Last season, the Norris Trophy race was a close one, and the final voting reflected it. For the first time in a while, there were three candidates with great cases for the award. Ultimately, Cale Makar won the award while Zach Werenski and Quinn Hughes were close behind despite making great cases to win it.
Looking ahead, the big three (Makar, Hughes, and Werenski) remain the favorites and are expected to be in the conversation for the Norris. The question is if there’s a sleeper or a defenseman who will burst on the scene to win the award. Werenski surprised everyone last season, so it’s a possibility.
Then again, it seems like this award is the big three’s to lose. With this in mind, it’s important to look at Makar’s case to repeat, Hughes and Werenski’s chances of leapfrogging to the top, and some of the longshots to consider, especially as we prepare to place some future bets (with our much-beloved sponsor).
Cale Makar (+150)
The conversation around Makar must change. Every year, it’s always whether or not he’s the best defenseman in the NHL. The question now is whether he’s the best defenseman of this era and, better yet, one of the greatest of all time. Sure, it’s hard to mention him in the same breath as (takes a sigh first) Bobby Orr or even (takes another sigh) Denis Potvin but he’s putting together a Hall of Fame career and edging himself towards those great.
Makar is once again poised to put together another great season. He’ll take the Colorado Avalanche offense to another level with his great play from the point and be a finalist for the Norris. If he wins the award for a third time, then he’s put into generational territory. Only nine defensemen have won the Norris Trophy three times, with Erik Karlsson being the most recent to accomplish this feat, so Makar would enter the elite tier by doing so again.
What will stop Makar is the tier he’s in. His excellence puts him in the “Connor McDavid tier,” where he could have the best season, but the voters won’t give him the award. Some will call it “Voter fatigue” or, more accurately, the voters are used to his greatness, and Makar won’t win the Norris unless he has a historic season.
Quinn Hughes (+200)
There’s a good case that if Hughes played the full season, he’d end up winning the Norris trophy and doing so for the second season in a row. With 16 goals and 60 assists in 67 games, he was the best value defenseman and made the biggest difference when he was on the ice (he was also remarkable defensively for those who follow those metrics as well).
A full season from Hughes will put him back in the discussion and make him the favorite. The only obstacles are oddly the same ones that held him back last season. The Vancouver Canucks being irrelevant will only hurt his case, as it did last season. Likewise, if Hughes has a great season but doesn’t stand out, it will be hard to give him the award, so with the odds he’s getting, it’s best to look elsewhere.
Zach Werenski (+1700)
Was last season an oddity or a sign that Werenski is here to stay? This season will answer that question. Werenski burst on the scene last season with 23 goals and 59 assists, and willing his team until the end of the season, where they came only a few points shy of a playoff spot. At 27 years old, he looks like one of the best defensemen in the NHL and in the prime of his career.
With the Columbus Blue Jackets on the rise and looking like a playoff team heading into the season, and Werenski continuing to play at a high level, it will be hard to ignore his case. He will be the star player leading this team to the playoffs, and if the Blue Jackets are a great team, the Norris should be his, even if he doesn’t have the best statistical season.
The question is what happens if the Blue Jackets take a step back? Moreover, if last season was an outlier and Werenski regresses, then what? Well, then he doesn’t come close to the Norris Trophy, that’s what. There’s a good chance that happens. However, it’s easier to bet on Werenski being here to stay, making his name an intriguing one in Norris discussions.
The Norris Longshots
There’s a great second tier of defensemen in this league. Outside of the big three, there are a few names to keep in mind that can provide great payouts as well.
- Rasmus Dahlin (+2500) is the name to watch as he’s a great defenseman on an awful Buffalo Sabres team. If they have a resurgence, he’ll be a surprise name to watch in the awards race.
- Evan Bouchard (+3500) is viewed as a McDavid and Leon Draisaitl “merchant,” or someone who isn’t that good since he plays with elite forwards. Bouchard is elite, especially on the offensive end of the ice, and can enter the Norris conversation as well.
- Lane Hutson (+5000) won the Calder Trophy last season. It’s not crazy to see him develop into a Norris-caliber defenseman on a Montreal Canadiens team that is becoming a Cup contender.
- One last name to keep in mind is Jake Sanderson (+9000). He’s one of the elite defensemen in the NHL, and people are starting to take notice as the Ottawa Senators become a great team. It would be a surprise if he takes another big step and wins the Norris.
My Bet: Zach Werenski (+1700)
Werenski is a defenseman who makes a difference in all facets of the game, and the Blue Jackets deployed him as such. Last season proved he’s more than a great player on a bad team or a great player who beats up on terrible opponents to pad the stats. The Four-Nations Faceoff was a great case in point, as he stood out among the star players in the tournament.
This is the season where he can take another step forward after finally figuring everything out last season. If he does, and the Blue Jackets are one of the better teams in the Eastern Conference, the Norris Trophy is his. Better yet, Werenski will provide a great payout as well.
