This week, in a casual conversation with one of the scouts on the road, I was asked, “So, who do you got winning it all?” a classic question for any hockey fan. The irony is that my preseason prediction still feels correct, even with all the twists and turns that come in the NHL season. The pick was the Colorado Avalanche, which makes sense, and the Florida Panthers, who, aside from their 6-2 loss to the St. Louis Blues, are back in the playoff picture and look like the team that won back-to-back titles and can win another. The Panthers headline this last column before the holiday break.
The Starting Lineup:
- The Panthers are back. Let’s look at how they got there.
- The Kraken are a mess beyond their off-the-ice issues.
- Holiday break buy or sell teams.
- A deep dive into Lehigh Valley’s offensive collapse & AHL Notes.
- Quick Hits: Holiday break thoughts & more.
The comeback win over the Carolina Hurricanes, where the Panthers trailed 3-0 and won 4-3 in a shootout, says a lot about them being back to form. The “Comeback Cats’ were a staple of their ability to claw back and win games, and they’ve now won four of their last five. So, let’s do a deep dive on their resurgence.
A Closer Look at the Panthers Resurgence
The Panthers were in last place in the Eastern Conference at the start of the month, albeit in a bunched-up conference. Only a few points separated them from the top teams. With seven wins in their last nine games, they are only a few points out of the top spot in the Atlantic Division. What’s fascinating is how this version of the Panthers is winning games because it’s not the same group.
They are without Aleksander Barkov and Matthew Tkachuk, two core players and arguably the most integral to their recent success. The Panthers are known for having a shutdown defense, but have struggled in their end. They’ve allowed 3.08 goals per game while failing to find replacements for Dmitry Kulikov, who is also hurt, and Nate Schmidt, who left in free agency. Yet, they keep winning games. There are a few things that stand out about this version of the Panthers. They are proving why they look like a modern dynasty in the making.
The Overlooked Stars Are Finally Getting Their Time to Shine
The player hockey fans knew but didn’t know well was Anton Lundell. He was the third-line center who stood out in the playoffs and gave the Panthers favorable matchups. He was always seen as a depth center but not a star, until this season. He’s centering a top-six line and occasionally the top line with Barkov out and is having a career year.
One scout noted that he’s like Barkov but younger and is maturing into the next version of him. It’s hard to compare any player to the perennial Selke Trophy winner but the parallels are uncanny. Both centers are from Finland, play a two-way game, and make the other skaters on their lines better. Lundell, at 24 years old, is starting to take that leap, with 11 goals and 16 assists in 35 games.
Lundell is the key player filling the Barkov void but the Panthers have other forwards stepping up to carry this team as well. Brad Marchand is turning back the clock at 37, with 20 goals and 19 assists in 37 games while Sam Reinhart is not only generating offense but also continuously finding the back of the net, with 18 goals in 34 games.
Throw in Sam Bennett and his recent resurgence, plus Carter Verhaeghe, and the Panthers have a good enough top six to still win games. It leads to the next key in their great season. –
The Forward Unit Covers Up Other Issues
There are different philosophies to team building. One is to build from the net out. Another is having a core with star players at every position. The Panthers built their team from the forward unit out with Barkov, Tkachuk, and four great forward lines leading them.
The forwards cover up the other issues with their roster. The defense doesn’t have an elite two-way talent and sometimes struggles on the second or third pair (although it’s worth noting that Gustav Forsling is one of the NHL’s best stay-at-home defensemen). With a forward group that comes at teams in waves while also forechecking, defending, and playing any type of game, it doesn’t matter.
This season in particular, it’s allowed them to stay competitive. The third line from the recent playoff run, which had Lundell, Marchand, and Eetu Luostarainen, is still making a difference, just higher up in the lineup. Having a forward unit built like this allows them to have the next-man-up mentality every team preaches but few can execute.
Bobrovsky is Inconsistent, in a Good Way
Sergei Bobrovsky is not having a great season, at least based on the numbers. His .888 save percentage (SV%) and -6.2 goals saved above average (GSAA) are ranked near the bottom of the league. For every 30-save one-goal performance, there’s a game where he allows five or six goals.
That’s not how fans or the hockey world should measure Bobrovsky’s play. The thing that stands out with him is something old-school hockey fans like. It’s the wins. He leads the league with 15 but in the bigger picture, when the Panthers need him to make a big save or to steal a game, he can and does. It’s why he’s established himself as the best goaltender in the playoffs in recent seasons. When the Panthers need him in a must-win game, there isn’t a better goaltender in the game.
And at 36 years old, he’s still delivering when it matters most. It’s why he might get a big contract this offseason as he heads to free agency (yes, he’s old but a team will offer him a lot knowing what he can do in the playoffs). He was playing at a high level in the recent stretch, and it’s allowed the Panthers to not only win games but beat some of the best teams in the NHL, including the Dallas Stars, Tampa Bay Lightning, and Hurricanes.
The Panthers & The Game
The late Ken Dryden’s book The Game is a must-read for hockey fans. It’s a book that will make any hockey fan, from avid to casual, smarter. One of the themes in that book is the day-to-day grind, and for the Montreal Canadiens, it’s finding that drive and motivation to win, even in the rough stretches of the season and even after they’ve won it all.
The Canadiens won five titles in a row, and by the fifth one, they knew the regular season games didn’t matter, and the grind wasn’t the same. The Panthers are going through the same thing to a lesser degree. They know the games in December don’t matter as long as they can make it to the playoffs.
It’s why the early-season struggles were easy to shrug off. The Panthers know that a loss on a given night doesn’t matter but added up, they start to make an impact. The recent stretch is where they flipped the switch, where the veterans who know what it takes are starting to take over games. Bobrovsky, who knows how to shut down an opponent, starts doing so. In a season that is a marathon with a sprint at the end, the Panthers are warming up for that grind that is needed to win, and it shows with their recent play.
And don’t put it past general manager (GM) Bill Zito to make a big move either. Last season, he acquired Seth Jones to fix the defense and then made the last-second move to add Marchand. This time around, the Panthers will need a depth defenseman, and there will be plenty to target. It wouldn’t surprise anyone if Zito makes a minor trade or two and possibly a splash to allow the Panthers to be in peak form at the right time, which is for a run at a third Cup title in a row, something that hasn’t happened since the New York Islanders in the 1980s.
The Kraken are Broken, What’s The Fix?
The Seattle Kraken have become one of the forgettable teams out west. For most Eastern Time fans, they are one of the teams that go unnoticed until a trade or something odd puts them in the news. Like this week, where the Kraken were in the spotlight for their media availability fiasco.
For those who didn’t notice (or care), they had head coach Lane Lambert available to the local media but he only took questions from a team reporter in what looked like a bizarre stage public relations move. The team has since announced it was an error that won’t happen again but imagine for a second if this happened in Montreal, Toronto, or any big hockey market (people would be fired, fined, or both).
The Kraken were playing above their weight earlier in the season, managing to stay in a playoff spot through two months. Aside from their 4-2 win over the San Jose Sharks on Saturday night, they’ve been a mess. They only have two wins in December and have lost 10 of their last 12 to fall into last place in the Pacific Division.
There are some short-term problems playing a role in their collapse. Yet, the bigger picture issues have turned them into a disaster with no path out. The best-case scenario was a playoff berth, and now it looks like that wouldn’t help them in the long run.
The Lack of Elite Talent Has Always Set The Kraken Back
One Pacific Division writer noted that they lack high-end talent. The leading scorer in both goals and points is Jordan Eberle, a 35-year-old winger with 10 goals and 20 assists. On a contending team, Eberle is playing on the second or third line but with the Kraken, he’s asked to lead them.
This has been a problem since their first season, or technically before that. In the expansion draft, the Kraken drafted a lot of good but not great veterans. Some of this can’t be blamed on them since the other teams protected their best player,s and they couldn’t hit the lottery the way the Vegas Golden Knights did a few years before them (with Marc-Andre Fleury and Jonathan Marchessault). However, the draft misses or prospects they’ve struggled to develop are their fault.
Their first draft saw them land the second overall pick, where they selected Matthew Beniers. The forward had plenty of talent coming out of the 2021 draft but the Kraken failed to develop him. Fast forward to this season and his ice time is up to 20 minutes a game, and he only has four goals and 14 assists in 33 games to show for it.
Then there was the Shane Wright selection in the 2022 draft. The Kraken had the fourth pick in that draft and took the best player on the board, or so they thought (to be fair, everyone thought Wright was the top prospect until the process took place and teams started questioning his upside). This pick stings in part because Wright has yet to develop into the two-way center they hoped they were getting. What stings more is that Cutter Gauthier was taken with the next pick and is a rising star and great scorer, something the Kraken can use at the moment.
The Beniers and Wright picks weren’t busts. They didn’t flop entirely. However, the Kraken had two chances with top-five picks to land elite talent and failed to do so. It’s set them back from the start.
Kraken Front Office Issues
The Kraken were seen as a forward-thinking and analytically driven team when they were founded. It’s easy to turn the analytics into a punching bag for their shortcomings. That wasn’t their problem. However, it’s one branch for a team that has too many.
Simply put, the Kraken have too many cooks in the kitchen. They have a president who was the GM in Ron Francis, plus, they brought in Jason Botterill as the GM. On top of that, they have three assistant GMs and multiple data analysts. They have too many voices and not one person in charge with a clear vision or direction for the team. It helps explain why the Kraken don’t have much of an identity on the ice. It’s hard to pinpoint what they are good at aside from goaltending, which, to be blunt, is Joey Daccord.
Can A Kraken Collapse Be The Best Thing For Them?
In some ways, a terrible season might be what the Kraken need. Like the San Jose Sharks a few years back, it will lead to a few things.
It will force them to tear down the roster and move on from the veterans while entering a rebuild. There also might be a teardown of the front office, or at least they restructure it where there is one person in charge, the unquestioned GM making the moves. Then, there’s a good chance they end up with a top draft pick and land a generational talent who leads them to contention.
The Kraken have 32 standing points at the time of this typing. That’s tied with the Chicago Blackhawks for fewest in the NHL. So, maybe the race to the bottom is on, and since they don’t have Connor Bedard, they have the edge.
Holiday Break: Buy or Sell on Western Conference Strugglers?
Some like to look at (American) Thanksgiving as a benchmark, where the teams that are in the playoffs then will probably be in the playoffs by the end of the season. Since there were so many teams clustered together in the standings, it wasn’t applicable this season. So, the next benchmark is the holiday/Christmas break, which begins after Tuesday night’s slate of games.
There are still a bunch of teams bunched up, where seven points separate the last-place teams and the wild cards in both conferences. That said, some teams are starting to look like sellers. Let’s look at the seven worst teams in the Western Conference, who have a point percentage under .500, and see where they stand.
Seattle Kraken – The Mason Marchment trade before the freeze is an indication that they are early sellers, and more is probably on the way.
Chicago Blackhawks – Unless Connor Bedard, who is out until at least January, comes back and leads a playoff push, this team will probably sell as they wait for the next wave of prospects to join their team next season.
Calgary Flames – Their recent hot streak, where they’ve won six of eight, is a pleasant sight. That said, the Flames still look like sellers and have some of the big names to watch, notably Nazem Kadri and Rasmus Andersson.
Vancouver Canucks – Ironically, they haven’t stopped winning since the Quinn Hughes trade. The reality is that it’s a sign that more trades are coming, and with Jim Rutherford running the team, expect the moves to happen sooner rather than later. He has some big names to trade as well, so the hockey world will keep a close eye on the Canucks.
Nashville Predators – Another team on a hot streak, with two wins in a row and seven in their last 10 games. Don’t let the recent play fool you. The Predators need a reset and will go through one, especially if they find a team willing to take on the Steven Stamkos contract.
St. Louis Blues – The problem the Blues have is that they don’t have a lot of players to trade. Specifically, they don’t have a player they can move who can bring back a significant return. That is, unless they find a way to trade Jordan Binnington, which can be a discussion in itself.
Winnipeg Jets – Even with Connor Hellebuyck back, the recent stretch has shown that it’s not the Jets’ year. As mentioned in a previous column, the Jets are in a tough spot and can’t make a lot of trades or even retool if they wanted. So, it will be interesting to see how things play out for them.
How The Lehigh Valley Offense Became a League Worst & AHL Notes
The Lehigh Valley Phantoms were led by a potent offense at the start of the season, averaging 3.31 goals per game through 16 games. To say it’s fallen apart would be an understatement. Since December, the Phantoms have only scored 12 goals in eight games. They’ve only scored five goals in their last five games.
The recent stretch exposed the Phantoms for what they are, which is a one-line team. Denver Barkey, Lane Pederson, and Alex Bump carried the offense. With Barkey getting called up to the NHL and Bump missing time with an injury, the Phantoms have no answers. But the problems began before the call-ups and injuries.
They started in December, when teams, especially young players, hit a wall. The Phantoms are led on offense by their young talent but many of their skaters aren’t used to the AHL and the grind that is a full season. Head coach John Snowden discussed this after the Wednesday night 3-1 loss to the Springfield Thunderbirds. Bump is in his rookie season and spent his previous season in college, where the practices are intense but the games are minimal, as they play 30 in a season compared to the 72-game marathon that is an AHL regular season. While Barkey and the other players from a junior hockey background played in more games, they were far less intense. The games caught up to a young team, and the offense struggled because of it.
Another interesting note is how the Phantoms operate their offense. They move the puck well and look for interior shots. Their issue is that the interior shots are coming from the high slot compared to the dirty areas. The Phantoms haven’t had a finisher near the crease all season, and now it’s on display.
There’s also a disconnect between the analytics and the in-game results. Snowden mentioned the data and the film multiple times in the postgame media and talked about how the plays are set up to provide scoring chances but the Phantoms aren’t getting the results because the shots aren’t hard enough, and they aren’t getting the rebound either. It’s something Pederson also mentioned in his availability on Saturday night, stating, “They provide us the analytics, and I think we’re generating plenty.”
This data and the use of it make a Vince Lombardi quote relevant: “The plays work of the chalkboard but the men make it work on the field.” Snowden can draw up scoring chances, and they can work through them in practice but it won’t matter if the Phantoms skaters don’t generate effective shots or execute the plays, and that’s what’s happening with them as of late.
It’s also not a coincidence that the drop offensively happened the same time that Christian Kyrou stopped producing. He was acquired earlier in the season and became a glue player for the offense as a playmaker at the point who opened things up. He’s still playing well but playing less and not making the same impact. It’s the price the Phantoms must pay as they insert Oliver Bonk back into the lineup, taking away ice time from Kyrou. Bonk is starting to find his footing with the team as well, and with the forwards struggling, it’s pivotal that the Phantoms get both going if they plan on scoring and, more importantly, winning games.
The bottom line is that multiple factors led to the offensive collapse. The question now, with the team on a six-day break, is how they address the issues. The good news is that Snowden will have time to mix up the lines, lean on the veterans, ask the blue line to drive play, or find a combination of all the above-mentioned to get the offense back to form.
Other AHL Notes
The Bridgeport Islanders beat the Phantoms 5-1 on Dec. 19 before losing 4-1 the next night. Their win over the Phantoms was a reminder of the value a player like Chris Terry adds in this league. He’s 37 yet a veteran presence who does wonders mentoring younger players.
Terry’s particularly helped out Matthew Maggio this season. He plays on the same line to unlock Maggio’s skill but is also molding him into a potential fourth-line center for the NHL team. In an interview with Terry last season, he talked about being in the same shoes as the prospects back in the day and understanding the highs and lows that come with playing the AHL. That experience helped turn a prospect, who looked lost last season, into a top player for Bridgeport, with a team-leading 19 points.
The Belleville Senators fired their head coach, David Bell, earlier in the week. It’s a change that had to happen, considering how the team was playing and where they were in the standings. Like the Utica Comets last season, they had to make a change before the season spiraled out of control. The other layer to the Bell firing is that he wasn’t ideal for a development league, and the Senators will look to bring in someone who is, and not just an interim who becomes the full-time coach.
Many will look at the Bell firing and wonder if more are on the way. The Senators, while bad, are not the worst team in the AHL. However, the other struggling teams are waiting things out and will probably make their big changes in the offseason, notably the Hartford Wolf Pack and the Springfield Thunderbirds, two struggling teams with second-year coaches behind the bench.
The three-in-threes were once a common occurrence in the AHL, where teams would play on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. Now, they are a rarity. The Wilkes-Barre Scranton Penguins experienced their first loss of the season this weekend. After their Sunday afternoon game against the Hershey Bears, a game where they looked slow at first but ended up with a 3-1 win, their head coach, Kirk MacDonald, noted that the preparation hadn’t changed and they were ready for it (having Sergei Murashov in net helped).
Speaking of Murashov, Derek King noted after the game that when a team knows they are facing an elite goaltender like him that it gets frustrating. They tried to create chaos in front of the net to beat Murashov (a deflected puck ended up being their only goal). Murashov noted that this league is more chaotic and there’s less structure, and it’s how teams, most of which have more flaws, try to find offense.
Two of the games in Allentown this week had a scout for the officials in the press box. That was cool but more importantly, a reminder that everyone in the AHL is amateur, developing, and being evaluated. There were mistakes and missed calls in the game but it’s expected.
The interesting takeaway from the conversation with the referee scout was how hockey is officiated. The refs don’t call every penalty and will let a few calls slide in part because they can’t have a game filled with whistles. If the refs called everything, the games would be four hours long. The analogy is driving five miles per hour above the speed limit (or even 10 on a highway). The police might pull over one person to send the message to the other drivers but they won’t pull over everyone.
Quick Hits: Holiday Break & More
The last slate of NHL action before the break is Tuesday. So, there will be a few days without hockey before everyone is back in action for the weekend. For those still looking for a hockey fix, the World Juniors begin this week, so it’s a fun time to get a peek at the top prospects and the future of hockey.
- Morgan Geekie scored his 25th goal of the season on Saturday night. While Nathan MacKinnon leads the league with 28, Geekie is right behind him and is becoming one of the best stories of the season.
- Right before the roster freeze, the Montreal Canadiens acquired Phillip Danault from the Los Angeles Kings. The Canadiens needed center help, and Danault is a great fit on their third line (plus, he’s a fan favorite). The question is whether this was the big move the Canadiens needed or if they are just getting warmed up. Presumably, it’s the latter, considering they have the prospects to make a big move and are willing to trade them at this point.
- The Hurricanes blew a 3-0 lead in back-to-back games. This team doesn’t blow leads or lose games like that often, if at all. The losses aren’t worth an overreaction but will have fans wondering whether the Hurricanes have concerns either on defense or in the net (their goaltending looks great now but always seems to be an issue come playoff time).
- The Maple Leafs are coming off a 5-1 loss to the Dallas Stars. In a vacuum, that’s not a bad loss since the Stars are a juggernaut and beat teams by those scores all the time. The Maple Leafs aren’t losing games in a vacuum. They lost to the Nashville Predators the night before and were shut out by the Washington Capitals before that. Rough stretches like these have everyone on high alert, which means a coaching change might happen by the time you read this.
- The Tristan Jarry injury is a tough blow for the Oilers, who made the big move to get him. His injury forced them to call up Connor Ingram, who started the Sunday night win against the Vegas Golden Knights, which was a great moment considering the mountain Ingram had to climb to get back to the NHL.
