Alex Kerfoot
Michael Bunting
Erik Gudbranson
Ilya Mikheyev
Matt Dumba
Jaden Schwartz
Jordan Eberle
Luke Schenn
Logan Stanley
Connor Murphy
Jeff Skinner
***Goalies***
————————————–Thatcher Demko extended 2025 off-season
————————————–Anthony Stolarz extended pre-season
Stuart Skinner
Scott Wedgewood
Connor Ingram
Vitek Vanacek
Jacob Markstrom
Freddy Andersen
Ivan Fedotov
Petr Mrazek
***old guys***
Alex Ovechkin
Evgeni Malkin
Patrick Kane
————————————Anze Kopitar announced final season

[Chunk]

This is why any heavy lifting on bringing in new guys would have to be done by trade. Listening to what KD’s said in interviews and seeing how they are going about this year, I can only imagine that they really won’t be all that active on either front (FA or trades). It sounds like he wants to blend in as many of his picks as he can and see what they become. At this point I think we’ll all just have to wait and see.

At the end of this year, we’ll have a better idea of what Moore and Greene are, who rises to the top of the D-men, probably get a cup of coffee for Lardis, maybe Misiak, maybe Frondell, big long shot of Kantserov coming over. Assuming a relatively high pick in the 2026 draft as well, and all these other kids starting to matriculate up.

Unless most of them just fall on their face, why would KD backfill with more vets (you know, aside from Lafferty)?

[Author]

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