Capitals’ Offseason Picture Gets Clearer

A month after their season ended, the Washington Capitals now have a clearer picture of what the off-season will look like with the 2026 NHL Draft just over a month away in Buffalo.

The Anaheim Ducks’ elimination at the hands of the Vegas Golden Knights Thursday locked in the first-round pick acquired for John Carlson at the 18th overall pick, to go along with Washington’s own 16th pick which was set in the Draft Lottery earlier this month. Should the Ducks moved on to the Western Conference Final, the pick would have fallen down to one of the last five picks of the first round, but the result helped the Caps preserve the pick’s value.

Washington’s lone 16th overall selection in the NHL Draft came in the 2012 and resulted in Tom Wilson, their last 18th overall pick was Eric Fehr in 2003. Both players certainly had a role in the Capitals’ recent surge post-lockout, and now General Manager Chris Patrick will have a choice to make with the two picks one spot apart.

Capitals weigh upside vs risk

The two picks fall in more of a flier version of the NHL Draft, where you can find some good talent, but also definitely more of a risk than the Top 10 selections where some picks can be riskier.

The last 10 years, the 16th and 18th picks haven’t delivered an NHL All-Star yet, although a couple of names do stick out. Since Wilson was drafted in 2012, a couple of familiar names have been picked in that spot, with Sonny Milano going to the Columbus Blue Jackets in 2014, Jakob Chychrun picked by the Arizona Coyotes in 2016, Mat Barzal going to the New York Islanders in 2015, and Alex Newhook, who is playing well for the Montreal Canadiens in this year’s playoffs, was the Buffalo Sabres’ 16th pick in 2019.

The 18th pick is a bit longer odds, with the top one of those picks in the last 10 years being Dawson Mercer of the New Jersey Devils, who was taken in 2018.

The value of these two picks to Washington could be using them in a trade to move up the draft board, or try and use them as an enticement for another trade.

The Ovechkin factor

Of course, the other major decision the Capitals have to make on Alexander Ovechkin’s future, as while it seems their captain would like to return to Washington, it’s also pretty clear he wants to see some movement towards being a Cup contender again before he will decide to return.

While the Caps’ captain hasn’t quite looked the same in recent years, it’s also true he is tied for the top goal-producers among this year’s unrestricted free agents, tied with former Cap Anthony Mantha with 32 goals. For a team already in need of a Top 6 forward, needing two could prove to be expensive and even with Washington’s ample cap space, that could prove problematic for a team that finished in the middle of the pack in goal production this season.

One would figure an Ovechkin decision comes before the Draft, because Washington will need to know what they have to work with personnel and salary wise before July 1, but it could also come once a move is made. Patrick had promised to acquire a Top 6 before this year’s trade deadline, and not being able to work a deal certainly won’t help the Capitals’ case until one is made.

Potential Capitals trade bait

Trade-wise, the Capitals also may look to trade backup goaltender Charlie Lindgren this offseason, who has two seasons left at $3 million apiece. Lindgren is probably an affordable option for a team looking for at least a tandem netminder, and with Clay Stevenson preforming well with a .921 save percentage in this year’s Calder Cup playoffs, he seems to have the inside track on taking over the backup role in Washington next season. The Capitals were able to put Stevenson through waivers this season, but it is unlikely they could retain him next season, so they likely would look to trade Lindgren for a cheaper and younger option, particularly with Logan Thompson clearly being the team’s No. 1 heading into next season.

Washington’s major restricted free agent is Connor McMichael, who showed some development this season but also could be a potential trade candidate in a larger deal. With a couple of other candidates, along with Hendrix Lapierre or Andrew Cristall that could fill the prospect role in a trade, Washington would have some options. But for a team needing offensive help, they also may opt to hang on to see which ones pan out.

Carlson’s trade also showed some weakness on the back end for Washington, and it is unlikely the defenseman will return back to the Capitals. Clearly the team didn’t think it would be able to re-sign Carlson when they dealt him at the deadline, and his price certainly didn’t go down as he helped Anaheim reach the second round of the postseason and seems more likely than not to stay in Orange County.

Cole Hutson’s addition helped the team’s offense from the blue line, but they also need some more responsible defensemen, and figure to potentially lose Trevor van Reimsdyk and Timothy Liljegren to free agency, although with Rasmus Sandin out for a while with an injury suffered in Pittsburgh, they may opt to ink one to help fill the role.

But with a lot of cap space available for the coming year, some potential pieces to deal with and a pair of first-rounders, the next month certainly does not figure to be boring for the Capitals’ organization.