The daily lead story on HockeyHotStove is powered by Benevolent Bakery, by SoShel beverages and by Smokiez vegan fruit choice, dedicated to quality and consumer education. Today’s topic: Red Wings have no margin left for error.
The Detroit Red Wings face essentially a must-win game on Thursday against the Philadelphia Flyers. A loss to Philly would cut the Red Wings’ already faint playoff hopes down to 0.6% if it’s regulation loss or 2.6% if it comes in overtime or a shootout. Even if Detroit wins in regulation on Thursday, the chances are still less 10% (9.2% to be exact) that the Wings end up in the final wildcard spot in the East.
Psychologically, the season may have taken a mortally wounding blow two nights earlier. The Columbus Blue Jackets tied the game with just 17 seconds left, and then won the game in a shootout. Consequently, Detroit now sits 3 points outside of the playoffs with just four games left to play. Mathematically, the post season is nearly impossible, thus Detroit will likely miss for the 10th consecutive year.
Detroit’s recent losing streak has been costly, however the team just could not bounce back in this one. This was the second straight game where the Wings saw a late collapse. Similarly, the Minnesota Wild had scored the game winner with less than two minutes left in the previous contest. Those late losses seem to be even more difficult to process.
The Red Wings sit with 89 points after 78 games played. The team could reach 97 points if they swept their final four games, however that seems very unlikely. The final scenario for the post season would be Detroit winning four straight, and Ottawa losing two games in regulation. However, Columbus would also have to lose one game in regulation as well. If Ottawa gets five points in their next four games, Detroit cannot close the gap.
Notable performances from Debrincat and Larkin
Dylan Larkin scored his 31st goal of the season in the loss, thereby eclipsing that 30 goal mark for his fifth straight season. Larkin has been battling injury, even so he’s been a strong contributor for the Wings. Larkin sits second on the team in goals scored and third in points with 61. He sits 27 goals shy of 300 scored in his career.
Alex Debrincat has been an MVP for the Red Wings this season. Debrincat scored his 82nd point in the loss, a new career high. With four games left, “The Cat” still has a chance to eclipse 40 goals or the third time in his career. Debrincat is just eight goals shy of 300 for his career, and 8 points shy of 600. He leads the team in points, and will end the year at a point per game or better.
Detroit now has the longest active playoff drought
The Buffalo Sabres secured a playoff birth, avoiding a 15th straight year missing the post season. Consequently, the Red Wings will now hold the longest active streak, missing the playoffs. It’s a hard reality after a year that saw so many positives before the league shut down in February.
The Red Wings are still, technically, not eliminated from the post season. However, the falloff in the month of March has once again been incredibly costly. Detroit is going to have to answer the question, once again, of why. Similar to last season’s “Four Nations” break, the Red Wings were a different team after the break.
A regulation loss on Thursday would mean literally everything would have to go Detroit’s way in the final three games: not just their own matches but those of every other team’s games until the end. However, a regulation win would technically keep the team alive and in the hunt. Still, other teams will have to lose games at this point. Hopefully the Wings will play their best hockey and have a strong showing to finish the year.
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