The false dream of the UFA class of 2026

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  • #17299
    Metalhead
    Participant

    List looks great now ! Save cap room ! Help is only a contract away !
    I doubt it will look great next June. Will update occasionally as extensions or sign/trade deals happen.

    Yes Gladys, there are some less desirable 2026 UFAs on this list.
    They are there to help show how the list diminishes before 07/01/2026.

    “Already Extended” list:
    Thatcher Demko

    “Pending UFAs” list:
    Connor McDavid
    Kirill Kaprizov
    Kyle Connor
    Martin Necas
    Adrian Kempe
    Andre Kuzmenko
    Rasmus Andersson
    Jack Eichel
    Alex Tuch
    Adam Lowry
    Patrik Laine
    Artemi Panarin
    Jacob Trouba
    John Carlson
    Viktor Arvidsson
    Oliver Bjorkstrand
    Christian Dvorak
    Anders Lee
    Boone Jenner
    Mike Matheson
    Mattias Ekholm
    Cam Fowler
    Evander Kane
    Vlad Tarasenko
    Carson Soucy
    Adam Henrique
    Jake Walman
    Charlie Coyle
    Jean-Gabriel Pageau
    Mathieu Joseph
    Trevor van Riemsdyk
    Mason Marchment
    Radko Gudas
    Nick Schmaltz
    Jamie Oleksiak
    Alex Wennberg
    Alex Kerfoot
    Michael Bunting
    Erik Gudbranson
    Ilya Mikheyev
    Matt Dumba
    Jaden Schwartz
    Jordan Eberle
    Luke Schenn
    Logan Stanley
    Connor Murphy
    Jeff Skinner
    ***Goalies***
    Ivan Fedotov
    Anthony Stolarz
    Stuart Skinner
    Scott Wedgewood
    Connor Ingram
    Vitek Vanacek
    Jacob Markstrom
    Freddy Andersen
    Petr Mrazek
    ***old guys***
    Alex Ovechkin
    Evgeni Malkin
    Patrick Kane
    Anze Kopitar

    #7329
    Metalhead
    Participant

    Forums here and elsewhere, are speckled with posters advocating for their team leaving money available for the 2026 UFA class.
    “The 2025 UFA class is bad”. “Marner’s weak in the playoffs, Tavares sucks in the playoffs and is old.”
    Nelson, Giroux, Benn, are a combination of “old” “bad” “too expensive” and unlikely to leave their current team.

    Here’s the real problem for 2026, though:
    The UFA class of 2025 was a lot bigger/better 12 months ago.

    Draisaitl signed an extension before the season started.
    Rantanen made it to the trade deadline but still got extended.

    Some other potential 2025 free agents who got extended before reaching free agency:
    Jake Oettinger*
    Adin Hill*
    Juuse Saros*
    Linus Ullmark*
    Igor Shesterkin*
    Carter Verhaeghe*
    Mackenzie Blackwood*
    Logan Thompson* (I grouped the goalies to point out that the 2025 goalie UFA group didn’t always suck. It sucks now because most got extended)
    Esa Lindell
    Jake Guentzel (TBL paid a 3rd rounder to get their hands on him 1 day before free agency)
    Victor Hedman
    Neal Pionk
    Shea Theodore
    Jaccob Slavin
    Jakob Chychrun
    Pavel Buchnevich
    Travis Konecny
    I’m sure there are a few on this list that people will laugh about. It is not intended to be superstars only.
    The point is, 12 months ago they were on the 2025 UFA list just like the 2026 UFA class are all listed now. Fans were hoping many would hit free agency. They didn’t.
    Additional math for the 2026 UFA dreamers—
    The 2026/27 salary cap, which is the one that matters for signing the 2026 UFAs, is expected to be $104 million.
    That means teams have $16 million new cap money by then to sign their own UFAs. (+7.5 for 25/26, +8.5 for 26/27)
    So even if McDavid gets $16 million/year, it can all be done with cap money that did not exist for the hockey season that just ended.
    Kaprizov? More likely than McDavid, but Minnesota also has a ton of cap room coming free on July 1st from the Parise/Suter buyout reductions.
    Will any of Eichel, Connor, Laine or Necas make it to 7/1/2026 without an extension? Or a trade > extension like Rantanen?

    I would expect that the currently dreamy looking 2026 UFA class will look similar to the current 2025 class on 5/31/2026.

    Metalhead

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