In the biggest regular season game thus far the Pittsburgh Penguins put their biggest goal total of 2025-26 on the board. It was an 8-3 drubbing of the New York Islanders and a big step forward towards the postseason. A postseason that has been elusive the past three seasons. While the victory does not secure the Penguins postseason ticket, it does make the path more favorable.
Per Moneypuck the Penguins are up to a 83.9% chance to make the playoffs after last night’s victory with the Islanders and Columbus Blue Jackets hovering around 50%
Hockey Stats has the Penguins at 91.2% this morning with a chance to get to 95.7% in a victory over a desperate Detroit Red Wings this evening
Last night, in the biggest game of the season, the Penguins started slow. The game script looked like one the Islanders have implemented many times over the course of the season. Bend but don’t break in the defensive zone, allow Ilya Sorokin to do his thing, and then weaponize their offense in transition. This success is predicated on Ilya Sorokin being one of the best goaltenders on earth, which he is, but wasn’t last night.
The Penguins had a five goal second period and when they got to seven in the third period Sorokin was done for the night. The Penguins earned a huge two points and the Islanders have an uphill climb.
Mantha spectacular
Anthonly Mantha’s signing was a huge difference maker in the Penguins season this year. Coming off a major knee injury he has bounced back at age 31 to put up a career high in goals (29) and points (57) shattering the previous highs of 25 and 48.
Mantha finished the game last night with two goals and an assist. Truth be told, I was actually frustrated with his play early in the game. He had multiple turnovers where he blindly gave the puck away, the second of which led to the Islanders getting a mini-breakaway while on the PK. It led to a Sidney Crosby penalty, which led to an Islanders power play goal.
It was jarring because I think Mantha has been very responsible with the puck this year and given that it was the biggest game of the year those out of character mistakes can sometimes be the difference.
Instead, Mantha dug deep and put on a master class for the rest of the game. His hands are splendidly smooth and I love his forehand backhand five-hole deke that he has deployed on multiple occasions this season. His game score was a season best for a Penguins forward
The Penguins aren’t where they are without Mantha. He’s been a huge part of the team’s success. I think Kyle Dubas has to make a concerted effort to keep him around. He is 31 years old, but the Penguins also have about 50M in cap space. You could dial up the AAV and shorten the term and it would have no major impact on the Penguins salary structure moving forward.
Crosby returns
There was a very welcoming sight during warmups before the game. Sidney Crosby was on the ice going through his very deliberate routine. He returned to the lineup and he did what he has done many times before, putting up multiple points in a game against the Islanders.
Sidney Crosby has 142 points in 93 games played against the Islanders. The 142 points is the most he has against any team.
He finished with two helpers last night and is on pace to continue his impressive streak of having a point per game in every single season he’s played in
How Swede it is
Erik Karlsson has been out of this world since the Olympic break. He has received proper accolades far and wide for his caliber of play. However, he is not the Swede I’m talking about right now. Rickard Rakell has been fantastic during this most recent stretch.
Rakell has 17 points in his last 13 games with eight goals during this stretch. Coming off a career season last year he had a slower start to this campaign, mainly due to a wrist injury. That was then and this is now. Ricky Raks is on fire and has helped keep the Penguins afloat while Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin have missed chunks of time from the lineup.
Last night, he had a career first, a shorthanded goal. It was a huge goal with the Islanders looking to take a 4-1 lead on the Penguins. Instead, it was a 3-2 game and it became very feasible for the Penguins to come back.
It was an insanely good play to receive the bouncing puck the way he did and settle it so he and Bryan Rust could even have a chance at attacking the Islanders zone. It was a text book 2v2. They used a crossing scissor play to create a time and space buffer for Rust and then Rakell immediately went hard to the net. Rust hit Rakell with the small opening they created and the Penguins were in business.
This can be the benefit of using skilled players on the PK. Not a bad idea when you are trailing in a big game. Shorthanded goals are huge in shifting the odds during a game and this one was no different.
No time to relax
It was a huge victory on Long Island. The Penguins should feel good about themselves. However, they don’t have time to dwell on it. The Red Wings were already in Pittsburgh waiting on the Penguins for tonight’s matchup. It is another high leverage game for both teams. The Red Wings are playing for their playoff lives and haven’t played since Saturday. Here’s the significance of tonight
Potentially helping the cause for Pittsburgh could be Evgeni Malkin’s return to the lineup. He practiced in full with contact before the Penguins left for Long Island.
Malkin’s return would further help the Penguins allocate their forward resources more evenly throughout the lineup, just like how it helped immensely last night when Sid returned. I would return to the following top nine if he is back
Rakell-Crosby-Rust
Chinakhov-Novak-Malkin
Mantha-Kindel-Brazeau
Not too bad when your team’s leading goal scorer can be placed on the third line and it makes sense.
It should be a playoff environment tonight at PPG Paints Arena. Something that hasn’t been the case in a number of years. Here’s to another two points.
