The Pittsburgh Penguins started the night with the 11th and 12th overall picks. They ended up making selections at the 11th, 22nd, and 24th slots. There were no fireworks as far as trades went. Kyle Dubas elected to trade down, a draft day staple of his. Then the Penguins used each draft pick on making an actual selection while trading.
For me, this was the dullest of all the outcomes with the team having the 11th and 12th overall picks. Dull doesn’t necessarily mean things won’t work, it just means there were more interesting outcomes to be had with the draft capital the Penguins built up. These picks are likely going to take some time. It’s going to have to be a wait and see approach. We won’t have an answer on if these picks were wise for a number of years. All I know is that they have to hit on these picks. These three need to give them meaningful NHL minutes. Otherwise, it’s a huge missed opportunity when you consider some of the players they passed on at 11th overall and the wasted draft capital that could have been used to trade for player(s) that had some tangible NHL experience.
I came across this before the draft started yesterday and it is something I completely agree with
When you are drafting in the upper half of the first round your goal should be to try and get a difference maker. You shouldn’t be making choices where the ceiling is some depth player you can easily acquire at any time. Third liners aren’t hard to acquire and neither are bottom pairing defenseman. Take a proper swing at acquiring top six and top pairing talent.
Technically, the Penguins reached on all of their picks. If you’re looking for the team to max out on perceived value the Penguins did not do that. Let’s look at what they did do.
At 11th overall they selected Benjamin Kindrel from the Calgary Hitmen of the OHL. I don’t think it is the name people were expecting, but I do think there is potential here. He has very end offensive skills. Statistically, he has a solid offensive profile putting up 99 points in 65 games last year in the regular season adding eight goals and 15 points in 11 playoff games. He has a high hockey IQ and is a solid 200 foot player for such an undersized center. He has the kind of skill set which can lead to playing top six minutes in the NHL
I don’t mind taking this kind of swing on a player who clearly has a sample of having offensive success. I want to see the chance of becoming a star box as high as you can get. They are probabilities and not destinies, but i’d like to see the probabilities maxed out as much as possible.
Immediately after making this selection it was announced the Penguins were trading down and here is where me and the team differ. I wouldn’t have traded down. You can talk value all you want, but the fact of the matter is when you trade down in an NHL draft you are lowering the probability of getting a difference maker. I’m not very interested in taking wo potential depth players. Take the next best available player at 12. Especially, when you have a forward like Victor Eklund sitting there.
The Penguins went with Bill Zonnon. Zonnon had a really good season for his junior club last year. He had 83 points in 64 games. Where I get nervous is that he earned this playing in the QMJHL. I don’t have a high opinion of the Q as a league and sometimes what looks like good production just doesn’t translate when a player makes their way up the ranks, Sam Poulin being a recent Penguins example drafted in the same neck of the woods of the first round.
Bill Zonnon may very well end up an NHL player. Will he be a difference maker? If so, the frequent comparisons to longtime NHLer Wayne Simmonds better pan out. Voluntarily passing on players like Victor Eklund for a Bill Zonnon isn’t the game plan I would have gone with. For reference sake, Zonnon by historical stat research is at 5% of becoming a star while Eklund is at 28%.
The Penguins then traded back up to #24 overall to selection Will Horcoff. This is where the Penguins are really reaching. Horcoff is the son of Shawn Horcoff and is 6’5”. How much both of those factors played into making the selection I don’t know. I do know that they probably could have gotten this player at 31st overall. This is the kind of pick that has some red flags. Horcoff hasn’t really produced offense at the lower levels and has a lower ceiling than I’d like to see.
I’m going to be flat out honest. I don’t like the pick and I don’t like trading up for it.
Overall, I’m feeling pretty meh about how this played out. I don’t think they got great value while owning both the 11th and 12th overall picks. I think there were a lot of other paths the night could have taken which would have been more interesting and given them a higher chance of landing a difference maker.
This is a huge moment in how quickly the Penguins can rebound and become competitive again. There isn’t a lot of room for error. Dubas shot his shot and these are the three guys they have now. He can’t have any misses among the bunch. If fans are going to be subjected to watching bad hockey the team needs to turn that bad hockey into worthy selections. I’m tepid they did so and I’m not alone. Scott Wheeler had the Penguins as losers in round 1.
I thought they outsmarted themselves a little in terms of where they took their players, even if they walked away with three good prospects and their pool is in a much better place now than it was before the night started. For a GM who has never been shy to move back and did on Friday night, I think they could have gotten two or maybe even all three of their guys a little lower.
Thanks for reading!
