McDavid Gets A New Deal; What It Means

So it finally happened, the Edmonton Oilers and Connor McDavid agreed on a new contract extension to take the generational star two more years in Edmonton before he moves on.  McDavid, who will be 29 in January and 31 at the end of this next deal, has made something clear to the Oilers:  shift gears, change things up, or he will be gone.  

He has, err, had that option but decided against moving on for greener pastures after this season and accepted a two-year, $25 million deal that will pay him $12.5 million per year. This is a deal for the Oilers, and not just in AAV, but a few other ways as well.  

While not cheap in terms of dollar value across the league, it’s far from his market value, and that’s deliberate for a few reasons.  Edmonton gets an out clause with this deal because if Connor asks, he can be moved at that salary structure, and the Oilers can likely eat some salary or trade it away too in a three or four-party deal to move the cap hit.  

It’s a curious situation for a few reasons because there are many who will have issues with it, most notably the NHPLA.  How do they feel about the best player in the game leaving money on the table?  Well, that’s another way the Oilers benefit from the deal, too; there is cap space to be used. As it stands now, McDavid’s next deal only takes up 12% of cap space but that number could drop too as the cap rises, and interesting enough, it’s the same AAV from his last contract that averaged 15.72% of cap space.

(Shout out to CapWages for this)

Edmonton receives two decent wins out of this deal, and that is some cap flexibility and a contract that can be moved should the team hit a rough patch and not be seen as a contender.  The deal also potentially incentivizes some other NHL players to accept a trade to Edmonton as a chance to play with McDavid and win.  With Henrique, Kapanen, Ekholm, and Stecher all having contracts expiring after this season, perhaps that helps one or two stay if that makes sense.  

There is risk in this deal, and it may have been a risk the Oilers had to take, and that is not making him an Oiler for life, much like Crosby is with the Penguins.  It’s also a short window to make changes, given the roster, and that also puts pressure on the GM to have to take more risks.  

Personally, I think GMs, for the most part, are terrible at assessing and managing risk.  Is it a risk not to upgrade goaltending for Edmonton?  Sure, but is that why they did not win a Stanley Cup the last two years despite making the finals?

If you were given $1000, would you bet on either the Panthers or Oilers making the finals again?   I would bet against it, and that’s simply because the probability of doing it three times in a row is more than unlikely, given the variables that could affect that outcome.  That pressure now moves to the coach and GM because the clock is ticking and there better be results, or so we are led to believe.

However, do we know that’s what has gone through McDavids’s mind and that of his management brain trust?  This could simply be a precursor to protect him and the Oilers for unintended events.  It could also lead to another shorter deal once market conditions are seen around the league at the time he is set top become a UFA.

What about McDavid’s teammates?  What does this deal say to them, and how do they broach the issue?  Most players know and live the business realities of the league.  Loyalty is to your salary and continued health, and even the best of the bes,t like McDavid, are forced to face tough decisions as basically every other player has.  

One thought I heard was about protection if it appears McDavid is leaving.  Will his teammates go in and stand up for any abuse he gets- of course, they will. Their futures are tied to his as well. They do have aligned interests and that is winning and prospering.  

The real questions about the short-term future of McDavid and the Oilers boil down to what is Edmonton GM Stan Bowman prepared to do in a 3-year window, one that is really 2 years, given that McDavid is tradable should the Oilers underperform in that last season of his deal?

That’s where the curiosity and intrigue of this deal come in; watching the moves Bowman will have to make to ensure a third straight trip to the finals.  Pure entertainment for many, angst and a lot of handwringing and second-guessing by the Edmonton faithful but certainly a lot of risk calculation.  

The Oilers and McDavid took a big risk for many reasons with this deal, and while it could work favorably for both sides, or be disastrous for both sides.  If McDavid wants a legacy that includes a Stanley Cup to go with his Conn Smythe, would anyone of guessed this route?