The NHL returned from the break this weekend, and it created a weird week. There were no games until Saturday, and not much has happened in the past two days, certainly not much since last week’s column. It’s why this week is a good one to take a step back and look at the broader picture, which some of the observations do.
The Starting Lineup:
- Auston Matthew concerns: What’s caused his struggles & what is fixable?
- Who will sell in the “second wave” trade deadline?
- NHL Nostalgia: What will we remember from the past quarter-century?
- Charlotte in the Atlantic Division doesn’t work & AHL Notes.
- Quick Hits: ECHL Strike, World Junior & more.
It seems fitting that Auston Matthews goes on a heater this weekend. With all the questions and drama in Toronto, he catches fire and scores a goal while adding three assists. His season hasn’t gotten a lot of coverage, so this is a good time to focus on the down year, down year by Matthews’ standards that is.
Auston Matthews is Struggling & The Big-Picture Concerns Are Worrysome
Matthews was a point-per-game player in his second season in the NHL and has kept up that pace since. His 69-goal season in 2022-23 was a sign that he was entering his prime, and he would only improve from there. Yet, this season, he has only 15 goals and 11 assists in 33 games, which, by his standards, is a disappointment.
It’s not one issue that’s caused the drop. Instead, like a perfect storm, everything is hitting Matthews at once, and for a player known for being a difference-maker, he’s been a good but not great part of the top six. There are a few things to consider when looking at how Matthews went from the unquestioned star of the Maple Leafs to part of their core, which this season is led by him, William Nylander, John Tavares, and a rising Matthew Knies.
Matthews Still Hasn’t Fully Recovered Last Season’s Injury
The underlying question is whether Matthews ever recovered from the injury last season. He went overseas to have surgery but he hasn’t been the same since, and with the added injuries piled on, it’s starting to take a toll on a player who ideally is entering his prime years. Matthews is 28 years old, yet he hasn’t looked the same since the injury.
Dive Deeper: Will Savard Firing Shake Up Leafs?
One of the reports last season was that this injury, specifically, the shoulder issues, would be a lingering and recurring one. For Matthews, someone who has relied on his shot throughout his career, that injury can go a long way in hindering his scoring ability.
Matthews is back in the lineup but it’s an 80% version of him. It shows when the Maple Leafs are getting a fraction of the production that they’ve gotten from him in previous seasons. If the injury is a lingering issue, the Maple Leafs can be patient with him, knowing he’ll return to form later in his career.
Matthews Misses Marner
This is the easy thing to point to. After all, Matthews and Mitch Marner have been on the same line for years, and this is the first season without them playing together. Matthews has always had that elite playmaker on his wing, providing him with open looks, and this season, the Maple Leafs have struggled to find one, certainly one as good as Marner.
This was the price the Maple Leafs had to pay when Marner left in the offseason. They relied on the Core Four to the point where they forgot what life looked like beforehand. Marner, for all his struggles in the playoffs, was a vital part of their success and a key for Matthews. With him gone, the Maple Leafs have taken a step back, and more notably, Matthews isn’t finding the same opportunities.
The Coaching Staff Isn’t Helping
Craig Berube’s coaching style limits offense while focusing on defense. When he was hired, it became clear the direction the Maple Leafs were taking, and the Chris Tanev and Oliver Ekman-Larsson signings were reflective of an urge to strengthen the defense.
The big idea was that the Maple Leafs would be prepared for playoff hockey. Last season, Berube’s system helped them win the Atlantic Division and push the Florida Panthers to seven games in the Second Round. Even without Marner, the Berube system, where the Maple Leafs would focus on two-way play at the cost of great offense, would pay off.
The problem is that it hasn’t worked out. The Maple Leafs, like Matthews, have taken a step back, and it’s put Berube in the spotlight for the wrong reasons. They’ve played poorly, and to make matters worse, Matthews isn’t put in situations to succeed.
When thinking about Matthews and his career, this is a fixable issue. The Maple Leafs can always hire a coach who focuses on offense and unlocks Matthews. The big name out there is Pete DeBoer but there are plenty of offensive-minded coaches out there who want to take that route. The question is whether the Maple Leafs want to take that route? Under Sheldon Keefe, they had teams that ran up the score during the regular season and had high-octane offenses but they’d come up short in the playoffs, and for this team, the big picture is to have a team best suited to win in the playoffs.
How Matthews Turns Things Around
The last two games are a positive sign. More importantly, they provide a blueprint to help Matthews. He scored a goal and added two assists in the win over the Ottawa Senators and added an assist in the 3-2 overtime loss to the Detroit Red Wings. Two of his assists came on the power play, which is led by a new power play coach, Steve Sullivan, who has put Matthews in more situations to succeed.
Matthews needs to be in those situations, and so far, he hasn’t been put in them. A telling stat from NHL Edge is that he’s spending 41.6% of the time in the defensive zone while only 41.3% of his time in the offensive zone, both of which are below league average. Some of that comes from being a slower team that’s hemmed in their zone, something a scout noted about the Maple Leafs earlier in the season. That said, zone starts are something coaches can manage, especially when they can manage lines during the stoppages, and it’s something Berube must use correctly to get the most out of Matthews and turn the team’s season around as well.
What Will The “Second Wave” Trade Deadline Look Like?
Before the season began, many predicted the Boston Bruins, Chicago Blackhawks, and Pittsburgh Penguins to be at the bottom of the standings. For two months, all three teams were overachieving and looked like borderline playoff teams. Now, we’re right where we started from with all three teams at the bottom of the standings.
All three teams are fascinating since they can suddenly sell at the trade deadline or even beforehand. They have some big pieces to move as well, and the Cup contenders will spend big to land them. The biggest name, of course, is Sidney Crosby, who wanted to stick around for the Penguins’ rebuild and keep them competitive but as they struggle, he is the one everyone will watch. There’s a good chance Crosby isn’t traded but Pavel Zacha, Erik Karlsson, and Connor Murphy could all be on the move.
These three teams are part of the seller’s market but the second wave of trades is coming. Specifically, this time between roster freezes is when a few big names could be traded, especially since a lot of teams will want to get their work done before the All-Star Break and the Olympics.
5 Trades That Can Happen in This “Second Wave”
Steven Stamkos to the Tampa Bay Lightning
Most hockey fans probably want to will this one into existence. Steven Stamkos hasn’t fit in with the Nashville Predators and hasn’t been the same since leaving the Lightning. Stamkos has a no-trade clause, and if he’s traded, he can choose where he wants to go. Presumably, the Lightning are one team he’ll want to play for, the team he captained to two Stanley Cup titles earlier in the decade.
The issue with this trade, and any Stamkos trade, is the contract, which still has two and a half years remaining with an $8 million average annual value. Even with a rising cap in future seasons, this is a hard contract to take on, and the Lightning would have to move pieces around ot make it work. That said, if there’s any team that can make a move for him and signal that they can keep the contention window open, it’s the Lightning.
Kiefer Sherwood to the Washington Capitals
This trade makes sense for two reasons. The Vancouver Canucks, specifically Jim Rutherford, won’t waste time. When there’s a good offer on the table, he won’t wait, and he’ll be quick to pull the trigger. It was evident with Quinn Hughes and will likely be the case with Kiefer Sherwood. The Washington Capitals will want to make one more Cup run with Alexander Ovechkin, and they need help on their right wing, and a scorer like Sherwood fits the bill.
The Capitals also have the players to make this trade. Rutherford values young NHL-ready players over prospects and draft picks. The Capitals have multiple players who are struggling to find a role on the roster, notably Hendrix Lappiere, who is often a healthy scratch. Lappiere and a few prospects from the farm system might be enough to convince Rutherford to move Sherwood.
Dylan DeMelo to the Detroit Red Wings
Will the Winnipeg Jets become sellers, and what does selling look like for them? It’s been a rough season for them, and one of the few players they can move for a big return is Dylan DeMelo, one of their shutdown defensemen. He can bring back a haul, and the Detroit Red Wings can provide one with a great farm system. The Red Wings need stability on their defense and are eager to make a big trade. This could be the one that signals they are ready for the playoffs.
Casey Middlestadt to the Minnesota Wild
The Minnesota Wild made the trade of the season when they acquired Quinn Hughes. Their time to go all-in is now, and despite the big trade, they still have issues. One of which is center, and if the Wild want to make a playoff run, they must add a center. Casey Middlestadt is one, and having a strong season at that, with eight goals and seven assists in 29 games. He’s not the splash add but the type of player they target, and the player the Bruins would move to help retool.
Jordan Eberle to the Edmonton Oilers
Everyone is circling the wagons on an Alex Tuch to the Edmonton Oilers trade. If that doesn’t happen, Jordan Eberle is the discount version of that move. He’s older and not playing at the same level as Tuch but can still provide scoring on the wing, which the Oilers need. Plus, wouldn’t a full circle moment, where Eberle returns to the team he started his career with, feel good?
NHL Nostalgia: What We’ll Remember From The Past 25 Years
This is a good time of the year to do retrospectives or look back at the past year. It’s a common theme in many newspapers, newsletters, and even sports content. Let’s look back at the past 25 years and some things that stood out about the past quarter-century.
The Crosby-Ovechkin Influence
Sidney Crosby and Alexander Ovechkin have been the stars of the era. It’s hard to ignore the number of big moments they’ve been a part of in the past 25 years. The two stars have been compared and rivaled with their resumes from Hart Trophies to Stanley Cup titles to Gold Medals but in all, they’ve been the faces of hockey for the past two decades.
As both Crosby and Ovechkin start to ride off into the sunset, a new era of stars has taken over. Connor McDavid, Nathan MacKinnon, and Cale Makar are the big names, while the next generation with Connor Bedard, Macklin Celebrini, and Matthew Schaefer is taking shape as well. However, looking back at the era, it will be hard to deny that it was dominated by Crosby and Ovechkin, and fittingly, the era was capped off with Ovechkin breaking Wayne Gretzky’s goal record.
League Parity
Since Gary Bettman took over as commissioner, the NHL has gone through three lockouts, added free agency, and brought in a salary cap. Change isn’t easy, and there were growing pains but in the process, the NHL became a more balanced league.
The salary cap, particularly, has evened the playing field. Sure, the Florida Panthers have won the Cup in back-to-back years, and the Lightning won the Cup two years in a row earlier in the decade but there haven’t been the same dynasties in the NHL like the ones in previous eras.
The Rise, Fall & Resurgence of International Play
There’s nothing like Olympic hockey. The stage, the stakes, and players winning for their countries bring out the best and provide some of the game’s best moments. It’s what happened in the 2010 Olympics when Canada won the Gold Medal thanks to Sidney Crosby’s Golden Goal.
The NHL decided after the 2014 games that they didn’t need the Olympics, and there’s some truth to that. The league and hockey aren’t dependent on the games (unlike some sports that you forget exist until the Olympics provide a reminder). That said, the international stage grows the game more than NHL games and brings in casual hockey fans who otherwise wouldn’t pay much attention.
That was on full display during the Four-Nations Faceoff. The players were eager to return to international competition, and the games not only lived up to the hype but far exceeded it. The two matchups between the USA and Canada did more to grow the game than any NHL games had in the past 25 years.
While there’s some uncertainty about the upcoming Olympics and whether the ice will be up to standards, there’s no questioning the interest. Hockey on the international stage is a must, and the peaks and valleys of the past 25 years were a case in point of that.
Charlotte Doesn’t Belong in the Atlantic Division But Has No Choice
The American Hockey League (AHL) always provides an adventure. This week’s involved snowstorms and travel, which have been a staple of the long, cold wintery months of the AHL season since the league was founded 90 years ago. Because of the snow and travel issues, the Charlotte Checkers couldn’t make it to Lehigh Valley to face the Phantoms. So, the Saturday night game was postponed and instead will take place Monday night.
The Atlantic Division is typically great for travel. Four teams are in the New England region, while another three are in Pennsylvania. Then there’s Charlotte, the one team in the South that doesn’t fit in. They are on an island compared to the rest of the division, and it’s why the road trips for them will often be two weeks while their homestands will feature multiple back-to-backs against the same teams. In short, they are a pain in the neck for the rest of the division.
Charlotte is a popular city, one that the AHL loves. That said, it doesn’t belong, at least not now when it’s isolated from the rest of the league.
The easy fix is if the NHL, and by default, the AHL, expand. It will allow the league to put another team in the area and possibly a third team to the southeast. Then, the Atlantic Division will look a lot like the Atlantic Division in the NHL, which has five teams in the North but two teams in Florida to help with travel.
Eventually, the AHL will look for cities similar to Charlotte. Cities with airport hubs, large populations, and an infrastructure for hockey. Atlanta and Orlando come to mind, and adding one of the two markets will save the AHL some headaches, specifically, for messy division alignments or outliers in a specific division.
Other AHL Notes
Because of the postponed game, yours truly had to pivot on the fly and covered the game in Wilkes-Barre Scranton against the Hershey Bears. The Bears are starting to make progress but are a tier below the Penguins, and it shows in their play.
The Penguins won the game 5-2 and earned points in both of their games over the weekend. They are playing great across the board and look like the best team in the Atlantic Division.
But being the best in the Atlantic is small potatoes to the type of season the Grand Rapids Griffins are putting together. They won their 26th game this weekend and have a 20-point cushion in the Central Division. They aren’t just great; the Griffins are lapping the field with only two losses all season.
The Phantoms had a comeback win on Sunday, where they battled back from a 2-0 deficit to win 4-3 in a shootout. It’s the sixth time the Phantoms have gone to the shootout this season, and at this point, they’ve become veterans of it. One thing that stands out is John Snowden’s approach when the shootout begins, as he elects to go first and then rely on the goaltender to make the save second. “It gets us up early, and now it’s on them to catch up to us,” he noted after the recent win. Like winning the coin toss in football, it’s subjective whether accepting or differing is best but this strategy has helped Snowden, as the team is 4-2 in the shootout and has won three in a row.
Quick Hits: ECHL Strike, World Juniors & More
The ECHL strike started last week and escalated into a heated dispute over the subsequent days. It forced teams to postpone the games for the previous weekend, and for many players, they had to figure out where their next paycheck and where their housing would come from.
Fortunately, it looks like both sides have come to an agreement since these strikes benefit no one. Hershey Bears head coach Derek King echoed this sentiment when asked about the strike, “I’ve been through a lockout, I’ve been through some strikes, and nothing good comes out of it. I just hope they can resolve it.”
For many hockey fans, it’s hard to care about the ECHL. It’s not just minor league hockey but it’s the league below the minors. Players rarely, if ever, make it from the ECHL to the NHL. The thing about the ECHL, that most fans don’t notice, is that it is a league, and like many minor leagues, it has fans of those teams. The fans of those teams have supported them through all the hard times and will support them in the future. They deserve better than the strike, and fortunately, the teams are returning to action for the New Year’s Eve games.
- The World Juniors began this week, and it’s a good time to check in on some of the top prospects and overreact to a good shift or a bad game or anything else in this short sample size.
- For example, Chase Reid scored in the opening game for the USA, and the instant comparison is Evan Bouchard. The scoring from the point is similar, although many draft experts have noted that he’s better defensively, making a Zach Werenski comp more accurate.
- Another prospect who has stood out is Viggo Bjork. The Swedish center has plenty of skill and is putting it on display in recent days, including a few highlight moments.
- Sweden is off to a great start in general. They had a comeback win on Sunday, which featured a Bjorck goal, and their win over Slovakia featured big moments from Anton Frondell, the third overall pick in the 2025 draft, and Ivar Stenberg, another name many are keeping an eye on ahead of the 2026 draft.
- In two games, Gavin McKenna has four assists. So, everyone can take a sigh of relief since he’s still an elite top-of-the-draft talent who is thriving on a star-studded Canada team.
