After recording just two points in 16 games, it was yet another quiet night for beleaguered forward Connor Zary on Tuesday.
Zary and Nazem Kadri rolled out together for two scoreless shifts in the five minutes leading up to the Flames scoring two quick goals to get them back in the game.
The first shift featured the 24-year-old bobbling the puck on a rush and giving possession away via a board battle. The second saw Zary lose his coverage in the defensive zone leading to a massive rebound from an unfettered shot from Brayden Schenn. A little bit later in the shift, Zary had the chance to keep possession in the O-zone and the puck simply did not want to be stopped by someone running as cold as he was.
The biscuit simply seems to be allergic to the blade of #47.
Less than a minute after Zary hopped off the ice, Matthew Coronato received a gorgeous stretch pass from Brayden Pachal to kick off a late game push to tie the score.
It didn’t get much better in the final stanza.
The 24th overall selection from the 2020 NHL Entry Draft played his first shift of the third on the fourth line and effectively made no impact on the play. A couple minutes later, he’s back out there with Kadri.
It’s this shift that we see the other side of his game. The Flames have possession in the O-zone and Zary makes some great plays along the wall to set up two chaotic scoring scrambles in front of the Blues net. The shift ends with Connor giving up the puck on the blue line and the Blues go in on a 4-on-2 that didn’t result in a goal.
All the good from that shift is underlined by a terrible misplay.
With 9:08 on the clock, Zary hit the ice for his last shift of the game.
Two failed zone entries. Both times, Zary was the puck carrier. The first was a clumsy offside. The 24-year-old from Saskatoon flipped the puck over the glass on a failed dump-in on try #2.
Head coach Ryan Huska gives him one more chance. One more face-off to end this mid-third period nightmare of a shift.
A quiet last ride. Like so much of the game before then, Zary struggled to close distance on any Blues player who had the biscuit. The recurring theme of his night was that his play away from the puck was unacceptable.
Benched for the final 7:39 of the game. The human wrecking ball Adam Klapka gets Zary’s slot on the wing until the very end when Huska finally re-united Jonathan Huberdeau with Kadri for a final minute push.
We can take two things from Tuesday’s flop of a game from Connor Zary:
Puck Pressure
With the way he’s playing right now, Zary isn’t a fit with Nazem Kadri and Joel Farabee.
Calgary’s star center does his best work with a strong dose of chaos to feed upon. That’s why Martin Pospisil has found himself on Kadri’s line so often in the past. Turnovers, transition, timely goals.
Zary can’t do that by being a step behind when he doesn’t have the puck. Farabee and Kadri are solid enough at forcing turnovers, but they’re also guys that need time and space to generate offence.
Zone Time
If we learned anything from that third period, it’s that Connor Zary still has the tools to be an offensive force. Pivoting around and making net drives is something that he’s excellent at—but he needs established possession. This brings us to a conclusion.
Connor Zary May Need a New Line
Not rocket science. Lines need solid chemistry. It’s nice to say, “put him out there with some talent”, but no one on that line is going to show off their talent if they can’t force possession consistently.
His current unit has just OK underlying numbers. An expected goals rate of 52.4% through four games or 34:42 of ice time. One goal for and zero against.
Decent underlying numbers don’t change the results. One goal from that unit in that amount of time isn’t going to cut it if they’re getting prime offensive deployment.
Which leads us to today’s topic:
Where is a Good Fit for Connor Zary?
Who will get the most out of the six-foot, all-positions forward? Two requisites:
-Someone who is usually on the puck first.
-Someone who can help him maintain time in the offensive zone.
It’s undeniable that Ryan Huska needs to get more out of Zary if he wants to get the offence out of last place scoring rate of 2.06 goals per game. He knows that. Zary wouldn’t be getting reps with the team’s #1 center if he didn’t.
Let’s look at how a few line mates have done with Zary and maybe identify some signs of chemistry. Take note that when an offence-oriented forward has only a goal and an assist in 16 games—we’re going to be using small sample sizes to find some positives.
Sam Honzek
The 20-year-old Honzek has been something of a Pospisil-Lite this season.
Well above average in speed metrics for the ice time he gets; 12:29 per game on average. Another first round pick with plenty of latent skill just waiting to translate to the score sheet.
Their underlying numbers look great together.
In 17:01 of 5v5 time while both are on the ice, the Flames have out-attempted the opposition 19-10, out-shot the opposition 8-4, and are 2-2 in high danger chances.
A hint towards some chemistry is that the two have much worse metrics when away from each other, but that may be explained by being more of a sample size issue. The eye test pitch is that Honzek can drive play with his speed through the neutral zone and cause enough havoc for the both of them to do some work in the offensive zone; much like Zary has done in the past with Martin Pospisil.
Throw Kadri onto that line for some extra finishing power? You might have a more consistent scoring threat.
Verdict: There is potential there. Sam Honzek is also around long enough for Zary to chisel out some chemistry with him.
Adam Klapka
One credit to the fourth line of Lomberg-Zary-Klapka is that the unit hasn’t allowed a goal at 5v5. They out-shoot the opposition 16-10, but high danger chances look bad at 4-10 in favour of the other team.
Nor have they scored a goal when all of them are on the ice. It might be fair to say that Zary doesn’t belong on that line.
Remove Lomberg from the equation and it’s still 0-0 in 5v5 goals with just Zary and Klapka in 10:58 of time on ice.
Maybe Klapka is a bit too heavy on the chaos. Maybe Zary isn’t keeping up with Adam’s homing missile style forecheck, but there simply isn’t a lot there so far. The same can be said for Lomberg with Zary. 5:04 and zero goals for or against.
Verdict: Not a fit.
Morgan Frost
From an expected goals perspective, Honzek-Frost-Zary is a home run.
The three have only gotten spare looks together; 14 minutes through two games. The line has an expected goals percentage of 66.6%.
The only problem there is that their expected goals per 60 is 0.4 and their expected goals against is 0.2—low event hockey, and once again, 0-0 in scoring. With those kind of low rates, Frost’s high-end speed is better deployed with players that are actively producing points.
Verdict: Frost’s speed and hockey IQ wouldn’t hurt Zary’s production, but every line on the Flames needs Morgan Frost’s speed and hockey IQ. There is only one Morgan Frost.
Matthew Coronato
It stands to reason that the two might be a fit together. Zary is a natural playmaker, Coronato is the best shooter on the team.
Sadly, we haven’t been given a lot to analyze. The two have gotten dominated at 5v5 when they’re both on the ice at the same time. 1-6 in shots and 0-3 in the brief 10:04 that they’ve been on the ice together.
Coronato and Zary also both need someone to generate space for them. The line of Honzek-Coronato-Zary has been on the ice for a total of one second, so maybe we see that combo rolled out as Huska continues to try things.
Verdict: Throw in Martin Pospisil or Sam Honzek and we’re cooking.
Backlund & Coleman
The classic Backlund Bump. Connor Zary has ridden shotgun for them in the past and it’s worked out, right?
Not really this season. That trio has the worst expected goals percentage among any Flames line to play at least ten minutes at 27.3% through 17:00 of play. They’re also 0-1 in scoring while all out together.
Verdict: A model of consistency and two-way play, saddling Zary with those two would surely bring stability—but that unit may not a launching pad for his offensive game.
Rock and a Hard Place
With just two points in 16 games, looking for answers is about all that Flames fans can do when it comes to Connor Zary.
He’s not living up to his recently signed three-year $11,330,000 deal that averages $3,775,000 of annual cap hit, he’s not happy about where his game is at, and surely the team is disappointed too.
There may be explanations that we don’t know about.
Zary has fought through a number of injuries in his pro career, his puck luck is exceptionally poor when it comes to bounces, and the team is so loaded with contracts that he can’t be given an extended run on a line without it bringing the whole unit into production purgatory.
What we do know is that Zary has a dynamic skill set just waiting to emerge from this miserable start. We also know that he’s a restricted free agent at the end of his three-year contract and a core member of Calgary’s youth movement. For now, all parties will have to be patient and remain optimistic about a turn of luck and chemistry.
Stats courtesy of Natural Stat Trick, MoneyPuck, Cap Wages, and the National Hockey League.
KEEP READING:
Analysis: Do the Calgary Flames Have a Discipline Issue?
Calgary Flames Early Season Struggles: Kadri Trade Talk & Young Core Under Fire
Benched: Making Sense of the Matthew Coronato Situation
Between the Lines: Insiders Greenlight a Flames Rebuild
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Thanks Trevor!
Great write up. Frustrating year for Zary but they just need to keep putting him in a position to succeed. What have they got to lose?
Any news on Honzek? He is looking like a sneaky good pick.
Honzek is week-to-week! Agreed on Zary. He needs to work through it if it’s not injury-related.
Kerins sent down, Hunt called up. Both NHL and AHL groups are on the road for most of the next few weeks.
Kerins cannot catch a break. I think he deserves a longer look.
Agreed. Decent underlying numbers. He’ll figure it out. Both the Flames and Wranglers are on the road for most of the next three weeks.