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I left the numbers out of my original post, but here they are, just in case:
Laine, Caufield, Gallagher and Heineman scored 33/47 (70%) of the Canadiens’ PP goals this season. Their respective shooting percentages were 23.8, 23.8, 31.3 and 30, which all ranked in the best 25% among the forwards who played at least 50 minutes of PP. That’s likely not sustainable.
This season, the Habs in total scored 7.3 goals per 60 minutes on PP. In 23–24, they scored 6.4. In terms of scoring chances, they had 7.1 expected goals and 44.9 scoring chances per 60 minutes this season, while the same numbers in 23–24 were 7.1 and 51.6.
The effect of better finishing and/or shooting luck shows quite clearly here. It also seems that the effect of Alexandre Burrows running or not running the PP might be a little exaggerated.
Source: NaturalStatTrick
They have little to lose, so I have an out-of-the-box type of an idea.
Was the PP better than it was in 22–23 or 23–24?
Yes, in a way. Their PP percentage was higher, and in the end, that’s all that matters. But: they actually created less scoring chances than they did in 23–24.
Laine and Caufield’s very high shooting percentages helped quite a bit, and it’s possible that next year, the Habs will score less goals on the PP than they did this year, if they keep playing the same way.
That could be the case even with Laine playing all the 82 games and Caufield getting shot attempts out of himself on his usual rate instead of this season’s very low rate.
So why not just blow it up completely?
We know that they’ve been using the same PP formation as almost every NHL team uses, the 1-3-1 formation with Slafkovský in front of the net, Laine, Caufield and Suzuki in the middle and Hutson on the blueline.
With the new acquisitions they have, they could have a chance to try something completely new with the first unit. The second unit can still play with the old formation.
I suggest that instead of 1-3-1, the first unit should try the so-called overload formation, in which (in this case) they pack their entire unit on the left side of the offensive zone.
Demidov positions himself close tho the goal line and is ready to make plays from behind the net.
Suzuki is near the left faceoff circle to feed passes to every direction.
Behind him on the blueline, is one of the best perimeter shooters in the world, Patrik Laine.
The other blueliner is, of course, Lane Hutson.
And the last piece is the left-handed shooter they just acquired, Zachary Bolduc, whose job is to make space for himself between the faceoff dots and wait for Suzuki and Demidov’s passes.
This kind of formation opens up possibilities to change it on the fly and make the PP really move; when Demidov has the puck down low, they overload, when Hutson has it on the blueline, they can widen it up by moving Laine to his usual spot and Bolduc to the same spot on the opposite side.
No, they wouldn’t have the big net-front presence in the first unit, but if you look at the goals they scored this season, in how many of those the net-front player played an irreplaceable role?
No, Caufield wouldn’t be on the first unit, because Laine is the better shooter of the two, but doesn’t a unit with Caufield, Slafkovský and Dobson sound like a decent PP anyway?
And no, this isn’t likely to happen, because I don’t see a reality in which Caufield doesn’t play with the first unit. But it’s something I would personally try.
