This week, two big themes came to mind in the NHL. One is that the future is now. It’s something we’ve heard and witnessed all season with the brilliance of young players taking over the NHL. Then, Alexander Ovechkin goes on a heater, scoring seven goals in six games (including number 900) to prove that the old players in this game still have it.
Age is the theme of this week’s column, with both the young and old standing out.
The Starting Lineup:
- A scoring chase between Bedard, Carlsson & Celebrini is a big boost to grow the game.
- 40 is the new 30.
- Which teams are in trouble heading into Thanksgiving?
- AHL notes: Phantoms, Providence & More
- Quick Hits: Can defense win championships, injuries battering contenders & more.
So, let’s start with the next wave of young talent, three skaters who are making great cases for their Olympic teams and are the storyline in the NHL so far.
1. Can The Scoring Chase Have a Historic Impact on the NHL?
There’s a fascination that comes with a scoring chase. In 2023-24, Auston Matthews came one goal shy of the 70 mark, and fans everywhere wondered if he’s become the first of this era to reach that mark. Ovechkin passing Wayne Gretzky’s goal-scoring record was arguably the most iconic moment of the decade (it’s certainly up there). Hockey is a team sport, yet individual achievement draws in the casual fans, certain ones that shatter records or hit milestones.
In baseball, a home run chase does wonders for the popularity, even among casual sports fans. It started when Babe Ruth hit an unprecedented 60 home runs in 1927. Then there was the Mickey Mantle and Roger Maris chase in 1961, with both teammates trading home runs all summer until Maris pulled away and ultimately established the new record with 61 dingers. The summer of 1998 is regarded as one of the best in baseball because of the Mark McGwire, Sammy Sosa chase.
The 1998 chase (and the ones since) are noteworthy since they came on TV and, more specifically, the SportsCenter era. Fans would watch ESPN every night with anticipation, hoping to find out whether McGwire or Sosa hit one or more (before that, it was all about grabbing the morning newspaper).
This tangent is to say that hockey can have a boom in attention and viewership with a scoring chase this season, even without the ESPN coverage. The young trio of Connor Bedard, Leo Carlsson, and Macklin Celebrini is providing one, and their great play every night has hockey fans checking NHL Network or social media to see if any of them has a highlight play and led their teams to victory.
The top five as of Sunday night look like this.
- Nathan MacKinnon (37 points)
- Macklin Celebrini (34 points)
- Connor McDavid (33 points)
- Connor Bedard (31 points)
- Leo Carlsson (29 points)
This trio is also providing the NHL with a close to ideal formula to broadcast a race to the top. Bedard is playing most of his games in the Central Time Zone, while Carlsson and Celebrini are out west. While nobody is on the East Coast or playing in mountain time but it still leaves fans staying up late to find out who scored every night. This Tuesday, for example, Bedard scores a hat trick in a 5-2 Chicago Blackhawks win over the Calgary Flames, and then Celebrini scores a hat trick to lead the San Jose Sharks to a 3-2 overtime win over the Utah Mammoth.
The other thing to note on this scoring chase is that these players are establishing themselves in the NHL and aren’t going away anytime soon. One scout noted how this is the season where they prove they can dominate the league for the next decade. Fittingly, edging out McDavid or MacKinnon for the scoring title would be a passing of the torch moment.
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It’s hard to recall the NHL having a scoring race before, certainly one that they leaned into to attract all types of fans. They have one developing now, and it’s a glimpse into the future as well. Even if the games aren’t on ESPN, the highlights are everywhere, and fans are starting to notice how good Bedard, Carlsson, and Celebrini are. Better yet, with the Olympics around the corner, there’s a good chance two of the three, if not all three, make their international teams and put on a show for all the hockey world to see. This season is a perfect storm for the next wave of young talent, and they are making the most of it.
2. Is 40 (or 35) the new 30?
Ovechkin, Corey Perry, Brent Burns, and Jonathan Quick are all in their 40s and still putting together great seasons. In fairness, Burns is doing so in a decreased role while Quick will be sidelined with an injury. That said, the four veterans are helping their teams win games and, in some cases, playing vital parts in their team’s success.
It’s not just the 40-year-old players who are stepping up. It’s the players in their late 30s, notably 35 are older. Not only are some of them having incredible seasons (like Brad Marchand with the Florida Panthers) but there are more 35 or older in the game.
This season, there are 62 players 35 or older.
In 2023-24, there were 47 players 35 or older.
In 2020-21, there were 44 players 35 or older.
It seems like 35 or even 40 is the new 30. This isn’t a short-term trend either; players are better equipped in all sports to have longer careers. With better training, nutrition, and everything else, there are players aging gracefully throughout the league.
What This Means in the Short Term
It used to be that a player in their 30s looking for a second long-term contract wouldn’t get one. Now, teams are willing to sign those deals and not worry about them aging poorly. A rising cap helps but the longevity of players is what’s helping GMs make those bets. Chris Tanev got a six-year deal at 34 years old, and Marchand was given a six-year deal at 37. A decade ago, those deals never got handed out but now, they look like good value contracts.
Looking ahead to this offseason, there’s a good chance that Artemi Panarin heads to free agency. At 34, he’s at an age where he wouldn’t have received a big deal in the past. However, he’s aging well and still playing at an elite level with six goals and 14 assists on a hapless New York Rangers team.
One scout mentioned that he’s the big name who might want to test the market. Most of the elite players already signed extensions, and he’s one of the few who are left unsigned. There will be at least one team, if not more, willing to give him a six-year deal knowing that it will age well and give their team a star player to build around (much like the Rangers did seven years ago).
There’s also the Sergei Bobrovsky question. He’s 36, an age when most goaltenders decline. Yet, he’s coming off of back-to-back Stanley Cup runs and still proving he’s the best goaltender in the league for a must-win game. There’s a good chance he can get a four or even a five-year deal with a team that’s willing to bet on him aging well and putting together one more run at the Cup.
3. Will GMs Change the Way They Operate?
These deals are most likely going to only the best of the best. Ovechkin and Panarin are top of the league. The middle class, or the second tier of good but not great players, will probably get short-term deals, and GMs will avoid them at 35 or older.
It’s also contingent on the type of player heading to free agency. Panarin, for example, is a winger who doesn’t take a lot of hits and plays a style that favors a longer career. The same can’t be said about Anders Lee, who is 35 and heading to free agency (or a physical player or a shot-blocking defenseman).
The big change, aside from the front offices, is the timelines players put themselves on. It used to be that the second contract, either following the entry-level contract (ELC) or the bridge deal, was the big one for players. Now, the best in the NHL have a few chances to cash in with the assumption that they can play until their late 30s.
4. Which NHL teams are heading into Thanksgiving in deep trouble?
The classic cliche is that Thanksgiving is the bar or the time in the NHL season where teams can start to find out who will contend and who won’t. Thanks to the overtime point, there aren’t a lot of teams that have separated themselves from the pack.
Here’s a fun stat (huge shoutout to Brian Swane for digging it up). Through the 45th day of the regular season, there were 61 overtime games last season. This season, there were 95 games that went to overtime. It’s left the standings, especially the Eastern Conference, all bunched up.
That said, there are seven teams with a point percentage at or below .500 as of Sunday night. They are the Buffalo Sabres, Calgary Flames, Nashville Predators, New York Rangers, St. Louis Blues, Toronto Maple Leafs, and Vancouver Canucks. Which ones looked cooked like a turkey at 4 PM on Thursday afternoon? There are two categories to put all seven teams in.
Yeah, It’s (Probably) Over
Buffalo Sabres – The longest playoff drought in the NHL is poised to extend for another season. They’ve had good stretches but for the most part, they’ve been a mess. The big picture problem is that a lost season might mean another teardown to start a rebuild after a failed rebuild. Alex Tuch is a pending free agent, and Tage Thompson is impatient as his prime goes to waste. If there’s any team that will make a blockbuster trade, it’s them.
Calgary Flames – You can’t win a title in the first month but you can certainly lose one. That’s what happened with the Flames as they’ve failed to climb out of the early-season hole. This will likely force them to trade the veterans like Nazem Kadri and Rasmus Andersson, which, for a rebuild that already has young talent on the roster, isn’t the worst thing. That said, the Flames have won three in a row and have started to look more like last season’s team that missed out on the playoffs by tiebreaker. However, there’s a deep hole out of which to climb.
Nashville Predators – The push to contend in the 2024 offseason backfired, and now it’s time for Barry Trotz to clean it up (assuming he remains the GM). The only question is how far they go. Firing head coach Andrew Brunette and making one trade is a retool. Trading the veteran core, including Juuse Saros, is a rebuild. It’s why the Predators are a team everyone is watching, especially since they have some players that contenders will want in a big trade.
St. Louis Blues – If there’s any team that’s proven they can go from worst to first, it’s the Blues. The truth is, this team needs a roster reset. Their core isn’t good enough, and there are a lot of bad contracts weighing them down (plus, their farm system is bursting at the seams with talent to help the cause either). Their question is, who can they trade to reshape things? They don’t have many players who fit that bill.
Not Done Yet But Keep a Close Eye on Them
New York Rangers – The Rangers look like a mess but still have a high floor because Igor Shesterkin is in their net and still playing at a high level. It gives them an outside chance to make the playoffs and go on a run. The problem is that they are a mess elsewhere and need a reset as much as anyone. Ideally, it starts with a Panarin trade but he has a no-move clause, limiting what they can move him for.
Toronto Maple Leafs – The last-place Leafs. It feels weird typing that, yet that’s where they are with Thanksgiving around the corner. The injuries, especially in the net, have gotten to them. There’s still a chance they turn things around with their core leading the way but there’s a good chance they are sellers at the deadline and looking to retool on the fly.
Vancouver Canucks – The Canucks are the team to watch because if they are out of it, Jim Rutherford won’t wait around. He’s willing to make a big move well before the trade deadline, and this time, he has a player who teams will be willing to take on as a rental for a season and a half (it’s Quinn Hughes for those who weren’t aware). The Canucks lack an identity this season, and a few trades might be in the works because of it.
5. AHL Notes: Phantoms, Providence, Wolf Pack & More
This is one of the few weeks in the season when yours truly isn’t on the road covering the American Hockey League (AHL). So, let’s dump all the pucks on the ice and empty the notebook on some thoughts from the season so far. It’s worth noting that most of these thoughts will be on teams in the Atlantic Division, many of which are within driving distance of one another.
Let’s start with this weekend, where the Lehigh Valley Phantoms were down 2-0 and came back to beat the Hartford Wolf Pack. After the game, I spoke to Phantoms head coach John Snowden, and there were plenty of big takeaways from the 10-minute conversation.
- The Phantoms are starting to find chemistry to unlock their top players. It starts with the Alex Bump, Denver Barkey, and Lane Pederson line but trickles down to the Zayde Wisdon and Garrett Wilson duo on the fourth line. It also helps that defenseman Christian Kyrou is a straw that stirs the drink, or someone who opens things up for the team offensively.
- Snowden talked about how the team practices rush chances, and like a game of chess, it’s about moving pieces to control the center of the board (surprisingly, Snowden doesn’t play chess). It’s worth adding that, like Rick Tocchet, his practices are thorough, with both coaches being on the ice and giving detailed, often one-on-one instructions. You can tell that Snowden loves to talk about the X’s and O’s of hockey. “If I go into it, we’d be here for hours,” he noted when asked about how they practice the rush chances.
- Alex Bump is playing at a high level in the AHL. The question is what must happen to join the NHL team. You can read all about that here.
- Snowden is a relatable coach. He was willing to chat well after we were done with the interview, whether it was getting to know me or just chatting about the league. Throughout the conversation, it was clear he showed a willingness to connect. It’s something without question that the players feel as well. It’s also something that a scout remarked during the recent game as well, citing that he noticed how the players look like they love playing for him (and are clearly bought into his style).
American League Roundup
The Providence Bruins are a well-built team with veterans leading the way but goaltending is still their strength. It’s allowed them to generate pressure and play aggressively, knowing they have the goaltending tandem to bail them out on the other end. It’s also allowed them to play a unique style where the defensemen trail the play and play tight to the puck, which, when executed well, limits space for the other team and is tough to defend. They are the team the rest of the Atlantic Division will measure itself up against.
Speaking of teams that have an ideal mix of veterans and prospects, the Grand Rapids Griffins are in first place in the Central Division for that reason. John Leonard was a key part of the Charlotte Checkers’ run to the Calder Cup last season, and his 11 goals and six assists are helping the Griffiths start the season out hot. It’s that and a goaltending group led by Sebastian Cossa, who boasts a .940 save percentage (SV%) and a 1.67 goals-against average (GAA).
The question all these teams face is what happens when the talent drain hits. Oftentimes, a team will get off to a hot start but then the prospects are called up to the NHL, and the team falls apart. It’s what makes the AHL a crazy league to follow at times.
One team that’s struggling with the talent drain is the Wilkes-Barre Scranton Penguins. They were 7-0 to start and have gone 6-4-1 since. With Sergei Murashov, Ville Koivunen, and a handful of young stars on the Pittsburgh Penguins (and presumably, there to stay), it’s left the team has been piecing things together recently.
A Pennsylvania team that’s found its footing and is starting to climb the standings is the Hershey Bears. They struggled early on and were searching for an identity under new head coach Derek King. They have one now, and it’s led by great defensive play. The Bears allow only 2.68 goals per game and had a five-game winning streak before a Nov. 22 loss to the Cleveland Monsters that catapulted them into fourth in the division.
The Hartford Wolf Pack are better than its record indicates. They are 5-8-4 and have the second-worst record in the division. The problem is the blown leads and the inability to close out games. Snowden noted after the Phantoms’ win over the Wolf Pack that they are a tough team to play against. The reality is that the team deserves better, and it’s why changes might be on the horizon.
Hartford has gotten a large amount of criticism in recent AHL columns. That said, they aren’t the worst team in the AHL or even the worst team in their division. That would be the Springfield Thunderbirds, who are 3-10-2-1. With the Utica Comets (2-10-2-1) and Abbotsford Canucks (3-12-1-2) also putting together terrible seasons, the chase is on to see which team will end the season with the worst record in the AHL (and possibly end up worse than last season’s Bridgeport Islanders, who went 15-50-4-3).
5. Quick Hits: Can Defense Win Championships? Injuries Batter Contenders
The top five defenses in the NHL based on goals against per game are the Colorado Avalanche, New York Rangers, Pittsburgh Penguins, Seattle Kraken, and Los Angeles Kings. Only three of those teams currently sit in a playoff spot, and only one of those teams can definitively be classified as a Cup contender. They say defense wins championships, although the top five groups so far would suggest that, at best, they put you in the playoff discussion.
The Avalanche have the best defense in the NHL. They also have the best offense and are the only team in the NHL averaging over 4.00 goals per game. The top five offenses also include the Carolina Hurricanes and the Anaheim Ducks, so it’s probably a better indication of which teams are contenders (although it’s worth adding that the Maple Leafs have a top-five offense and sit in last in the Eastern Conference).
- The New Jersey Devils have been a mess since Jack Hughes was sidelined with his injury. They’ve gone 1-3 and have been outscored 14-7 in the four games without Hughes. It’s amazing to see an entire team collectively fall apart when one player leaves the lineup. Sure, the offense was expected to drop off but the defense has also been a mess as they’ve allowed 12 goals in the last three games. It’s also a big-picture concern since the Devils should have the supporting cast to carry the weight in the meantime, but don’t.
- The Montreal Canadiens are also battling injuries and falling in the standings because of it. Their struggles and injuries up the middle have them falling apart at the seams, and it explains why they took a flier on Alexander Texier, hoping he adds a spark.
- Mikko Rantanen has the big hit on Alexander Romanov, a hit that will sideline the defenseman for multiple months. A few days later, he delivered a dirty hit on Matthew Coronato that resulted in a one-game suspension. The first hit could be seen as an outlier but two dirty hits in one week make you wonder whether he’s a dirty player. Rantanen is one of the biggest forwards in the NHL, and that’s where his problems start, as he doesn’t realize the impact he’ll have when he hits someone.
- With Connor Hellebuyck out for multiple weeks, the Winnipeg Jets aren’t a shoo-in for a top spot in the Central Division. It’s up for grabs and the Minnesota Wild have snuck up on everyone to take it. Five wins in a row have them boasting the third-best record in the division, and they looked like a lost team a few weeks back. Just goes to show how much can change in a week, especially in a season like this one.
