The Toronto Maple Leafs will not be selecting till the final pick in the second round of the 2025 NHL Draft in Los Angeles on Saturday, as the club’s first round pick is held by the Chicago Blackhawks from the 2023 trade that the Leafs acquired defenseman Jake McCabe. There should be a lot of news and chatter between now and then, and there has already been some this week, but the skeptical part of my brain is attempting to sort through the reports and interpret what to make of them.
Tavares And Knies – Close Or Far Apart?
It has really be difficult to follow the rumors regarding the status of negotiations between UFA center John Tavares and RFA winger Matthew Knies. First, on Tavares, the reports have varied from the two sides are not close to a deal is imminent. The most recent coming from The Athletic’s Pierre LeBrun saying that the Leafs and Tavares’ agent Pat Brisson still haven’t found their sweet spot on an extension and that the two sides weren’t close enough as of the weekend.
GM Brad Treliving has some leverage in that Tavares has made it clear he does not want to leave Toronto, but that has been counterbalanced by a number of potential free agent centers either signing (Brock Nelson, Matt Duchene) or rumored to be staying (Sam Bennett, Trent Frederic) with their current clubs.
LeBrun thinks the deal probably is going to get done, and there have been indicators that the Leafs will sign Tavares to a term similar to Chris Tanev’s (6 years) to keep the AAV down.
On Knies, the bone of contention is the term. Treliving is looking for as much term as possible, while the 22-year-old winger’s camp is looking for a shorter-term deal.
David Pagnotta of The Fourth Period say that talks are believed to be weighing either a deal of three to five years, or the Leafs preference of a longer-term deal.
It is understandable that many players are hesitant to commit long-term to deals and would prefer to bet on themselves right now, since the cap will go up over the next three years and could increase exponentially after that. Where Treliving cannot make the same mistake as predecessor Kyle Dubas is if Knies is intent on taking a bridge deal, the Leafs cannot be paying him as if it were a long-term deal.
Pagnotta says the Leafs are believed to be looking for a deal in the $4 million to $5 million range, whereas Knies wants to be in the neighborhood of $7 million per season. If it is $7 million AAV, the deal has to be at least six years.
Really With Rielly?
It continues to be hilarious the chatter surrounding Morgan Rielly. Sportsnet’s Nick Kypreos wrote in the Toronto Star recently that the Leafs want to pursue the trio of pending unrestricted free agents from the two-time Cup champion Florida Panthers in Sam Bennett, Brad Marchand, and Aaron Ekblad and that to do that, they need to convince Morgan Rielly to waive his no-movement clause.
Let’s dissect this, shall we. First, the majority of reports after the Panthers Cup victory earlier in the week is that GM Bill Zito and Bennett’s camp, headed by Darren Ferris, were not far apart on a long-term extension and that the center wants to stay in Florida. That does not mean it is a lock, but it seems probable.
Ekblad, as well, has indicated he wants to stay with the club that drafted him first overall in 2014, but his signing seems to have been less of a priority than Bennett. Had the Leafs not traded for Brandon Carlo and signed Chris Tanev, pursuing Ekblad would have been a higher priority for Treliving, but they did. With right-handed blueliners at a premium, it is doubtful that Toronto would be able to outbid more desperate clubs.
Marchand is the most likely of the three to leave the Panthers after playing wonderfully in the playoffs and being underpaid by the Bruins for years, but are the Leafs willing to pay a 37-year-old in the $7 – 8 million range for up to four years?
Lastly and most importantly, LeBrun and other insiders have indicated that Rielly does not want to leave Toronto and will not waive his no movement clause, so all the protestations from the fans and the media will fall of deaf ears.
Rielly will get the Marner treatment if he procrastinates over his no move clause. Will he enjoy that? Stay tuned.
Not with five years left. Not. Going. Anywhere.