Augello: Leafs Look to TCB before July

[Bill Meltzer]

Leafs To Take Care Of Business Before July

[monkeypunk]

So many unknowns, but let’s take certain assumptions as reality:

1. Marner is gone.
2. They resign Tavares for about $5.5m
3. They resign Knies for about $7.5m
4. They resign Lorentz for about $1.35m
5. I think they will trade Robertson
6. Getting into only 1 game in the playoffs, they are going to trade Kampf
7. Reaves remains in the minors and they can resign Holmberg for anything under $1.1m and he becomes a no risk asset. Same with Pacioretty, but I think he could be done.

That puts $16.25m on the table and leaves 9 forwards signed (@ 47.95m), that looks something like this:

Knies – Matthews – 1RW
Tavares – 2C – Nylander
McMann – Domi – 3RW
Lorentz – Laughton – Jarnkrok

And the standard 6 D (24.827m):

McCabe – Tanev
Rielly – Carlo
OEL – Benoit

With Stolarz and Woll (6.167m) and another $300k in dead cap from burying Benning and Reaves.

Is Easton Cowan ready ($905k)? Steeves (Group 6, so they could resign him for probably $875k)? Do they go after Bennett as a 2C? Ehlers to compliment Matthews and Knies? Do they promote Domi and bump up Laughton to go for an affordable 4C? What is the 3rd line’s identity? Guys like Marchand, Tanev or Rielly Smith bring levels of compete we haven’t seen consistently.

Personally I’d probably still aim for Bennett as the 2C ($7.5m), Tanev ($2m) and Smith ($2.5m). I’m also a really big fan of Pius Suter, who is what we really wanted David Kampf to be.

You’re gonna miss Marner, but instead of leaning into trying to rebuild a Marner in the aggregate (to use my fancy Moneyball words), you change the dynamic to make the bottom 6 even tougher and better. Round it out and toughen it up.

[Unholy_Goalie]

So many unknowns, but let’s take certain assumptions as reality:

1. Marner is gone.
2. They resign Tavares for about $5.5m
3. They resign Knies for about $7.5m
4. They resign Lorentz for about $1.35m
5. I think they will trade Robertson
6. Getting into only 1 game in the playoffs, they are going to trade Kampf
7. Reaves remains in the minors and they can resign Holmberg for anything under $1.1m and he becomes a no risk asset. Same with Pacioretty, but I think he could be done.

If #1 happens, the Leafs are fucked. You can play “money puck” with depth. You can’t replace Marner. Matthews gets worse, Knies gets worse, the PP gets worse. I’ve been asking this question for weeks, can anybody name the team that lost their #1 point scorer as a UFA and won a Cup after? Has that ever happened? Is that common? I think we just witnessed what happens when you try to win a Cup with a team like Carolina because that’s what happens when you try to replace a star (Rantanen) with spare parts and go up against Florida.

If #2 happens, the Leafs are extra fucked. Tavares is not worth a dime more than 2 million. Why? Because he’s so useless defensively, you’d need to spend another 5+ million to put him with players that compensate for his defensive ineptitude.

#3 is an overpayment. Leafs can’t afford to give him that much, that soon. Give me a 3 year bridge deal. If he proves he’s worth big money, give him Domi’s cap hit when his contract expires.

#4 is also an overpayment. The home town kids have to stay at league minimum. Lorentz was offensively useless in the playoffs. Leafs need to keep these 4th liners under 1 million.

#5 absolutely.

#6 hopefully. Perfect example why you can’t give Lorentz 1+ million.

#7 Reaves and Holmberg both suck, let them both go. Pacioretty can come back for league minimum. If he’s done, that would suck, he was great in the playoffs. Hopefully, the drive to get a Cup is enough to make him try it again.

That puts $16.25m on the table and leaves 9 forwards signed (@ 47.95m), that looks something like this:

Knies – Matthews – 1RW
Tavares – 2C – Nylander
McMann – Domi – 3RW
Lorentz – Laughton – Jarnkrok

Again, I’m sorry, but this is a sad sack of shit of a team with most of the same guys who were big contributors to the reasons this team did not succeed.

McMann had 0 playoff goals. Domi had some great moments in the playoffs but absolutely sucks defensively. He can’t play center. Much less, a shutdown center on the 3rd line.

The 4th line is more of the same garbage. I’ll give Lorentz and Laughton another chance (gave up a 1st rounder and a top prospect for him so we’re stuck with him), but Jarnkrok has done nothing but proven he is completely useless in the playoffs. Another guy with 0 goals, no size, not enough hitting, not good enough when the games matter. Absolute zero interest in bringing him back at 2+ AAV to play as a 4th liner. Send him to Columbus or some place where they’ll be happy just to make the playoffs.

And the standard 6 D (24.827m):

McCabe – Tanev
Rielly – Carlo
OEL – Benoit

With Stolarz and Woll (6.167m) and another $300k in dead cap from burying Benning and Reaves.

Leafs can’t afford to bring back Rielly both for the cap and for his poor play. He absolutely sucks defensively and since he can’t be used on the PP effectively anymore, he doesn’t score enough to make up for it. The Leafs blueline badly needs another RHD. You can’t afford to have Benoit playing on his off side again. If OEL can be used in offensive situations, the Leafs could afford to replace Rielly with a depth LHD and sign a RHD to make sure they have 3LHD and 3RHD.

Is Easton Cowan ready ($905k)? Steeves (Group 6, so they could resign him for probably $875k)? Do they go after Bennett as a 2C? Ehlers to compliment Matthews and Knies? Do they promote Domi and bump up Laughton to go for an affordable 4C? What is the 3rd line’s identity? Guys like Marchand, Tanev or Rielly Smith bring levels of compete we haven’t seen consistently.

Personally I’d probably still aim for Bennett as the 2C ($7.5m), Tanev ($2m) and Smith ($2.5m). I’m also a really big fan of Pius Suter, who is what we really wanted David Kampf to be.

Cowan isn’t big enough to be ready that young. I think you get 40 games out of him before he hits a wall. Can’t possibly expect him to play 82 games and be effective in the playoffs at his size and age. Steeves is a career AHLer.

I’d love to sign Bennett and Marchand but what are the actual odds of them leaving better weather, lower taxes, less pressure and a better team to join this shit show that is the Toronto Maple Leafs? I could see some players viewing the Leafs as an upgrade (especially if you overpay them) but Bennett and Marchand would be shooting themselves in the foot to join the Leafs.

Tanev isn’t worth 2 million. He had 22 points. If he wants to play with his brother, he takes a discount. I could see Smith signing 2.5 to play in Vegas, but not for the Leafs. He’d cost at least 3.5-4.5 given his playoff pedigree.

Pius Suter is another Jarnkrok / Kampf. Don’t see the benefit of bringing in another smallish, soft player with no proven playoff resume.

You’re gonna miss Marner, but instead of leaning into trying to rebuild a Marner in the aggregate (to use my fancy Moneyball words), you change the dynamic to make the bottom 6 even tougher and better. Round it out and toughen it up.

I’m sorry, but if that’s the Leafs team next year, they won’t get out of the 1st round. Looking at the UFA list, there is only one player who is capable of filling the offensive role of Marner and he’s way past his prime; Patrick Kane. If the Leafs brought in Kane, I could see him scoring 70-80 points with a lot of PP time. But the defensive part of his game is non-existent at this point of his career. He’s also probably going to be injury prone too. If Marner ends up walking, the Leafs will not get better or succeed in the playoffs with this field of UFAs. Losing Marner for nothing will be a giant step backwards that this team probably won’t recover from fast enough before it’s time for Matthews to also walk as a UFA. Because when Matthews reaches UFA status the next time, why the fuck would he stay?

[monkeypunk]

If #1 happens, the Leafs are fucked. You can play “money puck” with depth. You can’t replace Marner. Matthews gets worse, Knies gets worse, the PP gets worse. I’ve been asking this question for weeks, can anybody name the team that lost their #1 point scorer as a UFA and won a Cup after? Has that ever happened? Is that common? I think we just witnessed what happens when you try to win a Cup with a team like Carolina because that’s what happens when you try to replace a star (Rantanen) with spare parts and go up against Florida.

I’m not choosing to get rid of Marner, I’m of the opinion that he has no interest in returning and I’m further of the opinion that the Leafs have little interest in him taking up nearly 15% of the cap. The problem isn’t solely Marner, it’s general construction when you have too many guys providing too few 50/50 wins – Marner, Matthews, Nylander, Domi, Tavares, Rielly, Robertson, Holmberg – and the guys they were paying specifically to win those types of battles in Kampf and Jarnkrok – all lost way more than they won.

You continue to be of the opinion that an NMC isn’t an obstacle but it can be. That list of assumptions is based on logical expectation – Rielly, Nylander and Matthews all have NMCs. Would it be preferable to trade Nylander and keep Marner? Maybe – but it would be difficult, probably not return a fair return, and continue to keep too much high end imbalance against the cap. At some point it’s not about 1 player. It’s about reconstructing the team to win more of those battles. So if you need top-end talent to go and you need to throw out some of the low-end guys who also aren’t cutting it and you end up losing Marner, Tavares, Robertson, Holmberg, Jarnkrok and Kampf and bring in guys who win pucks – like Marchand, Smith, Bennett, Tanev and Suter – you’re better off for it. If Tavares is affordable, he presents decent offense – especially if he has someone on his line who can provide physicality and win pucks – so I don’t discount him returning, because he has value.

If #2 happens, the Leafs are extra fucked. Tavares is not worth a dime more than 2 million. Why? Because he’s so useless defensively, you’d need to spend another 5+ million to put him with players that compensate for his defensive ineptitude.

This is where a Sam Bennett comes in. Yeah, Tavares does suck defensively – but most of it comes from having him not play centre. Put him on the wing where he can perform a decent role and give him someone who will win pucks and be physical and both he and Nylander would benefit. It’s like having Pacioretty on steroids.

Does he want to come here? Word is that Bennett has only two destinations in mind – Florida and Toronto. So yeah, there’s a chance. Similarly with Marchand – he wants an east coast contender, so he can play at a high level and be near family. Toronto, Florida and Tampa would all fit that bill nicely for him.

#3 is an overpayment. Leafs can’t afford to give him that much, that soon. Give me a 3 year bridge deal. If he proves he’s worth big money, give him Domi’s cap hit when his contract expires.

#4 is also an overpayment. The home town kids have to stay at league minimum. Lorentz was offensively useless in the playoffs. Leafs need to keep these 4th liners under 1 million.

Knies is coming in over $7m and has earned it. $7.5m is the new $6.4m and a 22 year old who just put him 29 goals and 58 points fits into that range. Keller signed for $7.2m coming in with worse numbers – and that equates to $8.4m in a $95.5m cap world.

Lorentz played for $775k last year but he did leave money on the table and while I suspect he’d do so again, he’s a very effective bottom-6 player who can PK very well – among leaf penalty killing forwards, he led the team in both GA/60 and xGA/60. He deserves a raise and he’s a player the team would do well to keep.

#5 absolutely.

#6 hopefully. Perfect example why you can’t give Lorentz 1+ million.

Not really since Kampf played 1 atrocious game, and Lorentz played all 13, and was still the top guy in xGA/60 on the PK. You need role players and you need guys who win battles – Lorentz is both.

Again, I’m sorry, but this is a sad sack of shit of a team with most of the same guys who were big contributors to the reasons this team did not succeed.

McMann had 0 playoff goals. Domi had some great moments in the playoffs but absolutely sucks defensively. He can’t play center. Much less, a shutdown center on the 3rd line.

The 4th line is more of the same garbage. I’ll give Lorentz and Laughton another chance (gave up a 1st rounder and a top prospect for him so we’re stuck with him), but Jarnkrok has done nothing but proven he is completely useless in the playoffs. Another guy with 0 goals, no size, not enough hitting, not good enough when the games matter. Absolute zero interest in bringing him back at 2+ AAV to play as a 4th liner. Send him to Columbus or some place where they’ll be happy just to make the playoffs.

At the end of the day, my post was basically about what you have. If I was remaking the lines, and going with a combination of what I’d like to do combined with the challenges I think they face (like losing Marner), I’d probably think this way:

Knies – Matthews – Domi
Tavares – Bennett – Nylander
Marchand – Faksa/Suter – McMann
Lorentz – Laughton – Tanev

Your top-3 lines all have size, board battle, shooting, net presence and passing. The 4th line is an energy puck hound line. As I said, I want more compete and I want a metric fuckton more 50/50 wins.

[Unholy_Goalie]

I’m not choosing to get rid of Marner, I’m of the opinion that he has no interest in returning and I’m further of the opinion that the Leafs have little interest in him taking up nearly 15% of the cap. The problem isn’t solely Marner, it’s general construction when you have too many guys providing too few 50/50 wins – Marner, Matthews, Nylander, Domi, Tavares, Rielly, Robertson, Holmberg – and the guys they were paying specifically to win those types of battles in Kampf and Jarnkrok – all lost way more than they won.

The amount of money you need to keep Marner at even 13 million, is found when you get rid of Rielly and Tavares. I’ll take the 100 point player in his prime over the two guys on the wrong side of 30 who absolutely suck defensively every, single, time. It’s not just about next year, it’s about the next 4-5 years. Marner gives us more chances at 27 to win than Tavares at 35+ and Rielly at 31+.

You continue to be of the opinion that an NMC isn’t an obstacle but it can be. That list of assumptions is based on logical expectation – Rielly, Nylander and Matthews all have NMCs. Would it be preferable to trade Nylander and keep Marner? Maybe – but it would be difficult, probably not return a fair return, and continue to keep too much high end imbalance against the cap. At some point it’s not about 1 player. It’s about reconstructing the team to win more of those battles. So if you need top-end talent to go and you need to throw out some of the low-end guys who also aren’t cutting it and you end up losing Marner, Tavares, Robertson, Holmberg, Jarnkrok and Kampf and bring in guys who win pucks – like Marchand, Smith, Bennett, Tanev and Suter – you’re better off for it. If Tavares is affordable, he presents decent offense – especially if he has someone on his line who can provide physicality and win pucks – so I don’t discount him returning, because he has value.

NMC is an obvious obstacle. It just isn’t an insurmountable obstacle. It exists to give the players an opinion on the matter of where they land. But when a team goes to a player and says “we don’t want you here anymore”, they eventually will move on.

As a hypothetical, yes, Nylander being traded is better than Marner walking as a UFA. But that would never be my plan A. It would be much more preferable to move the rest of the dead money and keep Nylander.

This is where a Sam Bennett comes in. Yeah, Tavares does suck defensively – but most of it comes from having him not play centre. Put him on the wing where he can perform a decent role and give him someone who will win pucks and be physical and both he and Nylander would benefit. It’s like having Pacioretty on steroids.

I’m all for winning more battles. But we have to realize that the guys we want will not come here.

I don’t see Tavares as having value at anything over 3 million. Look at Duchene in Dallas. Tavares requires more money than he saves in line mates just to have him break even. And he’s only going to get worse as he ages. Tavares, at his best, didn’t get the job done. I don’t see how his pajamas are going to get the job done at 35+.

Does he want to come here? Word is that Bennett has only two destinations in mind – Florida and Toronto. So yeah, there’s a chance. Similarly with Marchand – he wants an east coast contender, so he can play at a high level and be near family. Toronto, Florida and Tampa would all fit that bill nicely for him.

The “word” is Bennett needs another team to leverage to get a better deal from Florida. His team has gone to the Cup Final twice in a row, won a Cup, might win another, has better weather, better taxes, less pressure and a better team. Sorry to say but Bennett actually coming to Toronto is less than 5% likely. He’d have to be an absolute moron to leave his situation to join the Leafs. Additionally, given his style and his age, can the Leafs really afford to spend 7.5+ long term on a guy who is going to be signed until 35 with a career high of 51 points? I loved the idea of adding Sam Bennett when he was in Calgary because he would cost nothing to acquire and his best years were ahead of him. But Bennett at 30+ looks like a Clarkson, Simmonds trap the Leafs have fallen into many times before.

Knies is coming in over $7m and has earned it. $7.5m is the new $6.4m and a 22 year old who just put him 29 goals and 58 points fits into that range. Keller signed for $7.2m coming in with worse numbers – and that equates to $8.4m in a $95.5m cap world.

Leafs have to play harder ball than that. A long term deal makes no sense given he’s only played two seasons and he has the benefit of playing with elite players. If the idea is to let Marner walk for nothing and then sign a player Marner directly helped to score as many goals and points as he did, this team really does want to implode. What happens when Knies gets 7.5 AAV, Marner leaves and Knies only scores 15 goals? Knies should be signed to a 3 year deal and he can get Domi’s salary when his contract expires. Knies reaches UFA status faster, the Leafs get a discount and more time to see if Knies deserves a big, long term contract when he proves it.

Lorentz played for $775k last year but he did leave money on the table and while I suspect he’d do so again, he’s a very effective bottom-6 player who can PK very well – among leaf penalty killing forwards, he led the team in both GA/60 and xGA/60. He deserves a raise and he’s a player the team would do well to keep.

Not really since Kampf played 1 atrocious game, and Lorentz played all 13, and was still the top guy in xGA/60 on the PK. You need role players and you need guys who win battles – Lorentz is both.

I like Lorentz but he still had 0 playoff goals. What he “deserves” is a lot different than what sacrifice he wants to make to stay on the Leafs, a team he clearly wants to play and win a Cup for. He can make more money and play somewhere else, or he can play for the Leafs. He has to decide one or the other but can’t have both. We made this same mistake with Kampf in years prior. And that didn’t end well for us. If the Leafs have to overpay their stars to stay, they can’t afford to keep 4th liners for anything other than league minimum. You can afford to lose a player like Lorentz. Bring in Max Comtois for league minimum. I’m sure he’d be happy to be back in the NHL. There are other options for lunch pail 4th liners than there is for any other role.

At the end of the day, my post was basically about what you have. If I was remaking the lines, and going with a combination of what I’d like to do combined with the challenges I think they face (like losing Marner), I’d probably think this way:

I agree we need to change the battle winners but it can’t come at the expense of losing Marner. And that is a major difference.

Knies – Matthews – Domi
Tavares – Bennett – Nylander
Marchand – Faksa/Suter – McMann
Lorentz – Laughton – Tanev

Your top-3 lines all have size, board battle, shooting, net presence and passing. The 4th line is an energy puck hound line. As I said, I want more compete and I want a metric fuckton more 50/50 wins.

I just don’t see Tavares as good enough to be on this team, would rather have Reilly Smith for the same price and probably play the role better.

Bennett and Marchand are not leaving Florida for the Leafs. They’d have to be idiots.

Don’t see McMann as part of a winning solution after his 0 goal playoff run. Would rather use his current value to trade him for a guy who throws 300-400 hits, maybe bring in a Jack McBain type for his spot on the 3rd line.

Out: McMann, Jarnkrok, Kampf, Rielly, Holmberg and Robertson.

Knies | Matthews | Marner
Smith | Jenner | Nylander
Domi | McBain | B. Tanev
Laughton | Blueger | Lorentz
Comtois

OEL | Tanev
McCabe | Carlo
Dumoulin | Tyler Myers
Benoit

Woll | Stolarz

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