There’s a saying in the NHL that the standings on American Thanksgiving go a long way to determine which teams will be in the playoffs. Typically, ater 20 or so games the field begins to separate and if you’re in a playoff spot in late November, you have a very good shot at skating into late April.
However, this year, that notion is going to be seriously challenged, particularly in the Eastern Conference standings.
With a week’s worth of games to go before the holiday, the standings are largely unlike anything we’ve seen this time of year.
Little margin for error in the Eastern standings
All 16 teams are separated by single digits in points, and all but one team is NHL .500 or above after Tuesday’s action. Even stranger is all of the Eastern teams are in or within four points of a playoff spot – and every team in a playoff spot right now is only in the clear by five points or less.
Of the eight teams currently in playoff spots, four of them missed the playoffs last season, including the Detroit Red Wings, who have missed nine consecutive postseasons, and the Pittsburgh Penguins, who were supposed to be in a rebuild and contending for top prospect Gavin McKenna rather than a playoff berth.
Likewise, four teams who are on the outside at the moment were in the playoffs last season, including the defending Stanley Cup champion Florida Panthers, last year’s top seed the Washington Capitals and the Toronto Maple Leafs who lead the NHL’s longest consecutive playoff berths list with nine would miss postseason if the season ended today.
So, just what is going on this year to make the standings after roughly 20 games as tight as you may see at Canadian Thanksgiving?
Underachievers and overachievers
A combination of teams that were expected to struggle overperforming and teams that were expected to contend underperforming have been a big part, and teams in large part have been avoiding losing skids in the last 10 games. Only one team has won more than seven of their last 10 games, and no one has lost more than three in that same stretch (with teams collecting at least a point in half their last 10.
Leading the list of surprise team is the Penguins, who have adjusted well to new coach Dan Muse and playing a system that has them third in the Eastern Conference and second in goal differential with a plus-12, including being second-best in the conference defensively. While many expected a rebuild in the Steel City, so far the Pens have been competitive and responsible in their own end, which is something that hasn’t been seen from the flightless seabirds since their Stanley Cup days.
The New York Islanders are right behind the Pens in the standings, boosted by top pick Matthew Schaefer, and playing a different system with a change in leadership, willing to take more chances offensively and entrusting their goaltending tandem to make saves than in the past. New York is fourth in the Eastern Conference in goals, which is certainly an unusual stat with the team playing more open than they have since Doug Weight was the coach.
Carolina and New Jersey atop the standings
And, as it is, those two surprise clubs are just two points clear of the cut line despite their recent success.
The Carolina Hurricanes and New Jersey Devils are the top two in the East with a relatively robust 27 points, but even that total is just a three-or-four-game losing skid away from being in danger of going below the cut line. Only six teams in the East, including the ‘Canes and Devils, have a positive goal differential, which is a good barometer of playoff contention, but despite that stat, and two of those teams with more goals than allowed are currently out of playoff spots.
Among those are the Capitals, who have allowed just a conference-best 49 goals, but currently sit in 14th place, tied with the Leafs with 20 points but as has become the norm lately, ahead on a tiebreaker. Washington, who has been solid at 5-on-5, has been vulnerable on special teams, which leads them to be outside the playoff line – but a win against the Edmonton Oilers tonight would put them equal in points as those tied for a Wild Card spot.
Rangers: Road, sweet road?
The other club with a positive goal differential but not in the Top 8 are the New York Rangers, who have the absolutely bizarre stat of holding an impressive 9-2-1 record on the road, but just 1-7-1 at Madison Square Garden to leave them just outside the playoff pack on a tiebreak. The Blueshirts have been very good away from home, but started the year struggling offensively on home ice, and hasn’t improved much despite being one of the tougher venues for opponents in the league.
Toronto, which held a press conference Tuesday to explain their slow start to the campaign, also are just two back of the cut line, and despite a 8-4-2 mark at home, will need to improve on a 1-5-0 mark away from Scotiabank Centre. Certainly the pressure is on for the Leafs to perform better with the eternal sky-high expectations, but the good news for them is that despite their lousy start is they are well in contention and just five off the Atlantic Division lead despite not holding a playoff berth at the moment.
And while injuries have shredded the two-time Cup champions in Florida, the Panthers still sit just a single point outside the postseason, tied with another team not expected to be in playoff contention, the Philadelphia Flyers.
Buffalo is hanging around
Even the Buffalo Sabres, who hold the longest playoff drought in the NHL, currently sit in last in the East – but just four points off the pace despite being just 1-5-2 outside of Western New York and without a regulation win in November (2-5-0, both wins via overtime or shootout).
Every team in a playoff berth is a short losing skid from falling out of the Top 8, while the also-rans know a win streak of two or three could put them back in a spot. And instead of teams being able to take their foot off the pedal, this season, the standings will be dictated by which teams have been performing as of late.
Even teams that looked like they would fall off the table like the Sabres have been saved by the fact the rest of the conference is bunched together, and largely unable to put together win streaks to create some distance between them and their rivals.
Thanksgiving won’t be enough sample size
Twenty games is usually enough to divide the contenders and pretenders, everyone in the Eastern Conference has shown signs of being both so far. And unlike the Western Conference, which looks like a conference should look like after this stretch, who knows how long the standings remain bunched up into the holidays and perhaps the New Year.
So while in the recent past a team in a playoff berth could enjoy their Thanksgiving dinner knowing they have a good chance at playing beyond 82 games, the Eastern standings figure to shake up a lot with 60-plus games left to decide which teams truly will get to skate for the Cup.
