It is a sad fact that after nine straight seasons of making the playoffs, the Toronto Maple Leafs have been reduced to battling for position at the bottom of the NHL standings to salvage something out of one of their disastrous seasons this century. Because of the mishandling of former GM Brad Treliving, the Leafs need to pick in the top five of the upcoming NHL Draft to keep their first-round pick, instead of surrendering it to the Boston Bruins as part of the Brandon Carlo deal.
Toronto seemed not to recognize this reality after the trade deadline, as they were mathematically still in the Eastern Conference playoff race, but not realistically in it. Winning meaningless games and earning points that moved the club up the standings was counterproductive, but head coach Craig Berube continued to play veterans in the lineup instead of promoting youngsters from the AHL Marlies to give them an opportunity in the NHL and to take advantage of the mistakes they were likely to make.
The Leafs seemed to grasp the reality of the situation last week, as they lost three straight in regulation, a 4-0 shutout to Washington, a 5-3 loss to the NY Islanders, and a 6-2 thrashing at the hands of the Florida Panthers on Saturday. Thanks to the Seattle Kraken winning two games in a row, and the Panthers and St. Louis posting wins on Saturday, Toronto now resides in 28th place.
If the Leafs lose one more game in regulation and the Kraken earn a point in their final three games, Toronto will have a 41.9% chance of winning one of the top three spots in the NHL Draft Lottery or staying at fifth overall, but still has a 58.1% chance of surrendering their pick to the Bruins if a team or teams below them move ahead of them by winning the lottery. The Leafs still mathematically have a chance of improving their odds of picking in the top five, as the Calgary Flames and New York Rangers are three points behind with two games to play.
Calgary and New York would have to earn three or four of a possible four points in their final games and the Leafs would have to lose both games in regulation, or at the maximum earn a loser point against the Dallas Stars or in their final game against Ottawa on Wednesday. In another bit of good news, the Leafs are on the precipice of getting a second-round pick in the trade with Los Angeles for Scott Laughton.
Laughton to the Los Angeles Kings for a conditional 2026 third-round pick, but the pick upgrades to a second-round pick if the Kings make the playoffs. LA holds a one point lead over Nashville for the final Western Conference wildcard spot, but also has a game in hand on the Predators. If the Kings defeat the Kraken and if San Jose beats the Preds in regulation, the Kings clinch a playoff spot. Also, if LA earns four of a possible six points in their final three games, no matter what Nashville does, the Leafs will get a second-rounder.
Based on their line rushes at the morning skate, GTA native Ryan Tverberg will make his NHL debut against the Stars, and Artur Akhtyamov will make his second start of the season. Tverberg, 24, has 32 points (14 goals, 18 assists) in 61 games with the Marlies, and is the third player from the Leafs 2020 NHL Draft to make their debut this season.
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