What to do for an encore? Last season, the Washington Capitals had a milestone 50th season. They won the top seed in the Eastern Conference with an 111-point season. Meanwhile, they saw Alex Ovechkin eclipse Wayne Gretzky’s career NHL goals mark despite missing 16 games with a broken leg. Moreover, the club won a playoff round in the postseason.
However, pundits seem to overlook the Caps again in their preseason predictions. Most pundits pick the Capitals to hover around the edge of the playoff bubble. Nevertheless, this team qualified for the playoffs two years in a row. Washington averaged 101 points in the last two seasons.
So, where does Washington really fit in this year?
Capitals had a quiet offseason
A lot of the muted forecasts stems from the Capitals’ relatively quiet offseason. A massive remake the summer before propelled a 20-point jump in the standings. Thus summer, the Caps made only minor moves. They added forward Justin Sourdif from the Florida Panthers and defenseman Declan Chisholm from the Minnesota Wild, certainly depth moves rather than the franchise-shaping ones made a year ago.
Youngster Ryan Leonard is the biggest overall addition to this year’s opening night roster from last October. Leonard struggled with just a goal and an assist in 17 total games with Washington last spring. It was an NHL reality check. It was also a motivation tool.
Leonard seemed to benefit from this September’s full training camp with Washington. He scored a pair of goals in preseason and seemingly gained more confidence as it progressed. He had a lackluster spring after joining the Caps from Boston College. Conversely, he seems poised to progress this fall.
A pair of other bubble forwards had good camps to earn a spot on the opening night roster, as Hendrix Lapierre had a pair of goals and six assists to cement one of the center roles after recording just eight assists in 27 games with Washington last year, and veteran forward Sonny Milano won his spot back with four goals and two assists in preseason after playing just three games in an injury-shortened campaign last year.
One key difference from last season
The roster is largely the same as the one that won the Metropolitan Division last season. With most of the roster intact, the Caps look to build upon the quick retool that vaulted Washington back into contention for their second Stanley Cup title.
The largest difference from last year? Washington has increased cap space at its disposal this season. Last season, the Capitals needed the LTIR allowance for Nicklas Backstrom and T.J. Oshie to create space for their offseason additions. The club’s actual salary level eclipsed $100 million in total.
However, this season with the salary cap increase, the team has opted to carry some cap space into the new season, which will allow them more flexibility come the trade deadline to fill the team’s needs. Unlike other teams that decided to use the increase in salary cap to make adds this summer, Washington punted on signings in the overheated market and will be more pragmatic on adding for a potential playoff push in spring via trade.
The Capitals and the Ovechkin question
Washington’s big question as the season progresses is if this indeed will be Ovechkin’s final NHL season. It seems unlikely the team’s captain will walk away if the team remains competitive. Moreover, much depends on whether he remains effective and happy with his ice time.
With an expiring contract, it is possible that 2025-25 will be his last run at a second Stanley Cup. The Capitals offered paper tickets this year to season-ticket holders for commemorative purposes. Meanwhile, just in case, national TV networks plan to broadcast the team’s last five regular-season games.
Ovechkin scored 44 goals last year. He enters this year just three goals shy of becoming the NHL’s first 900-goal scorer. That’s a lock.
However, Spencer Carbery may manage the veteran’s ice tie judiciously this season. Consequently, it probably means a drop in regular-season goals from his 56-goal pace of last season. The spotlight of the Gretzky chase won’t be there as it was down the stretch last season. Conversely, the longer the captain’s future remains uncertain, the spotlight will burn again. Expect rampant retirement questions if his NHL future is in doubt down the stretch.
Who fills the reduced minutes up front?
The Caps will look to Leonard to help fill some of the role that Ovechkin plays in terms of goal production. Meanwhile, the organization may recall prospect Andrew Cristall from Hershey after an impressive camp should the offense sputter out of the gate.
Additionally, Washington will look for Dylan Strome to continue his success from last season and his point-per-game pace. Ditto Aliaksei Protas’ 30-goal campaign.
Offensively, the Capitals benefited from some unlikely players having career seasons last year. They will look to see the progression of this corps and the resurgence of Pierre-Luc Dubois offensively.
What happens if some of these players miss the mark? The Capitals have a few recall candidates in Hershey. However, increased cap space also opens trade possibilities. This year, the Caps are in better position to seek help from elsewhere to bolster the offense that was second overall in the NHL last season with 288 goals. Only the Tampa Bay Lightning scored more goals than Washington.
Capitals defense and goaltending
Defensively, another possible major departure looms. Veteran assistant captain John Carlson’s contract expires after this season. After a strong start last season, Carlson faded down the stretch . His postseason play was rather pedestrian, particularly in the second-round loss to the Carolina Hurricanes. The emergence of Washington prospect Cole Hutson, an offense-minded puck mover playing his sophomore season at Boston University, could make Carlson more expendable. Side note: Cole Hutson is the younger brother of 2024-25 Calder Trophy-winning defenseman Lute Hutson.
Goaltending-wise, Washington is probably in the best shape it’s been since the Stanley Cup year of 2017-18. The Capitals boast three solid options in net. Logan Thompson is likely to getting more of a traditional starter’s role this season. He splitting time with Charlie Lindgren last year. Meanwhile, very strong camp by Clay Stevenson put a depth option in the mix in case of an injury to one of the other two.
Thompson recorded a sparkling .910 save percentage last season and posted a 31-6-6 record, and added a .917 playoff save percentage despite Washington’s quick exit in the second round. He should earn more starts this season than last year’s 43. Meanwhile, Lindgren should still get a decent number of turns in the Washington cage.
Despite rumors Stevenson could be claimed on waivers by another team, he cleared. He reported to the Hershey Bears. If he plays well in his new role as the Bears’ No. 1 goalie, the Capitals should be confident in their goaltending depth.
Final thoughts and predictions before the opener
So, what does this all mean for Washington in the coming season?
Most likely, Washington won’t get to the 111-point total again. However, the team has bigger fish to fry. It behooves the club to conserve more energy during the regular season. Make no mistake, however. This team should compete for another Metro Division title. As of now, the Carolina Hurricanes are Washington’s biggest challenger in the division., Barring injury, the Capitals will finish in one of the top two spots in the division. Look for a point total in the low triple digits.
As for Ovechkin, he likely tallies around 30 goals this season/ He’ll easily pass the 900 career goal mark sometime in October. Prediction: look for a one-year extension around the All-Star break. That will set up a more formal NHL farewell campaign in 2026-27. Thereafter, he’ll head off to Dynamo Moscow for a true farewell tour before he retires.
The Capitals will rely on some of their younger talent this year to see if they can emerge. If they don’t, Washington will be one of the more active teams at the deadline. They’ll add Hutson at least in reserve upon completion of the Terriers’ season.
While not quite the dramatic turnaround and record-setting of last season, this year’s Capitals certainly will be worth keeping your eyes on.
