Leafs Need A Loss To Secure Top-Five Slot

The Toronto Maple Leafs take on the Ottawa Senators in the final Battle of Ontario of the 2025-26 season, but based on the projected lineups in Game 82, it is more like the Toronto Marlies and Belleville Senators playing at the Canadian Tire Center. The Senators understandably are resting a sizable chunk of their star players to prevent them from getting injured in a meaningless game before taking on the Carolina Hurricanes in the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. For the Leafs, a victory would take their finishing in a top-five draft slot out of their hands.

The Leafs trail the Seattle Kraken by one point in the overall standings, if Toronto wins over the Senators, the Kraken would need to earn a point in one of their final two games, at Vegas on Wednesday or in Colorado on Thursday, as they would finish ahead because of the tiebreaker of regulation wins. The Golden Knights are in a battle for top spot in the Pacific, and would clinch the division with a victory over the Kraken, but like Ottawa, the Avalanche are likely to sit most of their top players in their finale, making it possible for Seattle to win or register a loser point.

Toronto can take this situation out of the Kraken’s hands by losing in regulation, overtime, or a shootout. According to Sportsnet’s Luke Fox, Dennis Hildeby (who was recalled from AHL Toronto on Wednesday) will make the start against the Sens. Fox also reports that Sens captain Brady Tkachuk, top center Tim Stutzle, former Leaf Michael Amadio, defensemen Jake Sanderson, and Thomas Chabot will not be in the lineup for Ottawa, and based on the fact that Linus Ullmark will likely carry the burden in net during the postseason, former Leaf James Reimer will get the start. 

Reimer played one game during the preseason on a tryout contract with Toronto, but was released after a bad third-period performance in Detroit. For the Sens, the veteran netminder is 6-4-2, with a 2.53 GAA. 

Once again, the situation for Toronto is far from ideal because of former GM Brad Treliving making the 2026 first-round pick top-five protected instead of top 10 protected. If the Leafs finish in the fifth slot, they have a 41.8% chance of picking first, second, third, or fifth, and a 58.2% chance of picking sixth or seventh. If they finish ahead of Seattle, they have only a 15.4% chance at winning one of the top three draft slots by winning the lottery. 

An interesting note from The Athletic’s Chris Johnston on his recent podcast about the future of head coach Craig Berube is essentially in limbo, that he does not expect the Leafs to fire him immediately and will wait until a new team president and/or GM is in place to determine his future. 

This is something that is puzzling, since it would put the new hire in a position of firing Berube as his first move. Keeping Berube on for another season would be a catastrophic error for the organization, as he has clearly displayed that he is a bad fit for this roster. The Leafs roster is likely going to go through significant changes before next season, but it was clear that the decision by Treliving to craft the roster more in the image of how Berube wanted them to play led in part to their downfall this season. Doubling down on failure would be just plain ignorant.