With a week gone by since the NHL free-agency period opened, it’s been relatively quiet stretch so far in Washington. The biggest news is something that didn’t happen. Former Winnipeg Jets forward Nikolaj Ehlers elected to head to the Carolina Hurricanes instead of the Capitals or other suitors.
This was actually a good thing for the Caps.
Ehlers is a nice player. Nevertheless, this year’s free agent crop was very thin. With the salary cap going up, teams are spending more to keep guys from hitting the open market. In past seasons teams had to make tough decisions as they bumped up against the cap. This year, only a handful of teams are facing having to shed talent to stay compliant.
Ehlers would have created a cap headache
Ehlers agreed to a six-year contract worth $8.5 million AAV. This would have tied him on Washington’s roster for the third-highest player on the team: tied with Pierre-Luc Dubois, and trailing only franchise cornerstones Alex Ovechkin and John Carlson. An Ehlers signing would have also pushed the Capitals into the 10 percent cap overage allowed by the NHL in the offseason. They would have to make a corresponding move before Opening Night to become cap compliant. Additionally, they would have little cap space at the deadline to bulk up for the playoffs.
Carolina had ample cap space to fit Ehlers’ contract. The Canes still have more than $10 million remaining below the ceiling. Conversely, Washington would have had to juggle the roster and neglect other needs.
Ehlers’ 24 goals and 39 assists with Winnipeg last season would have placed him sixth last year in both goals and points on Washington’s roster last year/ Despite him missing 13 games, he likely would have maybe moved up a spot or two even playing a healthy 82-game slate.While he added five goals in eight playoff games, he isn’t really the missing ingredient the Capitals needed in their second-round loss to the Hurricanes.
To be honest, Washington never really seemed to be in the Ehlers derby unless he opted to take a discount to join the Capitals or perhaps stretch out his deal an extra season to lower the AAV. Ultimately, the Caps’ role in his signing served to drive up the price tag for a division rival.
Ehlers’ move did allow the team to keep Anthony Beauvillier, who was the only UFA to sign with the Capitals following the opening of free agency, and just hours after the decision was made. While not quite a bargain as he was last year at his $1.25 million cap hit, his price tag of $2.75 million per season for a player who fit in with Washington’s system is a good depth retention, and one that also allows the Capitals some flexibility over the summer and into next season should they choose to use it.
Beauviller never really found his fit after former Capitals assistant Lane Lambert took over the Islanders, and after stops in Vancouver, Nashville, Chicago and Pittsburgh, he seemed to mix in well with what Spencer Carbery was putting together in Washington.
A major change between this year’s offseason and last year’s is that there’s little question right now if the season began today, the Capitals would likely make the cut line of this year’s playoffs, as even a decent drop off from last year still should get them around 100 points and at least a Wild Card spot. Last year, there was a question if Washington could keep its razor-thin margin, and they did so with gusto, winning the Metropolitan Division handily, and the Eastern Conference doesn’t really seem to be making much of a change so far despite free agency, with a lot of the talent migrating to the West.
Adding Ehlers would have put Washington in a tight cap squeeze, and should the team really want to load up for what could be Ovechkin’s last season, it would have been a lot more problematic adding that size contract to their cap now and less later when the needs of the roster will be more glaring.
Certainly while Washington was happy with the season they had, they could have also opted to keep some of the departed UFAs that left, but in the end, rather than go back to the cap limit with a team that fizzled offensively in the second-round, they are playing the long game with this summer so far and not locking themselves into a tight cap situation for one free agent. Ehlers likely wouldn’t have made the Capitals any more of a Cup contender as they are now, and so really there was no need to commit that much space to one player.
The Capitals certainly aren’t alone in their current off-season quandry, as with the cap going up, less good players are available as they are staying put and the ones that are landed overpriced contracts as teams try to outbid others for limited resources. The trade market was always the way to go this summer with more reasonable cap hits of existing contracts rather than new ones, although it does requireanother team looking to move on from a specific contract – which may take time to have a team decide to move one.
Cap-ology: What’s next for Washington
Per PuckPedia, Washington has $4.125 million in cap space currently available, meaning a sizeable deal brought in free agency on would require a corresponding move. Certainly like last year when the Capitals moved out Darcy Kuemper’s contract to make room in net, they took on Dubois’ deal that made the swap work for both sides.
Certainly of the current roster, Sonny Milano’s future is still in question, although Capitals GM Chris Patrick told reporters he will be ready for training camp in September, although there is a question where he will fit in the team’s roster now that the forward corps is a lot deeper than it was than two seasons ago when he was a regular. His contract that carries a $1.9 million cap hit certainly seems like one that could be used to move or put on injured-reserve, but certainly it’s a move that you don’t want to execute so quickly with the unknowns of injuries and other factors in the coming season.
For the Capitals, however, Ehlers signing elsewhere isn’t the worst thing to happen, as it certainly allows Washington the ability to plan ahead and with the team not likely to miss the postseason next season, they can target a player who they feel can elevate them in a series with the Hurricanes or Florida Panthers – something they will need to do to try and win one more Cup before Ovechkin departs.
Last week, Martin Fehervary signed a seven-year, $42 million extension with the Capitals. Since then, things have been pretty quiet.
