Two themes came to mind after Thanksgiving. One, it’s good to be back on the road again and covering hockey in person (after two weeks off). Two, it’s injury season, and every team is starting to battle them. This season has had plenty of them but when December hits, the list of players out seems endless. Two teams are particularly struggling with injuries, and they are a driving force in this week’s observations.
The Starting Lineup:
- Are the Dallas Stars different this time around?
- What does a Jets retool look like? Is it worth it?
- Can the Devils miss the playoffs & is this a sign that their roster is flawed?
- What if the Rangers moved to Bridgeport? & Other AHL Notes
- Quick Hits: Capitals contention window, Ducks with Quenneville, & more.
So, let’s start by focusing on a team that doesn’t get enough coverage despite being a perennial powerhouse in the NHL.
Are the Stars Different This Time Around? Let’s Look At How
Since the Dallas Stars are playing in the same division as the Colorado Avalanche, they seem to be overlooked. They have the league’s second-best record and have played at the same pace or close to it in recent games as the Avalanche.
Avalanche Since November: 14-1-2, 4.11 goals per game & 2.00 goals against per game.
Stars Since November: 14-2-3, 4.00 goals per game & 2.40 goals against per game.
All this to say, the two best teams in the NHL are in the Central Division and will likely provide a Second Round matchup with the Stanley Cup on the line. The Stars are a juggernaut year in and year out, and there’s a fatigue that comes with that. They’ve reached the Western Conference Final three times in a row and came up short each time (it’s like the Buffalo Bills of the 1990s or the Philadelphia Eagles of the early 2000s). Everyone is waiting for the team to break through and finally win the Cup, and is tired of talking about them until they do so.
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This season appears different. The way they’ve played indicates that they have the pieces in place to get over the hump and win it all, even if the Avalanche also look like a team destined to win the Cup.
A Full Season of Rantanen is Paying Off Tenfold
18 points in 20 games is a disappointment by Mikko Rantanen’s standards. That’s what his post-trade deadline production looked like with the Stars until the playoffs rolled around. The 2024-25 season was a whirlwind for him, and it took time to acclimate to the new team after two trades and an extension. The full offseason had him ready for this season and he looks like the elite player the Stars knew they were getting.
Rantanen has 13 goals and 26 assists in 29 games and is powering through teams on the Stars’ top line. He’s on the wing while Wyatt Johnston centers the line, and the duo can overwhelm opponents in the offensive zone but also catch them by surprise with their burst of speed. Johnston, in many ways, is the ideal player to play with Rantanen since they both have similar skillsets but the younger scorer also has the instincts to find the open ice for scoring chances.
Johnston and Rantanen lead the offense, and then the power play has Jason Robertson added to the group. Robertson is also a man on a mission as he’s looking to make the USA Olympic team, and he’s the playmaker with elite speed who can open things up for the other forwards. When the trio is on the ice, opponents must focus on one of the three (usually, it’s Rantanen), and it helps everyone else. It’s no coincidence that 12 of Johnston’s 16 goals this season have come on the power play.
Since the Stars became an elite team, they were carried by a deep roster but lacked the elite talent to win in the playoffs. With Rantanen, they have a superstar who can take over games. With Johnston, they have the scorer who can net that clutch goal. Then there’s Robertson and Thomas Harley at the point who can clean things up. It’s a core that can go toe to toe with the Avalanche or the Edmonton Oilers, or the Vegas Golden Knights, the teams that have beaten them in the past, and they’ll most likely face in a playoff series.
A Surprisingly Young Stars Team
It’s surprising to find out that the average age of the Stars is below league-average (28.4 vs. 28.7). That number can sometimes be deceiving but the eye test shows that the Stars look like a younger team. They aren’t the type of team that will gash opponents with speed, yet they don’t have older players slowing them down either.
The Stars are known for their experience. In the past, it was Joe Pavelski, Ryan Suter, Tyler Seguin, and Jamie Benn playing pivotal roles, especially in the playoffs. The Stars still have experience but it’s a different type this time since the young players have been around the block. Johnston is only 22 years old, yet he has three playoff runs under his belt. They are a battle-tested team, and they know what it takes to make a deep playoff run.
Stars Have a Goalie on a Mission
Jake Oettinger is quietly putting together a great season. With a .908 save percentage and a 2.52 goals-against average on 519 shots and 5.1 goals saved above average, he’s not in the Vezina discussion but certainly can put himself there by the end of the season. The last two starts are a reminder of how important momentum is for him. When Oettinger gets going, he’s one of the best in the NHL but when a team beats him a few times, an Avalanche (or Oil Spill for playoff purposes) can follow.
There’s a chance Oettinger provides a preview for the playoffs during the Olympics. The USA net is up for grabs if Connor Hellebuyck doesn’t return in time from his injury. If that’s the case, Oettinger might be the starter and have a chance to prove that he can deliver when it matters most.
It’s why the playoffs are a concern at the back of everyone’s mind. The Oilers got to him a few times, and he wasn’t the same as the series progressed, which culminated in a SNAFU by head coach Pete DeBoer as he benched Oettinger in an elimination game that the Stars ultimately lost. The recent playoffs are part of why Oettinger looks different this season. While he’s not standing out in the regular season, he looks to prove he can take things up a notch in the playoffs.
Sergei Bobrovsky was the elite goaltender who would always win the Vezina but struggle in the playoffs. Then came his shift in play, where he’d play one way during the season and at another level in the playoffs. The Stars are hoping to get their version of Bobrovsky come playoff time, and with how things started, it looks like that’s where it’s heading.
What The Stars Can Do?
Jim Nill will make a move at the trade deadline, especially now that he has the cap space to do it (with Seguin out for the season). The general manager (GM) can take on a bad contract knowing the upside that comes with it. The Steven Stamkos deal, for example, is a tough one for any team to take on but the Stars have the cap space (and the tax-free state advantage) to make a deal work. Stamkos has a no-trade clause but would move it to join a Cup-caliber team like the Stars, and as a playoff-proven player, he’s the piece that can move the needle.
Stamkos, Nazem Kadri, or Artemi Panarin are the splash moves. Everyone knows Nill for those types of trades, notably after the Rantanen blockbuster. That said, his best work is the under-the-radar deal that goes a long way, which he’s done in each of the last three seasons.
At the 2023 trade deadline, he acquired Max Domi from the Chicago Blackhawks. Domi went on to score three goals and 10 assists in the subsequent playoff run to help the team reach the Western Conference Final. At the 2024 deadline, he landed Chris Tanev to turn around the defense. The Stars allowed 3.00 goals per game before they acquired Tanev, and only 2.30 goals per game following the deal. Even last season, the Mikael Granlund deal was a small one that added depth to the forward unit. So, expect a similar type of move from Nill to have the Stars ready to go head-to-head with the best of the West.
Can The Devils Miss the Playoffs? Let’s Look At Both Sides As They Slide
It’s amazing to see a team collectively fall apart the way the Devils have with one player out of the lineup. Jack Hughes is an elite player, and teams struggle all the time when they lose a top-of-the-league talent but the Devils have looked hapless since the injury, and it’s not just on the offensive end either.
The Devils have lost their last five games and have been outscored 20-7 in that stretch. Since Nov. 15 (the first game without Hughes), the Devils have a 4-8 record, average only 2.20 goals per game, and allow 3.30 goals per game. This team was the best in the Metropolitan Division a few weeks back and is currently on the outside of the playoff picture, looking in. Only one point separates them and the Columbus Blue Jackets for the worst record in the division.
Are the Devils in trouble? How should we view the Devils if they fall into a hole that they can’t climb out of and end up missing the playoffs? Let’s look at the two sides of their slide.
The Devils Advocate (They’ll be fine)
The Devils will get Hughes back either after the holiday break or early January. When he returns, the Devils won’t be too far from a playoff spot, and they can go on a run. The losses look bad, especially the last three, which featured 3-0 losses to the Stars and Vegas Golden Knights, and a 4-1 defeat to the Boston Bruins.
However, they’ve played better than the results suggest. The game against the Columbus Blue Jackets and the Philadelphia Flyers had some tough breaks, and the bounces didn’t go their way, so those bad luck moments will even out. With a strong enough core still in place, the Devils should stay competitive even without Hughes. It’s what happened at the end of last season as they still managed to secure a playoff spot even with him on injured reserve.
The schedule will also help them rebound. The next 11 games to wrap up the month include matchups against the Vancouver Canucks (11-15-3 record), Buffalo Sabres (11-13-4), Utah Mammoth (14-13-3), Toronto Maple Leafs (13-11-4), and Blue Jackets (13-9-6). It’s not out of the realm for the Devils to grab 10 points in that stretch to remain close enough to a playoff spot.
Another plus is that the season is unfolding with the Metropolitan Division and Eastern Conference all bunched together. There isn’t a group at the top separating itself from the pack and leaving everyone else in the dust. There’s a good chance the Devils will be within striking distance of the three seed or a wild card spot by the time Hughes returns and then make up the ground in the second half of the season.
The Sinaster Approach (This Team is Flawed)
As the saying goes, “Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.” It’s a cheap shot to call the Devils an injury-plagued team, especially since the Hughes injury is about as crazy as it comes, an oddity that happened off the ice (one that has Devils fans convinced that the team is cursed or has a jinx on them).
The problem with the Devils is that this isn’t the first time they’ve fallen apart when Hughes went down. The 2022-23 season was the rare one where he was healthy, playing 78 games while scoring 99 points, and the team ended up with the second-best record in the division. The next season, he missed 20 games, and the Devils missed the playoffs. He missed 20 games last season as well, and while they barely made the playoffs, they stumbled in and were easily defeated in the First Round by the Carolina Hurricanes.
The forward unit is built around Hughes, and there’s no answer when he’s gone. Jesper Bratt had five goals and 11 assists in 17 games with Hughes, benefiting on the wing from his playmaking and speed. Bratt has zero goals and 10 assists in the 12 games since. He’s just one of the many speed-based players who can take advantage of open ice but can’t create it.
The Devils missing the playoffs would be a sign that changes must be made to the forward unit. They can’t build the offense around one player, and it can’t go through Hughes, yet it always does. They’ve tried to build the second line around Nico Hischier, and it’s had success but it’s not enough.
This team used to have a defense that leaned heavily on Dougie Hamilton, their prize 2021 offseason signing, who is elite when healthy. The problem is Hamilton, like Hughes, wasn’t always healthy, and the defense wasn’t the same when he wasn’t on the ice. With the rise of Luke Hughes and Simon Nemec, the Devils no longer have that issue as they have three defensemen capable of impacting the game on both ends.
The question now is whether they can reshape their forward unit with a big trade so that they can withstand an injury (and no, Quinn Hughes isn’t a forward, even if he was jokingly called one early on in his career). Missing the playoffs would pressure them to make those changes, although that’s far away and still unlikely, all things considered.
What Does a Jets Retool Look Like? Is it Worth It?
Under the same theme as the Devils, the Winnipeg Jets haven’t been the same team without Connor Hellebuyck. He is out with a knee injury, and the Jets have fallen apart, winning two of their last nine games to fall into sixth place in the Central Division. The recent 6-2 loss to the Edmonton Oilers was just another reminder that this season is slipping away, and by the time Hellebuyck returns, their playoff hopes could be all but lost.
The problem the Jets have is that, unlike the Devils, they play in a division where the top teams are pulling away from everyone else. The Avalanche and the Stars look like the two best in the NHL, while the Minnesota Wild have won seven of their last 10 to sit comfortably in the third spot. The Jets can get Hellebuyck back and, at best, make a push for a wild card spot, especially with the big three pulling away.
Dive Deeper: Jets Issues Come to a Head
Typically, a lost season means a team sells at the deadline and either rebuilds or retools to prepare for the next season. The Jets are in a tough spot since they can’t rebuild. The core is locked up for the long term, and they don’t have the trade candidates that other struggling teams have that would bring back a significant return. Logan Stanley and Dylan Samberg are the two defensemen they can move at the deadline but that’s about as big a trade as they can make.
Otherwise, the Jets are looking at the pending free agents, players like Gustav Nyquist and Colin Miller. They can either move them in minor trades or play out the season and let them walk to open up cap space for the offseason ahead.
That leads to another issue the Jets face. They are the opposite of a destination where players, especially prized free agents, refuse to sign in Winnipeg. It’s a credit to GM Kevin Chevaldeyoff as he’s kept the Jets competitive for most of the past decade despite limited options. He’ll have his hands full once again as the team will likely head into the trade deadline as sellers with not much to sell.
That said, the Jets trading what they can will still help them in the long run. This is an older team without a great farm system. If Samberg brings back a prospect and a pick (and contenders love their depth defensemen), the Jets will be in a great position next season. This team needed a reset for a while, and the Hellebuyck injury is displaying it, so now they can pivot towards to future and set themselves up for long-term success.
What if the Rangers Moved to Bridgeport? & Other AHL Notes
The Saturday night game between the Bridgeport Islanders and Hartford Wolf Pack was an Islanders home game but felt like it was played at a neutral site. This is a common occurrence in Bridgeport since the team has been awful in recent seasons, and the area is New York Rangers country. Connecticut is split down the middle (or the I-91) between Rangers fans and Boston Bruins fans, and Total Mortgage Arena is on the Blueshirt side of the state.
One of the worst-kept secrets in the American Hockey League (AHL) is that the Islanders are leaving Bridgeport and relocating to Hamilton, Ontario, after the season (everyone I’ve spoken to has admitted this as well). They haven’t announced anything yet but the signs point to them moving and trying to build up a reliable fanbase elsewhere. The Tampa Bay Lightning have fans in Syracuse because their AHL affiliate, the Crunch, plays there, and New York Islanders GM Mathieu Darche has hands-on experience with that type of relationship as both the former Crunch GM and Lightning assistant GM.
What isn’t being discussed is what happens if the Islanders move. A few knowledgeable people around the league have noted that the Rangers would move into Bridgeport right away. The facilities are great, and it’s close to Westchester, where the Rangers practice facilities are, making callups easier for the NHL team.
Plus, Bridgeport is in Rangers country. So, the fanbase is already in place for a move. Presumably, the fans would be on board, even those who live in Hartford who attend more Wolf Pack games than Rangers games. I asked a few fans how they would feel if there was a subsequent move.
A few fans noted that they live in Fairfield County, which is where Bridgeport is located. Naturally, they would attend more Wolf Pack games instead of commuting to Hartford (or New York City for the Rangers). There are a lot of fans who fit into this category. They aren’t the ones who need to be won over.
There was another who drove from Hartford for the game and said the drive wasn’t bad at all (it’s 40 minutes or an hour, depending on the traffic). For most fans, even the fans who have supported a Hartford team long enough that they wear Whalers apparel, it’s a manageable commute. Speaking of Whalers fans, I bumped into one in Bridgeport who wasn’t too pleased about a possible relocation (he said he attends every Wolf Pack home game and tried to attend the nearby road games).
The telling response came from a group that took the Port Jefferson ferry, which connects Long Island to Connecticut and conveniently ends up in Bridgeport. The group mentioned that the trip, plus the overnight stay at a hotel, was much easier and cheaper than attending a Rangers game. It’s easy to forget how many Rangers fans live in enemy territory, and the ferry is an easy access point for them. One fan in the group told me that he would buy season tickets for a Rangers affiliate if the team played in Bridgeport.
The Rangers playing in Bridgeport makes too much sense. That said, Hartford is a great spot as well, where the team has a built-in fanbase, and it’s ideal for AHL travel. Between Bridgeport and Hartford, the league will want to have teams in both cities. It’s why the Rangers would likely want to have a foothold in both markets.
What is the ideal for Hartford if Bridgeport leaves?
The Rangers should move the Wolf Pack to Bridgeport and play most, if not all, of their games there. Most NHL teams don’t care much for their AHL team’s attendance but Hartford is a draw, and the occasional weekend game there makes sense.
This split would give them the chance to market their AHL team as “Connecticut’s Team” and have a bigger reach. This season, the Wolf Pack played 10 home games on Saturday nights, so keeping those games in Connecticut’s capital is a good idea.
The other idea is to move the ECHL team into one of the two cities. The Rangers current affiliate is the Bloomington Bisons, so if they can have all three teams within 90 miles of each other, it’s a big win, especially when it comes to roster moves. The bottom line is that the Rangers are waiting for that first domino to fall since the opportunity to seize on the Bridgeport market and everything that comes with it is theirs for the taking.
AHL Notebook
Enough games have been played to notice some splits. The Lehigh Valley Phantoms are 0-3 against the Wilkes-Barre Scranton Penguins this season. They are 12-4-1-2 against everyone else. The Phantoms are a good team but haven’t played well against their divisional rival, and it’s a red flag considering they play them 12 times and presumably will meet the Penguins in the playoffs (it’s also worth noting that they’ve gone 1-2-1-1 against the Hershey Bears, their other Pennsylvania rival).
Speaking of splits and the Penguins, they are 7-2 in games that Sergei Murashov has started. They are 10-3-1 when he’s not in the net. It’s not a big drop but the Penguins go from good to dominant when they have Murashov. His return after a brief stint in the NHL has allowed them to win five of their last six games to move into first place in the Atlantic Division.
Another team where the wins go hand in hand with their best player is the Wolf Pack when Gabe Perreault is in the lineup. He was called up to the NHL for a brief stint, and the team lost all five games. Perreault has stood out in his rookie season with 17 points in 17 games, and if the Rangers keep him in the AHL and allow him to develop throughout the season, he’ll be a finalist for the Rookie of the Year award.
Another rookie to watch is Ilya Protas. The power forward on the Hershey Bears has 20 points, and in the last nine games, he has eight goals and seven assists. It usually takes time for rookies, especially from an overseas background, to acclimate to the AHL. He’s ahead of schedule and looking a lot like his older brother Aleksei but with more skill on the offensive end.
The Friday night game in Hartford brought a lot of scouts from Western Conference teams out of the woods. Why? The Springfield Thunderbirds, who are affiliated with the St. Louis Blues, were in town. It’s a reminder that whenever someone tweets or posts on social media about scouts being in the building, fans shouldn’t read into that (scouts are always in the building).
That game in Bridgeport, by the way, was Teddy Bear Toss night, which is a common sight this time of year around the AHL. Those are always fun to experience live, and it’s a great minor league hockey tradition, especially since all the bears (and other stuffed animals) are collected and donated to kids in hospitals. In Bridgeport, there was extra joy since fun things like this didn’t happen when Lou Lamoriello was running the Islanders.
The other note on the Islanders is that they aren’t a good team and have a terrible defense, allowing 3.51 goals per game. That said, Rocky Thompson’s system is helping out the forward prospects. Matthew Maggio has four goals and 12 assists but more importantly, looks more confident and is playing a better, more comfortable game. It’s made him an option for the NHL team down the road, as he can become a valued depth forward for them.
Quick Hits: Capitals, Ducks & more.
The Washington Capitals are red-hot right now. Their 2-0 win over the Blue Jackets was their seventh in eight games and 10th in their last 12. The hot streak has them in first place in the Metropolitan Division and picking up where they left off last season. The hockey fan in everyone is just happy to see Alexander Ovechkin wrapping up his career on a high note. Even if he isn’t retiring after the season, he’s finishing his career with a few swings at the Stanley Cup.
The contention window for the Capitals is open, and it’s why they will make a move or two at the deadline. They have the prospect pool to make that upgrade, and while it probably won’t be a splash move, there will be a few deals to set them up for a Cup run.
- One scout noted this weekend that Joel Quenneville has a different approach in his first season behind the bench with the Anaheim Ducks. They are a younger team, and he knows the mistakes and growing pains will come with that. Quenneville is a calmer coach as a result and doesn’t look too concerned about the defensive struggles.
- Just when the Maple Leafs looked like they were turning a corner, they got hit with a ton of bricks. Joseph Woll was placed on injured reserve, and with Anthony Stolarz out for a significant time, the Maple Leafs are on their third and fourth-string goaltenders. Good luck building momentum with that type of tandem.
- A few weeks back, the sky was falling in Edmonton. The 8-3 loss to the Dallas Stars looked like a defining moment in the Connor McDavid era. They’ve won three of their last four games, including 4-0 and 9-4 wins over the Seattle Kraken.
- Speaking of the Kraken, they were the overachievers to start the season, and now they’ve hit a wall. With four losses in a row, they look like the bottom-feeder many of us expected they would be heading into the season.
- The last note is the Olympics. The ice is on everyone’s mind, and there’s talk about the NHL not sending its players to the event. The best option (in my opinion, in case anyone asked) is to find available arenas in North America and play a Four Nations-style event with NHL rules. That seemed like a hit last year.
