Getting Timing Of Rust Trade Right

Bryan Rust has been a mainstay with the Pittsburgh Penguins since bursting onto the scene in 2015-16 as an unheralded 23 year old. By the end of Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals everybody knew his name. He scored the Penguins two goals in a 2-1 victory over the Tampa bay Lightning, sending the Penguins to the Stanley Cup Final for the first time since 2009. He was a Stanley Cup Champion a couple weeks later.

Throughout the years Rust has been a constant alongside Sidney Crosby and has found tremendous success being there. Last year, he set career highs in goals with 31 and points with 65 in his age 32 season.

This year he remains productive with 15 points through 17 games, which puts him at a 72 point pace for the season. On the surface things are looking pretty good. The team is outperforming every preseason expectation and Rust is still producing offense at a more than acceptable rate.

So what’s the issue?

Defensive woes

It’s no secret that Bryan Rust is one of the three Penguins most talked about in trade discussions along with Erik Karlsson and Rickard Rakell. In that pecking order a lot of people probably have him as the third of three to be traded. He is an original Penguin and has the closest ties to Sidney Crosby. He’s what you would call a “true Penguin”.

I think there are some arguments for him being the first guy of the three the Penguins should be trading, as unpopular as that may be. There are some warning signs under the hood with Rust. Right now he is one of the worst defensive players in the league.

Listen, over the years I’ve talked about overlooking offense for defense and as a general rule I still feel that way. It’s just when you combine how bad his defensive metrics are with his age (33) it might be the early warning signs of the decline. I don’t think anybody who has watched Rust throughout his career would say that he looks like himself out there. The eye test shows a player not looking like he once did, despite the really good offensive results.

Here is how Bryan Rust ranks among the 266 forwards who have played 200 minutes of 5v5 this season.

5v5	#	Rank
xGF/60	2.86	88/266
xGA/60	3.34	258/266
xGF%	46.09	200/266
Pts/60	1.67	125/266
PDO	1023	84/266

You can see that defensively it has been a struggle. There’s no mincing words on it, he has been among the worst forwards in the league. Those are the raw numbers. Here are some of the visualizations on it

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Offensively, the 15 points in 17 games mitigates this a little bit, although you can see his points per 60 at 5v5 is middle of the road. Seven of his 15 points this year have come on the power play. That isn’t inherently negative, the Penguins are the best power play in the league (34.1%), but this is the lowest the points per 60 at 5v5has been since 2022-23 when it was 1.55.

Getting the timing right with Rust trade

We are only a fifth of the way into the season at this point. The sample size isn’t something to make definitive statements with. I believe it is something to track moving forward and if the trends continue it is something Kyle Dubas should be mindful of. The aging curve comes for all players and that aging curve isn’t going to look like it has for Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin for the overwhelming majority, Rust included.

Part of turning the corner as a franchise will be how Dubas handles the veteran players like Rust. If he is going to ultimately trade the aging veterans he needs to get the most he possibly can. Looking at how things are trending with Rust, the runway to maximize his value might not be as long as the runway with both Erik Karlsson and Rickard Rakell.

Erik Karlsson is playing the best he has since coming to Pittsburgh and I think he will continue to play at this level. Rickard Rakell is currently injured so his value isn’t where it could be at the moment. He will need to come back from the injury and show that he is still producing to entice any potential buyers. I think he will.

For now, Bryan Rust is probably the asset with the tightest timeline. Waiting too long might lead to his perceived value to drop. Given his style of play, his age, the eye test, and some of the metrics it is definitely a tight rope walk moving forward. It’s the kind of tight rope walk which might make him the first domino to fall despite his strong ties to both Sidney Crosby and the Penguins.

Trading Rust won’t be a popular decision, especially if the Penguins are in the thick of the playoff race. However, Dubas’ focus needs to remain on the big picture and the work he has started.

There is still time, no action needs to be taken right now, but this is definitely something that should be on Kyle Dubas’ radar. He will need to be ready to act when the time is right, even if it will feel so wrong.