Is it getting late early for the Ottawa Senators? The team is currently mired in a four-game losing skid and falling behind in the Eastern Conference playoff race. At the 44-game mark, the Senators sit seven points out of the final Wildcard position. And if they have any design on a top three spot in the Atlantic Division, the Senators trail the third-place Montreal Canadiens by 11 points heading into Monday’s action.
Senators’ Glass Half Full
At first glance making the playoffs in consecutive seasons for the first time since 2011-12, 2013 doesn’t seem like a monumental task. Last season the Senators broke a seven-year postseason drought, earning the number one Wildcard seed, finishing the 2024-25 campaign at 97 points. After 44 games last season the club possessed a 22-18-4 record for 46 points and were only one point out of a Wildcard position. As of this morning, the Senators hold a 20-19-5 (44 points), two points fewer at the same juncture, but they advanced to the playoffs comfortably, going 25-11-2 the remainder of the way.
Senators’ Glass Half Empty
At the same point last season the team was one point out of a playoff spot, this season they’re currently seven points out. The Senators must leap seven teams including bumping the number two Wildcard seed to earn a trip to the postseason. Incredibly, all 16 Eastern Conference clubs possess an above .500 record.
Twenty-seven of the Senators remaining 38 games are versus Eastern Conference opponents.
Remaining opponents:
14 games vs. Metropolitan Division
13 games vs. Atlantic Division
11 games vs. Western Conference
With this in mind, in a league of parity where three points are handed out on a nightly basis, the Senators margin of error is relatively small.
Depending which analytic model one follows, the playoff cut-off will be anywhere from 93 to 95 points. To achieve this mark, the Senators need to ride out the season with a record of something similar to 23-10-5 (51 points) or at worst 22-11-5 (49 points), but there are no guarantees the latter will get them to the promised land.
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What Need To Change?
If the Senators are to earn a playoff berth, they need to end their four-game slide Tuesday. The team plays not one, but a pair of back-to-backs scheduled over the next several days. Tuesday the Senators are home to Vancouver and visit the New York Rangers Wednesday. This coming Saturday, the Senators meet the Montreal Canadiens in what’s billed as the 30th Anniversary of their first game played at the Canadian Tire Centre. Their opponent on that January 17, 1996 evening was also the Canadiens. Sunday the team travels to Detroit face the Red Wings.
Desperation, mainly the lack thereof was the buzz word used after Saturday’s 3-2 loss to the injury-riddled Florida Panthers.
Ottawa was 0 for 5 on the power play which was credited with only five shots on goal. In fact, 10 of the club’s 19 shots on goal the entire game came from defensemen. Another seven shot attempts were blocked, and a whopping 25 either missed nets or hit posts.
The Senators were guilty of passing up shooting opportunities and not posting up in the so-called dirty areas. Life was too easy for Panthers netminder Sergei Bobrovsky.
Head coach Travis Green addressed his team’s lack of desperation.
“I thought we lacked a little bit of desperation, just a bit. We see things from a different angle, obviously, shot attempts as well. I thought we locked it like around the net, getting pucks to the net. Our checking game is usually pretty solid. It was again tonight. But there’s another level of desperation that we can play with. And it’s not just defensively, it’s offensively. It’s taking a hit to make a play, beating a check to a net. We had a lot of pucks that we missed in front of the net bear down in those areas, but I just think there’s another level for us, and when you’re not winning, and I talked about this this morning, it’s hard,” Green added.
“When you’re winning, everything comes easy. Everything flows. You feel great, and when you’re not, it’s hard, and that’s when you got to really dig in and play really hard. And I just thought it was sporadical, and they’re (Florida) a hard team to play. Don’t get me wrong. We talk about teams that a lot of teams mimic how that team plays. They have it down pat.”
“It’s frustrating, but you got to be honest with your team. I really liked our game in Utah. Colorado was a hard game. Gets away from us. Fly home. You got to dig in tonight. You got to dig in, whether that’s on shorter shifts, and I’m not talking a wide margin of deseperation,, like it’s 5% a little extra, and then all of a sudden you get a goal inside, you come up with a rebound on an empty net, and you put it away,” said the Senators head coach.
Goaltending has become a major discussion point for the team, especially due to the absence of Linus Ullmark. There’s no timetable for Ullmark’s return after taking a leave of absence December 28.
Leevi Merilainen is shouldering the load, but at 23-years-old. the Finn is still learning his trade at the NHL level.
After a solid few weeks last season. Merilainen hasn’t been able to repeat his performance as of yet.
The Senators rank third league-wide in allowing the fewest shots on goal (25.4 per game). Despite this, the club is 27th in goals against (3.36). The Senators goaltending simply hasn’t been strong enough this season.
Making his first start for Belleville after joining the team on a professional tryout, goalie James Reimer allowed six goals on 28 shots in the “BSens” 6-5 overtime loss to Rochester Sunday.
How the Ottawa Senators right the ship remains to be seen, but with only 38 games to do so, it has to be much sooner than later.
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