Draft day is here in what should be the most interesting the Pittsburgh Penguins have been on this day in quite some time.
For years, the Penguins either didn’t have their first-round pick because they traded it or they’ve been so far down the board because of playoff success, there hasn’t been a lot of drama. This year, they have both the 11th and 12th overall picks and a general manager who has implied he wants to be aggressive on the trade front. Specifically, trading for younger players with upside. There are few better days on the league’s calendar, if any, to do that kind of trading.
I am hoping the Penguins make at least one noteworthy deal at the draft today. Whether that is selling off one of their veteran players for more futures, trading up, or doing something like the JJ Peterka and Trevor Zegras trades earlier this week. I think the most meh outcome would be for the Penguins to use both the 11th and 12th overall picks. I feel that way because I don’t like the hit rates in the NHL draft once you get outside of the very top.
I’d hate for the team to do all this losing, wait four years, and then have what amounts to a player that can play in the NHL, but also doesn’t move the needle in any way. I perceive the odds of both players at 11 and 12 being difference makers (top six F, top four D) as not as great as it should be. It isn’t like the NFL draft where you can get difference-making starters throughout the first round. It is so hit or miss in hockey.
Another outcome I wouldn’t care for is taking a player because of their physicality or if they excel defensively while having lower point totals in juniors/college. You shouldn’t be using picks in the 11th and 12th overall range, hoping for and being happy with getting the next Ian Cole, Brooks Orpik, Brandon Sutter, or Brandon Tanev etc… Aim higher, it’s a higher skill league now. You need your defensemen to be able to push the play from the back. Forwards need to have a vibrant pulse of offense in the lower leagues if they are going to be worthy of an 11th or 12th overall selection. Don’t target player profiles that you can get easily outside of the draft. You can always find middle of the road NHL players in free agency and basic trading. What you cannot usually do is easily acquire upper-end talent from other teams. Other teams like to keep their upper end talent. Use your premium draft picks on players who have the potential to be better than, fine.
You also don’t need to try and copy the most recent Stanley Cup champion. We’ve seen many styles over the years win the Stanley Cup. Pittsburgh, in their five championships, has won the Cup by leaning into their offensive abilities. The Kings were a bigger, slower, more plodding team when they were winning their two Cups. Florida did it with size and tenacity, but they also had high end talent who were drafted near the tops of their draft classes. They used their draft capital and trades to acquire those players. Point being, you don’t have to be a carbon copy of a team like Florida you just need to use all available pathways to try and acquire actual difference makers.
In theory, Kyle Dubas agrees
In practice? We are going to find out.
As for some of the speculation surrounding the Penguins it should come as no surprise people think they would be willing to trade one of hte two first round picks
I think Bryan Rust has a decent chance of being traded. I also think the Penguins can wait for that NMC to expire in three days and then watch the desperation play out from other teams after they miss out on their primary targets.
I also think Utah is making a push to be relevant right now and if Dubas wanted to trade up to #4 overall someone like Rust could be a part of that
It should be a fun draft day with a lot of buyers around the league
Thanks for reading!
