The Toronto Maple Leafs return to action on Tuesday in Boston against the division rival Bruins, who are in the midst of a battle for an Eastern Conference playoff berth. Of course, the backdrop for the contest is the trade made between the two clubs last March that sent Fraser Minten and a top-five protected 2026 first-rounder to Beantown for defenseman Brandon Carlo. That trade is being labeled as catastrophic by some, but the final chapter on the deal will not be written until the NHL Draft Lottery in May, when it is determined whether the Leafs will surrender their top pick or keep it in a very strong 2026 Draft.
The focal point of tonight’s game will be Minten, the 21-year-old who was treasured by the Leafs organization after being selected in the second round of the 2022 Draft, and showed some ability in brief stints in Toronto, but has blossomed in Beantown, scoring 16 goals in 70 games for the Bruins. Very respectable totals for an intelligent kid, and it is very possible that he will continue to progress to the level of a 25 to 30 goal scorer, but in a bit of trolling, Boston reportedly is moving Minten to the top line with David Pastrnak ahead of veterans Elias Lindholm or Pavel Zacha against his former club.
The real determining factor in this deal is the first-rounder, whom GM Brad Treliving could only get top-five protected instead of top-10, as most teams do. The explanation that the Leafs pushed to get it top-10 protected seems unlikely based on the piece by Chris Johnston of the Athletic, who indicated that after talks fell apart in trying to acquire Rasmus Andersson from Calgary, and after considering Rasmus Ristolainen or re-acquiring Luke Schenn, Toronto had to scramble to get the deal done with Carlo before the 3 pm deadline.
GM Brad Treliving apparently did not learn the lesson that has been apparent since he left Calgary in 2023: his former team will never trade with him. He tried to acquire Nikita Zadorov and Chris Tanev before the 2024 deadline to no avail, and then struck out on Andersson.
At this point, the only way to avoid a significant disaster is to finish with a top-five draft pick, and this week will be a big factor to whether the Leafs can accomplish that goal. After playing Boston, Toronto will head home to play the NY Rangers. The Rangers are six points in back of the Leafs and managed only 10 shots on goal in a 2-1 loss to Ottawa on Monday, 48 hours after the Leafs had 14 shots on goal in the loss to the Sens on Saturday. Following that, Toronto will begin a four-game Western road swing against the St. Louis Blues, who are just four points behind them.
If the Leafs can manage regulation losses in these three games, they will be in a much more fortuitous position to finish in the bottom five with less than three weeks to go in the regular season, but if they continue to compile points – even loser points in these games – then they will likely finish eighth or ninth in the standings, with a less than a 10% chance of winning the lottery.
Anthony Stolarz will get the start in goal for Toronto, and Jeremy Swayman will be between the pipes for Boston.
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