For seven straight years, the Carolina Hurricanes have been one of the top teams in the Metropolitan Division, reaching the second round in the Stanley Cup playoffs each season since 2019, and in three of those campaigns, they were able to reach the Eastern Conference Final.
But while Carolina has proven themselves to be a very good team in that stretch, they still hasn’t been able to take that next step in what appears to be a sizeable gap between them and the upper echelon of the Atlantic Division. Following their season-ending loss in Game 5 against the Florida Panthers Wednesday night, they were just 1-12 in those three third-round matchups against the winner of that bracket, and falling behind in all three series 3-0, winning only Game 4 on Monday in Sunrise in the baker’s dozen of conference final matchups.
The Hurricanes tried to be bold this season to try and close that gap, adding Mikko Rantanen in January from the Colorado Avalanche, but dealt him to the Dallas Stars in March when it was clear the forward wouldn’t be a long-term option for the Hurricanes. And while Logan Stankhoven had a very nice playoff for the Hurricanes this spring after being acquired in the second deal, it’s hard to argue this version of Carolina was any better than the ones that preceded them.
And facing a Panthers team that certainly looks better than the ones that reached the Stanley Cup Final the last two seasons, that isn’t good enough.
Despite the bold attempt to improve up front, the answer for the Hurricanes is one that the team has never addressed during their current run: the need for a goaltender and defensive help that can help a team last four grueling rounds in the postseason.
It’s unusual for a team to be able to lift the Stanley Cup without at least a very good goaltender, and if you don’t have one of those, your skaters have to be so suffocating to an opponent that essentially you play defense through your offense controlling play to the point where the shots on net against are limited. In recent years, the 2022 Colorado Avalanche were probably the best case of this type of team, winning the Stanley Cup with a tandem of Darcy Kuemper and Pavel Francouz, simply because their offensive talent imposed their will on opponents and allowed them to essentially play defense by offensive pressure limiting what other teams could generate.
The Edmonton Oilers are certainly hoping they can follow that mold, falling a game short last season and looking like they will make a return appearance to the Stanley Cup Final, but they also boast some all-world talent up front, and while the Hurricanes have a very nice group, they aren’t as dominant as Edmonton up front and need to close that gap in goal for them to have a shot at winning four rounds.
If you look at the three conference finals the Hurricanes have now lost, the two goaltenders Carolina faced were Boston’s Tuukka Rask and Florida’s Sergei Bobrovsky, who combined have three Vezina Trophies and now will appear in their fifth Stanley Cup Final. Carolina offered up Curtis McElhinney, Petr Mrazek, Antti Raanta, Frederik Andersen, and Pyotr Kochetkov.
This playoff, Andersen was very solid against a depleted New Jersey Devils team and a fading Washington Capitals roster, but facing the defending Stanley Cup champion Panthers, he just had one game above an .800 save percentage and was benched for Game 3, finishing with a .906 save percentage overall after coming in leading the league with a .937 percentage coming into the series.
Andersen also couldn’t make a save when the Hurricanes needed in Florida’s clincher on Wednesday night, allowing 3 goals on 3 straight shots with Carolina holding a 2-0 lead, and while the Canes came back to tie the contest in the third, a back-breaking goal with less than eight minutes left in what turned out to be their season.
Certainly, the first goal wasn’t Andersen’s fault with a deflection off Matthew Tkachuk’s stick. But allowing another goal through the five-hole 30 seconds later was both a breakdown by the Hurricanes defense and a stop Andersen needed to make with the season essentially on the line. Anton Lundell’s goal off a face-off also was one Andersen probably should have had, and Carter Verhaeghe’s series-winner in the third period was both a breakdown by the defense and a shot that Andersen dropped down for but ended up sailing high into the cage.
Quite simply, Andersen didn’t match the saves Bobrovsky made throughout the series, and that’s a big reason why the Panthers advanced to the Stanley Cup Final and the Hurricanes did not.
Andersen has shown he’s a capable netminder, playing very well in stretches, especially ones where the Hurricanes are able to control play and limit shots against. But in order to win the Stanley Cup, the level of play rises with each round, and so does the quality of opponent, and it’s becoming more and more evident that despite a good group of skaters, the defense and goaltending just aren’t good enough to win four rounds.
Complicating the fact is that after the first-round win over the Devils, the Hurricanes signed Andersen to a one-year, $2.75 million extension, not waiting to see how the playoffs played out before deciding on their tandem for next season. Andersen will turn 36 in October, meaning the Dane isn’t on the upside of his career, but more heading for decline sooner or later. Kotchetkov, who turns 26 next month, is signed for two more seasons at the tune of $2 million each year, so bringing in another netminder at this point now would mean having to ship off one of the two under NHL contracts.
And it’s not that Andersen has been poor, but simply not good enough to lead the Hurricanes through four grueling rounds, particularly having to face the Atlantic Division that has now sent 8 teams to the last 7 Stanley Cup Finals, including Montreal’s appearance against Tampa Bay in the 2021 COVID season. Carolina has proven it is one of the top teams in the Metropolitan Division over the last few seasons, but that group has fallen behind their Eastern counterparts, and with the window having been open for seven seasons for the Hurricanes to make a Finals run, it’s unclear how much longer the group has before they will have to retool to make another run at the franchise’s first Cup in what will now be two decades.
So the Hurricanes have shown they can reach the third round of the postseason, but need to make some changes to take that next step. While they have a very good team and decent goaltending, to take that next step, their upgrade doesn’t need to be up front as they tried with the Rantanen deal, but in net where they need a better performance to survive four rounds.
