The Toronto Maple Leafs will be out of action for more than two weeks, with the exception of team captain Auston Matthews, winger William Nylander, and defenseman Oliver Ekman-Larsson, who are making their way to Italy for the Winter Olympic hockey tournament, beginning next Wednesday. While their teammates are likely headed to someplace sunny and warm, the work is just beginning for GM Brad Treliving, who will have less than two weeks to work with between the roster freeze being lifted and the NHL trade deadline on March 6.
The Leafs, according to a variety of insiders, are in a posture of being sellers but more towards a quick reset and retool instead of a full rebuild. As it has been made clear from recent columns and various podcast appearances, my point of view is that the “tear it down to the studs” rebuild would be asinine, since the three main cogs at forward: Matthews, Nylander, and Matthew Knies, are all locked up for multiple years and are all under the age of 30, and both Matthews and Nylanders have full no-move clauses that would make it impossible for Toronto to get an equal return in a trade.
The retool would require a strategic selling off of assets for a maximum return before the deadline, including rental players, and players with term at positions where the Leafs have depth. We will take a look at each position on the roster and evaluate what Treliving could be prepared to do.
Defense – Part 2 – What to do with OEL and Carlo
The Toronto story on the blueline outside of what was covered in Monday’s piece has to do with asset management. As was discussed, trading Morgan Rielly is likely a dead-end unless his stance of leaving Toronto has changed since last summer, and the return for the likes of Troy Stecher, Henry Thrun, Philippe Myers, or Simon Benoit would likely be a mid-to-late round pick. With Stecher (a pending UFA) or Thrun (who has been relegated to the AHL Marlies for most of the season), if there is little or no interest in re-signing or qualifying them, then dealing them for a fourth or fifth round pick is better than nothing.
The major calculation to be made by Brad Treliving before March 6 on defense is whether to deal veteran Oliver Ekman-Larsson, righty Brandon Carlo, neither, or both.
OEL is having the best year of his career since his double-digit goal years in Arizona, with 34 points in 57 games at the break. The 34-year-old can still skate and create offense well, is not a liability defensively, has been more physical since his one-year stint in Florida, and can quarterback a power-play in a pinch. Carlo was part of the deadline deal with Boston and has played well since returning from a foot injury in November. Being right-handed with size are qualities that would make him attractive to contending clubs, as well as his playoff experience.
Both players have term remaining after this season (OEL – 2 years @ $3.5 million, Carlo – 1 year @ $3.485 million), which would make them more attractive to contenders because they would be getting the player for more than just this season, and from the Leafs perspective, more willing to give up a package of prospects and/or draft picks. Each player has limited no-trade clauses (OEL – 16-teams, Carlo – 8 teams).
Based on reports that MLSE is not on board with a long rebuild scenario, dealing both blueliners is unlikely, since restocking the shelves on the back end is the most difficult thing to accomplish with very few defensemen reaching free agency. Holding on to both of them would seem remote since they would help Toronto recoup a good chunk of draft and prospect capital, so the most likely course of action would be to trade one.
Age is a big determining factor in this situation. Ekman-Larsson is 34, and while it is possible that he does not significantly decline during the balance of his contract, the return as a Stanley Cup winner with his skills would be greater. Carlo turned 29 in November and expressed an interest in staying with Toronto. He is not eligible to sign an extension until July, but his being right-handed, the shaky health status of Tanev at 36 years old, and the likely cost of signing a primarily defensive defenseman to a long-term deal would make it more opportune for Treliving to trade Ekman-Larsson.
If there is no indication from Carlo’s representatives what an extension would cost, that would sway the Leafs towards dealing him instead, since they have cost-certainty on Ekman-Larsson.
