Each year The Athletic has reached out to general managers, executives, coaches, scouts and data analysts to put the top 150 players in tiers. They released their findings for this year and it should come as no surprise the Pittsburgh Penguins aren’t exactly well represented.
Here’s how the rankings came to fruition
As for the process: We start with a modeled output based on projected Net Ratings, an all-in-one stat that aims to measure a player’s contribution to his team’s goal differential. It combines a player’s production with his play-driving ability and accounts for the difficulty of his usage — zero means an average player and plus-10 means an elite one. First-line forwards start at plus-five while top-pair defensemen start a little lower, at plus-three. An average starting goalie comes in at plus-seven.
Then, after hours of internal deliberation, shuffling and re-shuffling based on where we believe the modeled output feels like it missed the mark, we settle on our initial tiered groups. That’s what lands in the hands of our panelists, who use it as a baseline for their own lists. Players move up, players move down, players are added and players are removed. Most follow-up calls start the same way: “Tell us where we’re wrong.”
The tiers are as follows:
Tier 1 MVP A top 10 player. Someone who is very likely to get serious trophy consideration at season’s end and whom championship-caliber teams are built around. The best player on almost any team in the league.
Tier 2 Franchise A top 30 player. Someone who is the best player on a contending team or second best on a championship-caliber team. An unquestionably elite player.
Tier 3 All Star A top 60 player. Someone who wouldn’t be the best player on a contender, but would be an important part of any contending or championship core. A strong top-line forward, above average No. 1 defenseman, or borderline top five goalie.
Tier 4 Star A top 100 player. Someone who would be a strong piece within a contending or championship core, but not a go-to option. An average top line forward, below average number one defenseman, or top 10 goalie.
Tier 5 Support A top 150 player. Someone who would offer strong support to a contending or championship core, but who wouldn’t be an integral piece within it. A below average top-line forward, a strong No. 2 defenseman, or an above average starter.
Tier 2 — Franchise
Sidney Crosby is at the very top of this ranking and listed as a 2A. There is an argument to be had he could maybe slip into tier 1 at the bottom, but that is splitting hairs. The fact he is cemented as pretty much a top ten player at age 38 is incredible. He is still outstanding and playing at a high level. In year’s past he would have Evgeni Malkin somewhere near him in the rankings, but those days are behind us. Crosby is the lone bright spot for this roster at the moment and still widely respected around the league.
Tier 5 Support
This is the new reality for the Penguins. On this list they don’t have any all stars or stars on the list. The next players up on the list are in the support tier.
First is Erik Karlsson who ranks as a 5c which is the third tier within this tier. The team success just hasn’t been there with ERik Karlsson’s PIttsburgh tenure and it likely never will given that he is going to be traded. I still support the trade even with hindsight. They got rid of bad contracts for the reigning Norris Trophy winner. While he didn’t come close to being a Norris caliber player in Pittsburgh he has been the Penguins best defenseman each year. I think he’s been pretty good to be honest. The one thing I did find myself wanting more from him was the power play. I think the power play with Karlsson on it has been an utter disappointment. Thus, making him a support level player and not in the star range at this point in time. I think he has potential to help an actual good team in the future. We’ll see where he ends up.
Bryan Rust also finds himself on the 5c tier and I think it is an appropriate ranking. He’s not quite a star, but he is the kind of player a championship caliber team would love to have playing regular minutes. He’s been such a steady force for years in the Penguins top six. He carries all the intangibles you want from a player, has a great work ethic, and has polished his skill the more years he has played in the league. He should carry some decent trade value to a team looking to get over the hump.
If you are looking for Evgeni Malkin or Rickard Rakell, they aren’t on here. Malkin has shown signs of slowing down and this upcoming year is likely his last in the league. He had one of the best careers we’ve ever seen and found himself near the tops of these kinds of lists for many many years. Malkin not being on the list is just a sign of the times and how tough things have gotten in Pittsburgh.
I have no quarrels about how the Penguins were treated here. They are in a rebuild and they are in one because they don’t have a lot of candidates to make a list like this. It will take some time to build things back up.
