The goaltending market has shifted dramatically in 2025. Since January, six starting netminders have signed long-term extensions — Logan Thompson in Washington, Karel Vejmelka in Utah, Adin Hill in Vegas, Thatcher Demko in Vancouver, Lukas Dostal in Anaheim, and Dustin Wolf in Calgary. All of those deals reset the market for young starters and established veterans alike. For the Chicago Blackhawks, the focus now turns to Spencer Knight.
At just 24 years old, Knight is the youngest goalie in this group. He has never played more than 40 games in an NHL season, and until last year, he hadn’t been a true starter.
But after a full campaign in Chicago, his next contract looms large. His current deal carries a $4.5M AAV (4.7% of the cap) and expires in 2026.
The question is simple: where does Spencer Knight fit in this new goalie market?
Current Season Snapshot (Contracts, Cap% & Last 2 Years Stats)
Here’s the money-and-box-score baseline, with contract and cap data from CapWages.com, before we layer in EDGE and MoneyPuck.
| Goalie | Contract (AAV / Term) | Cap% 25–26 ($95.5M cap) | 2023–24 Stats | 2024–25 Stats |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Thompson (WSH) | 6 yrs • $5.85M | 6.1% | 25–14–5, 2.70 GAA, .908 SV% | 31–6–6, 2.49 GAA, .910 SV% |
| Karel Vejmelka (UTA) | 5 yrs • $4.75M | 5.0% | 13–19–2, 3.35 GAA, .895 SV% | 26–22–8, 2.58 GAA, .904 SV% |
| Adin Hill (VGK) | 6 yrs • $6.25M | 6.5% | 19–12–2, 2.71 GAA, .909 SV% | 32–13–5, 2.47 GAA, .906 SV% |
| Thatcher Demko (VAN) | 3 yrs • $8.5M | 8.9% | 35–14–2, 2.45 GAA, .917 SV% | 10–8–3, 2.90 GAA, .889 SV% |
| Lukas Dostal (ANA) | 5 yrs • $6.5M | 6.8% | 14–23–4, 3.33 GAA, .902 SV% | 23–23–7, 3.10 GAA, .903 SV% |
| Dustin Wolf (CGY) | 7 yrs • $7.5M (starts 26–27) | N/A (ELC) | N/A AHL | 29–16–8, 2.64 GAA, .910 SV% |
| Spencer Knight (CHI) | 4 yrs • $4.5M (RFA 2026) | 4.7% | N/A AHL | 38 GP • 17–16–3, 2.72 GAA, .902 SV% |
| Goalie | AAV | 25–26 ($95.5M) | 26–27 ($102M) | 27–28 ($110M) | 28–29 ($116M) | 29–30 ($124M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Thompson | $5.85M | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 4.7% |
| Karel Vejmelka | $4.75M | 5.0% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 3.8% |
| Adin Hill | $6.25M | 6.5% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.0% |
| Thatcher Demko | $8.5M | 8.9% | 8.3% | 7.7% | N/A | N/A |
| Lukas Dostal | $6.5M | 6.8% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.2% |
| Dustin Wolf | $7.5M (starts 26–27) | N/A | 7.4% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.0% |
| Spencer Knight | $4.5M (RFA 2026) | 4.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Cap% projections are based on salary data from CapWages.com and our assumptions about the NHL’s rising salary cap
Knight is currently one of the cheapest starters in the league, but the comparables are easy to spot. Thompson locked in at $5.85M, Dostal at $6.5M, and Wolf will hit $7.5M when his extension kicks in for 2026–27.
Demko sits as the high-priced outlier at $8.5M, while Vejmelka remains the budget play at $4.75M.
With the salary cap climbing sharply over the next five years, those deals will all settle into the 6–7% range of team payroll. Knight sits at just 4.7% today.
When his deal expires in 2026, he’ll either rise into that tier — or risk being left behind as the market passes
Performance Beyond the Box Score: NHL EDGE Save% by Shot Distance
NHL EDGE breaks down save percentage by shot quality, giving us a clearer view than just GAA or overall SV%.
| Goalie | High-Danger SV% | League .803 | Percentile | Midrange SV% | League .887 | Percentile | Long-Range SV% | League .970 | Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Thompson (WSH) | .822 | .803 | 76 | .912 | .887 | 90 | .955 | .970 | Below 50th |
| Karel Vejmelka (UTA) | .784 | .803 | Below 50th | .898 | .887 | 64 | .984 | .970 | 86 |
| Adin Hill (VGK) | .803 | .803 | 54 | .897 | .887 | 62 | .978 | .970 | 66 |
| Thatcher Demko (VAN) | .807 | .803 | 58 | .912 | .887 | 86 | .973 | .970 | 56 |
| Lukas Dostal (ANA) | .794 | .803 | Below 50th | .905 | .887 | 78 | .971 | .970 | 52 |
| Dustin Wolf (CGY) | .826 | .803 | 78 | .899 | .887 | 68 | .978 | .970 | 68 |
| Spencer Knight (CHI) | .835 | .803 | 90 | — | .887 | — | — | .970 | — |
Looking at GAA and SV% doesn’t tell the real story for Knight. Chicago’s defense is young, inconsistent, and still developing. What matters more are the advanced metrics that isolate a goalie’s individual impact.
On NHL EDGE, Knight ranked in the 90th percentile for High-Danger Save Percentage (.835 vs league .803).
That puts him in the same conversation as Thompson and Wolf, two of the most efficient young goalies in the league.
His midrange and long-range splits are still incomplete, but if they settle around league average, Knight’s profile begins to resemble that of a legitimate top-10 starter.
MoneyPuck adds another layer. Knight posted 6.45 GSAA and 1.15 WAR last season.
Those numbers don’t touch Thompson’s breakout (19.82 GSAA, 4.33 WAR), but they compare well with Wolf (7.85 / 1.99) and Dostal (8.33 / 2.39). Importantly, Knight delivered a net positive — and at just 24 years old, that trend suggests growth rather than plateau.
For the Blackhawks, that’s exactly what they need to see heading into his contract years.
Advanced Goalie Value: GSAA and WAR (MoneyPuck)
Now let’s move beyond save percentages and look at overall impact — Goals Saved Above Average (GSAA) and Wins Above Replacement (WAR).
| Goalie | GSAA / GSAx | Wins Above Replacement (WAR) |
|---|---|---|
| Logan Thompson (WSH) | 19.82 | 4.33 |
| Adin Hill (VGK) | 10.72 | 2.42 |
| Karel Vejmelka (UTA) | 8.91 | 2.36 |
| Lukas Dostal (ANA) | 8.33 | 2.39 |
| Dustin Wolf (CGY) | 7.85 | 1.99 |
| Spencer Knight (CHI) | 6.45 | 1.15 |
| Thatcher Demko (VAN) | 2.23 | 0.24 |
Thompson dominates this category with 19.82 GSAA and 4.33 WAR — elite starter value at a mid-tier cap hit, and the clearest sign he’s one of the NHL’s most efficient deals.
Hill, Dostal, and Vejmelka form the next tier, each delivering strong positive value and proving they can carry stretches as a No. 1.
Wolf impressed immediately, posting nearly 8 GSAA as a rookie, while Knight’s 6.45 GSAA and 1.15 WAR show progress but also highlight that he’s still chasing the consistency of his peers.
His results are encouraging for a first full season as a starter, but they also explain why his next contract hinges on another step forward.
Demko’s 2.23 GSAA and 0.24 WAR are the red flag — a reminder that even highly paid goalies can swing toward negative value when form dips or injuries creep in.
For Knight, the lesson is clear: to earn that $6.5M–$7M AAV range, he needs to prove he belongs in the Thompson/Dostal/Wolf tier, not the Demko end of the spectrum.
Market Projection Value for Cap Efficiency
When you combine the contracts, cap % projections, EDGE splits, and advanced value, the picture becomes clearer: which goaltenders truly deliver the best bang for their cap hit.
Using salary and contract data from CapWages.com, we can measure efficiency by dividing WAR by cap percentage.
| Goalie | Cap% 25–26 | WAR (2024–25) | WAR ÷ Cap% | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Thompson (WSH) | 6.1% | 4.33 | 0.71 | ???? 1st |
| Lukas Dostal (ANA) | 6.8% | 2.39 | 0.35 | ???? 2nd |
| Karel Vejmelka (UTA) | 5.0% | 2.36 | 0.47 | ???? 3rd |
| Adin Hill (VGK) | 6.5% | 2.42 | 0.37 | 4th |
| Dustin Wolf (CGY) | N/A (ELC this year) | 1.99 | N/A | — |
| Spencer Knight (CHI) | 4.7% | 1.15 | 0.24 | 5th |
| Thatcher Demko (VAN) | 8.9% | 0.24 | 0.03 | 6th |
Of course, raw WAR doesn’t tell the whole story — you have to factor in how much each goalie costs against the salary cap.
Thompson is the clear efficiency king — elite production for just over 6% of Washington’s cap.
Vejmelka benefits from a budget deal, sneaking into the top three, while Dostal and Hill form the middle tier.
Knight lags for now but has room to climb, while Demko is the least efficient of the group.
- Floor: $5.5M AAV, if he stalls or stays in the Vejmelka range.
- Likely Range: $6.5M × 6 years, similar to Dostal, right in the 6–7% cap range.
- Ceiling: $7M+ AAV, if Knight continues to post elite high-danger numbers and climbs into double-digit GSAA territory.
Prediction and Final Thought
This is a pivotal year for Spencer Knight and the Blackhawks. He’s not yet a proven 50-game starter, but his advanced profile points toward a goalie who can be.
If he can sustain his elite high-danger play and push his GSAA and WAR into the Wolf/Dostal tier, he’ll be paid like Chicago’s goaltender of the future.
The Blackhawks have the cap space to make that commitment when the time comes. The only question left is whether Knight will prove he deserves it.
Data Sources: Contract and salary data from CapWages.com. Advanced metrics from NHL EDGE and MoneyPuck.
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