Prediction For Maple Leafs – Panthers

The Toronto Maple Leafs will open the second-round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs against the Florida Panthers at Scotiabank Arena on Monday, hoping for the same success they had in their series victory over the Ottawa Senators, but the Panthers are a more highly evolved version of the Sens, with a Stanley Cup title to their credit, their own Vezina Trophy winning goalie in Sergei Bobrovsky, their own Tkachuk brother in the playoff-hardened Matthew, and a group of rats that make Ridly Greig look like a field mouse.

The question to be answered in this series is whether this current edition of the Maple Leafs can endure the onslaught of the Panthers, who would run their mother through the end boards to get a loose puck. We will briefly break down the two clubs and evaluate what the Leafs have to do to emerge victorious and advance to the Conference Final for the first time in 23 years.

Goaltending

Bobrovsky did not have a particularly strong showing against Tampa Bay, but he did not have to because Andrei Vasilevskiy did his best Andrei Trefilov imitation (trust me, that’s not good). The 36-year-old has been a standout many times in the postseason with Columbus and Florida. The Leafs will start the series with Bobrovsky’s former backup, Anthony Stolarz, but the question revolving around him is whether he can raise his performance level against his former club, and if he has the stamina to play every other night.  

Stolarz did not show any visible signs of fatigue in the Ottawa series, and 2.21 GAA in six games, but he or Joseph Woll (if he comes in relief) will have to match or be better than Bobrovsky for the Leafs to have a chance at advancing.

Advantage – Florida  

Defense

Florida will be without Aaron Ekblad for the beginning of the series due to a two-game suspension, but the former #1 overall pick will be fresh after missing 20 games due to a suspension at the end of the season, and played well against Tampa. The Panthers have a solid top-four after adding Seth Jones, but their depth is not up to par from last season when they had Brandon Montour running the power play, and Oliver Ekman-Larsson on the bottom pairing.

Depth and quality on the blueline for the first time in a long time is on the Leafs side, with Brandon Carlo gelling with Morgan Rielly, Jake McCabe and Chris Tanev being effective as a shutdown pair, and OEL and Simon Benoit chipping in offensively and providing some physicality. Toronto’s defense will have to make it tough on Florida’s forward and keep the front of Stolarz’s net clear.

Advantage – Toronto

Forwards

Toronto has good depth up front and a fourth line that was effective against the Sens, but the Panthers top-six is battle-hardened and has shown up on a consistent basis. The Leafs top-six was excellent against Tampa two years ago and then were effectively shut down by the Panthers in the second round. Florida will attempt to impose their will physically in the series and try to intimidate and pound on the Leafs forwards.

Players like Tkachuk, Sam Bennett, and Brad Marchand will be living rent free in the heads of the Toronto players and they will have to deal with them with pushback and physicality, and not take stupid retaliatory penalties. The series will likely come down to the Leafs core group being able to put points on the board and winning the head-to-head battles against Aleksander Barkov, Sam Reinhart, Tkachuk, and Carter Verhaeghe.

Can the Leafs do that…..Yes. Will they do that???

Advantage – Florida

Special Teams

The Leafs scored six goals with man advantage against Ottawa, but Toronto’s five-forward unit is something that is vulnerable to counterattack, as we saw with Dylan Cozens short-handed goal. Both clubs were excellent on the penalty kill in the first round.    

Advantage – Toronto

Coaching

Paul Maurice and Craig Berube have both won Cups and Berube’s calm under pressure was apparent during the Sens series, when he chose not to emphasize team play to take the onus on the core group and not remove Max Pacioretty.

Advantage – Even

Prediction

The Leafs are fully capable and has the talent to win this series, but they have to prove they have the ability to push back and put the Stanley Cup champions on the defensive.

Panthers in six