There was plenty of hype for the 2025 Stanley Cup Final. Usually, when something is hyped up to be great, it flops. Through two games, the matchup between the Edmonton Oilers and the Florida Panthers has been everything plus some. Only two games were played, and three overtime periods were a part of it.
The focus in this week’s observations is on the rematch. It’s one that is thrilling so far and will have many twists and turns moving forward. So let’s look at…
- Why Game 3 & Game 4 will look different
- The Oilers & Panthers who are due for big games
- The Knoblauch-Maurice chess match
- The ideal coaching destination deserves the ideal coach
- Quick Hits: Calder Cup Check In
So, let’s dive right in with a series that is shaping up to be a classic. Yet, some things might change quickly.
The First Two Games Saw 16 Goals
Playoff hockey is known for being slow and physical, with defense standing out. Don’t tell the Oilers and the Panthers that. The offenses took over Game One and Game Two with 4-3 and 5-4 overtime results. The two teams moved the puck up the ice almost at will and generated multiple tough shots on the net, setting the tone for the rest of the series.
That said, Game Three won’t be high scoring, and the same will be said about Game Four. There are a few things to keep in mind as the series shifts to Florida and the defenses adjust.
1) Sluggish ice in Florida
For the casual fan, there isn’t a difference from one home rink to another. Many coaches and front offices will also swear that the ice in one rink is the same as others. Players are quick to say which arenas have the best ice and which ones don’t. Edmonton is always known for having great ice as a colder arena (in a colder city), and it usually results in high-scoring games. Conversely, the humidity in Florida makes the ice slower and the games reflect that.
2) The defenses will help Bobrovsky and Skinner
Through two games, the Oilers and Panthers are firing shots on the net at will. It’s a reflection of the skill both offenses have and not on the defenses. When both defensive units are playing well, they can shut down any offense and expect that to do that. The big key is clogging up the high-danger areas, and for both defensive units, it will be all about the physical play in those areas to control pucks in the area.
3) Due for a regulation goalie duel
Once overtime rolls around, Sergei Bobrovsky and Stuart Skinner have been trading saves. Through two games, Skinner kept up but Bobrovsky had the upper hand. In the upcoming games, there’s a good chance there won’t be as many shots on the net. Lower quantity shot games don’t always make for lower-scoring games but do sometimes make it easier to play the angles on my saves. Both goaltenders will be asked to carry their teams to victory, which they can.
One major takeaway so far is that Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl can take over games even when the Panthers are playing them well. Likewise, the Panthers have enough firepower to run up the score even if one of the top-six lines struggles. That said, after two high-scoring games, the defenses are poised to step up and make this series a defensive battle.
Barkov, Bouchard & Other Skaters Poised for Big Games
The first two games were defined by the star players who stepped up. McDavid and Draisaitl led the Oilers with three goals and nine assists. Sam Bennett and Brad Marchand took over for the Panthers, with six combined goals. The next two games will be about the stars who haven’t stepped up yet but are poised to do so.
The big name that comes to mind is Aleksander Barkov. He led the Panthers in points through three rounds and is a non-factor so far against the Oilers. He hasn’t recorded a point in the two games thus far and must step up for the Panthers. The subsequent part to Barkov playing well is that Sam Reinhart must also do his part, as he’s one of the elite scorers in the game who hasn’t scored in this series.
The Oilers are getting a lot from Evan Bouchard, who is making an impact on both ends. Yet, it seems like Game 3 and Game 4 are where they’ll get the most from him, like a big shot that leads to the Oilers in a one-goal win. Speaking of defense, this is where Darnell Nurse will stand out. He’ll be pivotal in limiting the Panthers and their physical play, notably Bennett and his line.
There is some irony in mentioning the players poised for a big game. After all, the next two games can be low-scoring, where only a few skaters stand out. Then again, the ones who will are the ones who defend, which is where Bouchard, Nurse, and the Panthers defensemen come into play.
The Kris Knoblauch vs Paul Maurice Coaching Duel
One of the games within the game heading into the Final was the head coach chess match. Kris Knoblauch and Paul Maurice have made the right decisions and managed their rosters to give their teams enough of an edge to make a difference in the playoffs. The Knoblauch challenge on the goaltending interference in Game 1, a call that kept a Panther goal on the board and gave them another goal via the power play, looked like the first of many consequential decisions that would decide the series.
Otherwise, early on, it’s been Maurice with the quick trigger. He’s shuffled the lines and pivoted to get the Panthers back in the series. They were a one-line team for most of Game 1, and that needed to change. The first two games were also fast-paced, something Knoblauch wanted to see from the Oilers as they’d prefer to play that way.
Those two factors favor Knoblauch and the Oilers, making it seem like he has the edge. The catch is Maurice knows this series is going the distance and is a marathon. He’s coaching the Panthers that way, with the intention of wearing down the Oilers by the time Games 6 and 7 roll around. The first two games went to overtime, and the Panthers look like the team with more in the tank, which will have them playing their brand of slow and physical hockey by the end of the series. So, Knoblauch has the edge but only at the moment, and this series, as we expected, is far from over.
The Dallas Stars are the ideal landing spot for a coach
Rarely, if ever, does a head coaching spot like the Dallas Stars open up. Sure, they are coming off a tough series exit and look like a team a tier below the Oilers. However, they are the ideal team for any coach to join. The Stars have elite talent, depth, and a roster on the cusp of Cup contention. Reaching the Western Conference Final three times in a row was a case in point of that.
With a roster built to win the Cup and the expectations to do so, a veteran coach seems like the route for general manager (GM) Jim Nill to take. It’s like the Detroit Red Wings opening in the early 2000s, a team that brought in coaches, notably Mike Babcock with the hope of him leading them to the Cup. Speaking of Babcock, he’s the type of coach, him and Darryl Sutter, who seem like the right fit for a Stars team, as they’ve won before and proven they can get a great team over the hump.
It’s why it was surprising to hear that the leading candidates are younger, startup-type coaches. Jay Woodcroft, for example, is that coach, and to a lesser degree, Todd Nelson in the American Hockey League (AHL) is like that as well. At first, this would be a surprise but diving deeper, this type of hire would work. Nill knows what he’s doing, and he’ll make a risky hire, yet one who can get the Stars over the finish line (or Finnish line with the number of players from Finland on their roster).
Quick Hits: Calder Cup check-in
- The Charlotte Checkers clinched their spot in the Calder Cup Final by sweeping the Laval Rocket. They also swept the Hershey Bears in the round before that, and look like a team that might never lose again. The Panthers affiliate, ironically, had their toughest series against the Providence Bruins, the Boston affiliate, who took them the distance. But as we’ve learned in recent years, once a Panthers team beats a Bruins team, they become indestructible.
- The Abbotsford Canucks also secured their spot in the Final in a much tighter series. They battled the Texas Stars in six games but a 4-2 victory in Game 6 secured their first appearance in the Calder Cup Final. The Canucks proved they can win with offense along with elite goaltending from Arturs Silovs, a blueprint for winning in the playoffs.
- The Stars head coach is Neil Graham, a long-time American Hockey League (AHL) coach who has had plenty of success with this team. He was asked about the coaching elephant in the room after Game 5, and it’s obvious that if he doesn’t get the job, he might get a coaching gig, at least an assistant one, somewhere else. It’s why Nill might make him the assistant with the NHL team even if he hires someone else.
